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Topic: What's Going On In Russia? (Read 32173 times)

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #150
"influencers" from among the rubble (sic)
A Freudian slip? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #151
Wagner chief Prigozhin listed as passenger on plane that crashed with no survivors, Russian authorities say

So, Prigozhin is presumed dead now, due to an airplane crash near Tver, Russia. If true (the source for now is Russian media), it is not a coincidence, even though assuming that it's not a coincidence makes Putin too much of a mastermind plotter. Then again, his plotting is hollowing out whatever still keeps him standing.

Just before this news, Prigozhin published a video of himself in a desert, promising to make Russia great in Africa. So he was starting to get bravadocious again.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #152
When I was trying to figure out earlier what might follow from Prigozhin's march on Moscow, I factored in Prigozhin's undeniable service to Russia and to Putin personally. For example,
- troll factories and cyber campaigns to warp Western media space and elections process
- redirecting Africa's gold, diamonds and other mineral wealth to Russia instead of the West
- battle gains in Syria and Ukraine

These alone are quite substantial achievements, right? But additionally, Prigozhin was a personal friend of Putin since early 1990's, if not earlier. As so-called Putin's cook or chef, Prigozhin served as Putin's food taster, literally, and for other people as food poisoner via his catering companies.

By this very public execution, Putin indicates that none of this matters. Hopefully everybody will interpret this "message" correctly. When the service for the country does not matter and personal friendship also does not matter, then absolutely nothing matters. Therefore Putin cannot be trusted in anything whatsoever. The lesson for his inner circle is that there is no way to please Putin and earn his trust. Even Prigozhin could not maintain it to the end. The lesson for the world at large is that there is no way to appease Putin and ensure something like peace for our time. Handing the victory in Ukraine war to Putin and helping him save his face will not make Putin your partner, reliable or otherwise. It will just make you look stupid, trusting the least trustworthy autocrat in the world, and he will be sure to show it to you.

Putin has played all his cards now. Everybody should see that he is ready to go out with a bang. Putin is not worth sparing and Russia as it is is not worth sparing. Getting rid of Putin and of Russia as it is will be more of a relief than a regret, including to Russians.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #153
Yes, there is only one way a change of government can happen in Russia now.

Introducing the Russian Presidential election 2024 (a year also the EU and US can vote for Pro-Putin candidates, or not):

Kremlin Handpicks Putin’s 2024 Election Opponents

Should be safe for now, but while the oligarchs are largely out of power, pitting the other groups he depend on against each other is getting harder.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #154
A somewhat dated (but Europeans tend to be behind the curve...) interview with an American general:
https://youtu.be/iMUAaWK79Vc]https://youtu.be/iMUAaWK79Vc

(I'm especially interested in hearing ersi's reaction...
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #155
I know about the interview. Since Tucker Carlson's intro is a complete lie and the retired colonel is also solidly on the wrong side, there is no point watching it too closely.[1]

My reaction was some relief when Tucker Carlson was fired from Fox and had to move to Twitter. Except Musk rebranded it so Tucker cannot be said to be tweeting, but rather X-creting or such.

At first Tucker got rather high-profile guests to his interviews, such as Trump, Pence, Orbán, Robert F Kennedy and the retired colonel here, but more lately his guests are becoming laughable, such as the guy who claims to have dated Obama. Laughable and ridiculous guests are more appropriate to Tucker's own profile.
By "lie" and "wrong" I mean the moronic America-centredness, as if USA/Nato were fighting inside Ukraine or about to, and as if Russia were militarily ready for it. No. It's Ukraine fighting in Ukraine. No Nato member is ready to go fight in Ukraine. And Russia failed to achieve its goals already in the very beginning when nobody was yet helping Ukraine. Russia is now slowly retreating further and may crack again like last year. I would like to say that both speakers are severely afflicted by moral turpitude since they are blind to aggression in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but a more acute problem with them is their inability to analyse anything besides the America-centred angle, and even from that point of view they are absolutely blind to reality (namely the reality that USA is actually not fighting in Ukraine), so I must say that they are afflicted with total and complete turpitude.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #156
Good to see you've found a new word, ersi! Although using turpitude in the context of Russian/Ukrainian "conflicts" is outré... :)

I wonder what will happen if Biden (for whatever reason) doesn't have a second term?
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #157
You are obviously asking because in USA you guys are far behind the curve. You personally do not even grasp what the curve is. Biden's second term is irrelevant. Right now the most relevant event is that the House of Reps has no speaker. All aid to Ukraine needs to be approved by the House, but this procedure has broken down now.

Due to this, the momentum of Nato support to Ukraine can be expected to rapidly diminish. There is nothing to be said of EU's support for Ukraine. It was only kept up in the wake of USA's support for Ukraine, to not look too bad, so with USA's support gone, the EU will get back to its ordinary strategic partnership with Russia.

For me the EU has proven itself utterly worthless. I have been talking about Russia's drang nach Westen on this forum at the latest since Sochi olympics, based on geopolitical observers, intelligence experts and opinionated historians I have been reading. This tendency of Russia's should be decisively countered by the EU, because it is aggression happening at the EU's doorstep, but the EU has only been making it worse by negotiating with Putin the order in which he'd prefer to pick up pieces of land in his neighbourhood.

The EU has hardly ever attempted anything in response to real aggression close by. They had no clue what to do about the war in Bosnia, and whatever they have been doing ever since has been fruitless. Same with Kosovo. When Baltic countries were under hybrid attack, the EU kept encouraging pro-Russian moves. And in Nagorno-Karabakh right now, all Armenians have to flee or else they will be massacred. The EU does not even have a rhetorical statement regarding this. Instead the EU, Russia and US held secret talks days before Nagorno-Karabakh blitz.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #158
This is simply not correct, both on the EU and the US.

For the latter, the question is how much the Putin faction really rules Congress and the GOP. I think this was a Pyrrhic victory and that their influence will weaken rather than increase. But we are in the middle of the election campaign 2024, and that can affect the outcome in unpredictable ways. That said, expect a lot of new shipments to Ukraine and other supports in new ways. Now, 2025 and beyond may be a different story. Voting matters.

The EU has made the Baltic states secure, Ukraine is a more challenging story. Facts are: European military aid is increasing month by month, year by year. Non-military aid as well, but that goes without saying. It's the military aid that is new territory for the EU. Mind you, even with recent re-armament, there is no way we can compete with the absolutely humongous US stockpiles of weaponry.

However, in a reversal of the old joke, while Europe cannot outrun the US, we don't have to. We only need to outrun the bear.

That is a worst case though. A US capitulation would prolong the war in Ukraine with years. In part because we are less capable, the European re-armament will take a decade on average, in part because it would give Kremlin the glimmer of hope they somehow could win a losing war just by stubbornness and disinformation.

The Republican party used to make hawkishness their brand. The old party would have portrayed Biden as a lily-livered peacenik. How things have changed.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #159
This is simply not correct, both on the EU and the US. [...] Voting matters. [...] A US capitulation would prolong the war in Ukraine with years. 
These statements do not cohere. If the political orientation can change after a voting, then it is not sure whether I am correct or not. If USA capitulates, then I am correct about USA at least.[1]

Anyway, I presented a forecast and I have solid reasons for it. The fatigue of war in the West is visible by now. Public opinion about the war has been divided since day one (another triumph of Russian propaganda) and this matters as far as voting matters.

I also take particular issue with the claim that the EU has made the Baltic countries safer. Not too long ago you casually suggested "Russia picks up Estonia, we pick up Königsberg." This thinking is pretty mainstream in western EU and this is exactly my point: The western EU does not perceive eastern EU as EU's border whose integrity it should be the EU's responsibility to protect. The EU thinks its borders are freely negotiable. The only feeling the western EU members have about the eastern members is the way Germany feels about them: A buffer zone with Russia.[2] Russia matters more than the buffer zone and the buffer zone is negotiable. This is also the thinking of Russia. So, between EU and Russia, who is making Baltics safer? Neither. Nato maybe.

If my forecast is correct, then things are very bad. I do not want my forecast to be correct, but I have no reason to forecast differently.
Right now the frontrunners for speakership are Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. Which one is the better candidate? If you care about Ukraine, the correct answer is neither.
This point was conclusively proven with the Nordstream projects. Nordstream was built to secure gas delivery from Russia to Germany because, according to Russia, Ukraine was stealing from the pipelines that were going through Ukraine, and Germany thought that bypassing Ukraine would make the delivery safer. Thus, safety and security of the gas delivery mattered more than all other safety and security, be it safety and security of Ukraine or Baltics. Partnership with Russia mattered more than partnership with Ukraine or objections of the Baltic countries. To make the process smoother, Russia was permitted to corrupt an entire team of European prime ministers and kanzlers without any repercussions to any of them. Moreover, even during the full-scale invasion Germany never ever reduced its gas dependency from Russia. Germany's gas dependency from Russia was reduced by whoever blew up the pipelines, and this was not Germany. In conclusion, Germany has always been eager to make Baltic countries less safe and the EU has done nothing to mitigate Germany's behaviour.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #160
Biden's second term is irrelevant. Right now the most relevant event is that the House of Reps has no speaker. All aid to Ukraine needs to be approved by the House, but this procedure has broken down now.

Due to this, the momentum of Nato support to Ukraine can be expected to rapidly diminish. There is nothing to be said of EU's support for Ukraine. It was only kept up in the wake of USA's support for Ukraine, to not look too bad, so with USA's support gone, the EU will get back to its ordinary strategic partnership with Russia.

Sometimes it really sucks to be a Eastern European... But what you call "Biden's second term" is not irrelevant: Here in the States, the consensus is coalescing around the likelihood that Ukraine's компромат of Joe Biden will be meaningless, since the Democ-rats will abandon ship -to various non-extradition countries- and (sort-a) Republicans will have an extended chance to (sort-a) regroup — that is, see if they can reestablish the Republic.

Some people here are quite upset with (former) Speaker McCarthy. (He's from my state, and I know he's been a "professional" politician for his entire adult life — a bad sign! But he's been reliable and steadfast: And what he just did, refusing to run again for Speaker, shows that he quite understands the Democrats!) But I'm not.
He put the conservatives in Congress on point!
They now have to deliver...

Of course, ersi, you want the U.S. to supply Ukraine funds and weapons (because you know the EU is feckless...), and you have legitimate fears of Russian aggression. Your hope that NATO membership means what most people thought it meant may be naive.

All I can say is that you have a better chance with American republicans than American democrats. And an America continually weakened is not in your best interest.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #161
All I can say is that you have a better chance with American republicans than American democrats.
Really? Republicans of this century have been very bad for Nato. First they (W) rallied an alliance around Article 5 based on lies, making Nato an alliance of false causes, bringing about divisions with those who did not want anything to do with the false cause. Baltic countries of course went along enthusiastically, hoping to earn brownie points with Nato. (And now is the time to redeem the points.) Anyway, raising Article 5 based on lies was very damaging to Nato's image.

By now Republicans have devolved into Trumpites whose plan is to dissolve Nato. This is not what I'd call a better chance.

And an America continually weakened is not in your best interest.
The problem with America is that it is geographically too far away and will never care about anyone else's best interest, except via America's self-interest. Americans convert any and all issues into their own domestic policy, and if it doesn't convert, then it doesn't exist.

It is in Estonia's best interest to have a geopolitically self-conscious EU. This is not likely to happen ever, so we have to resort to second-rate and third-rate workarounds and fend off counterproductive baits like Macron's strategic autonomy. Unfortunately there is too much to fend off in the EU. The EU insists on shooting itself in the foot with a machine gun.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #162
By now Republicans have devolved into Trumpites whose plan is to dissolve Nato. This is not what I'd call a better chance.
As many in my country would ask, What is the purpose of NATO? Was it not to defend Europe from the Soviet Union?

With the Soviet Union dissolved, Europe might resume its fascination and repugnance with Russia... But Europe is somehow incapable of either treating honestly with Russia or defending itself from an aggressive (and irredentist) Russia? Hence NATO (i.e., the U.S.) must support (finance) the frustration of Russia's aims.

ersi, the United States has long preferred a neutrality regarding the perennial squabbles of Europe. (Those between the East and the West are of more recent origin, and compelling; but the ideology of Communism has so muddled the waters that what lies beneath the surface does not appear -clearly- to anyone.) Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?

As Ed Whelan noted in his most recent "Confirmation Tales" column:
Quote
If you ever wonder why a senator seems ill-prepared for a confirmation hearing, just remember that even a very talented teacher can do only so much for some students.

You presume that the U.S. is a pupil, to be taught — but most Americans (rightly) assume they've graduated to "free agent" status.

Europe can do what it wants. Russia can do what it wants. So, too, can China. But -while the Leftists decry it- the United States still says "Don't Tread on Me!"
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #163
Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?
I know it is very hard for you, but try to understand: This is not about you. It is about the country called USA. USA does its own thing without asking you.

Europe can do what it wants. Russia can do what it wants. So, too, can China. But -while the Leftists decry it- the United States still says "Don't Tread on Me!"
So, a few things have slipped under the radar for you. Namely, USA also does what it wants, always has. And nobody ever trod on USA. Nobody. Ever. It's USA who keeps treading. Examples from only this century: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia and Syria. All ended disastrously. And Trump's jab at Iran could have brought about another disaster.

Treading on others may bite back one day, the way it is biting back at European ex-colonial powers. For example, UK used to colonise India, but now they have an Indian prime minister.

Here I wrote a messy two-post review of two books by Peter Zeihan. He aims to forecast the future based on strong geographical determinism and a presupposition that USA is voluntarily retreating on the world arena. The forecast is that disaster follows for most countries because USA is no longer there to help, but some countries, most notably USA itself, are saved and will be happy due to blessed geography.

I happen to disagree. I do not see any signs of USA retreating. Packing up the military bases is not an easy or quick matter or even reasonable. There are no signs of it happening.

USA has strong colonial instincts and keeps behaving accordingly. USA is mostly happy and eager to meddle in other nations' affairs, even though it does so inconsistently, in phases, sometimes changes sides, loses interest or simply loses. A good tactic in these meddlings is to have a coalition of shared guilt. That's Nato.

 

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #164
Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?
I know it is very hard for you, but try to understand: This is not about you. It is about the country called USA. USA does its own thing without asking you.

Your attitude is quite understandable: You think no factions of the U.S. electorate have consequential effects on U.S. policy, let alone determinative effects... That's how all good Europeans think — or else you fear some faction of the electorate may actually succeed in retrieving the republic from the current mess.
You might be wrong!
———————————————————
What I think most confuses your analyses of U.S. politics is your failure to recognize the impact of the American Left's Maoist bent; and how badly that will affect the polity.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #165
What I think most confuses your analyses of U.S. politics is your failure to recognize the impact of the American Left's Maoist bent; and how badly that will affect the polity.
You are not in position to assess anybody's analysis because you do not have any facts on U.S. politics. Instead of facts you have completely ludicrous alternative facts, such as in this case American Left's Maoist bent.

The fact is that there are two right-wing parties in USA. Nobody in U.S. politics is left, much less Maoist. Or can you name somebody? At least one name? Yup, thought so.

Why not worry about the dictator wannabe in your politics, instead of non-existent Maoists? It would get you onboard with some facts for a change.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #166
As usual, you wave your hands — and ignore the reality that exists outside of you entrenched biases...
Sobeit.

(I must say I'm surprised to find no mention of this weekend's Hamas incursion into Israel on this site. Care to comment, on the lack of comment? :) )
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #167
As usual, you wave your hands — and ignore the reality that exists outside of you entrenched biases...
Sobeit.
Classic Trumpite/MAGA/Qanon projection.

I must say I'm surprised to find no mention of this weekend's Hamas incursion into Israel on this site.
There would have been no comment on Tucker either or the retired colonel without your opening it up for comments. You can do the same for the Israel/Palestine topic.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #168
I also take particular issue with the claim that the EU has made the Baltic countries safer. Not too long ago you casually suggested "Russia picks up Estonia, we pick up Königsberg."

Exactly. The Baltic States existed at the pleasure of whoever were the tsar of Russia (or not, when that tsar was Stalin). Without European friends they would not exist at all.

Estonia's total population is 1,321,365. That is the population of a suburb. The area is 45,339 km², that is half the size of a large farm, or the same area as Russia occupied in 2014. In early 2022 they grabbed three more Estonias, and then in the following year Ukraine has taken one Estonia back.

The best hope for Estonia would be Finland's Cold War strategy: arm to the hilt to make an invasion costly, while not aggravating Russia too much, and being useful. However Finland has four times the population of Estonia and almost eight times the land. As long as the tsar was friendly (at least not too belligerent), or couldn't be bothered Estonia should be fine. But he could show displeasure with Estonian policies by e.g. having a really big military exercise really close to the border.

In 2004 Estonia joined NATO and EU. That greatly improved the country's security and economic prospects. However it also gave the two organisations a serious headache. Joining them didn't in itself give Estonia any more weapons or soldiers, the protection was in the articles 5 and 42.7 respectively, promising that the others should consider coming to their aid if attacked.

NATO's strength and EU's reputation depends on fulfilling that promise, and Estonia became the Achilles heel. If Russia did attack, NATO wouldn't be able to stop them. Harass, certainly, NATO has air superiority even that far east. But Russia would get to the coast relatively speedily. NATO would have to make an "Operation Overlord"? Would NATO risk that, and a potential nuclear war, for a small, barely populated piece of land. A gambling tsar might just try.

In that context Estonia as a NATO and EU member might be more sovereign, able to make more decisions displeasing the tsar, but more at risk. Even an imperialistic Russia doesn't really need the Baltic States much, but could be a distraction if Russia was struggling with NATO elsewhere. Ukraine perhaps.


A likely wargaming outcome before the Russian invasion would be a swap: Russia could likely take and hold Estonia and good chunks of Latvia and Lithuania, but lose Kaliningrad.

Now the Estonian position is stronger, and the Russian weaker. Putin or successor might worry less about getting angry glares if they were to "denazify" the Baltic States, their relationship with the West is as bad as it gets, but their position is weakened.

If will be far easier to reinforce Estonia from Finland than from Poland (especially with a Suwalki capture). Russia can't expect air superiority or naval superiority over the Baltic Sea, and Sweden is a good staging point.

I think the tripwire strategy would have been sufficient, given that Russia has far too much other to lose. But you are moving up rank from level 1 to level 2, maybe in time touching 3.

Level 0: Full Finlandisation
Level 1: An invasion would not be cost-effective
Level 2: An invasion would cost the invader more than the defender
Level 3: Outcome of an invasion would be unpredictable
Level 4: An invasion would not be feasible

But that distraction, gaining Estonia, would not be worth it if Russia lost Kaliningrad, a naval base they actually need(ed).

We are beyond that now. An invasion of Estonia would be risky on its own terms. They could, and probably would, try some form of hybrid warfare, but probably only with implausible deniability.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-govt-says-estonia-has-linked-baltic-cable-pipeline-damages-2023-10-23/

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #169
The Baltic States existed at the pleasure of whoever were the tsar of Russia (or not, when that tsar was Stalin). Without European friends they would not exist at all.
Russia kinda cares if Estonia exists or not. Namely, when Estonia exists, Russia wants it to cease to exist. In contrast, our Western "friends" don't care at all. And your entire line of reasoning is a solid proof of it.

Historically, there was a conference at Yalta. At that conference our Western "friends" gifted away to Stalin far more than Hitler had given. Moreover, Hitler really did not mean to gift away anything. He stabbed Stalin in the back and tried to take all Russia to himself. Whereas our Western "friends" casually stabbed in the back ALL countries between Germany and Russia, giving them away to Stalin, narrowly missing Austria. They gifted all those countries away and sincerely meant it so. This is how little they care about any of those countries, Estonia included. Our Western "friends" do not care whether any of those smaller countries exist, but they love to prop up Russia.

It is good to know facts and have no illusions. It's an illusion to think that Estonia has Western friends. Westerners are who they always were: colonists, just like Russia. They play the game they always played: the colonial game with Russia. Despite their rhetoric, Westerners don't care about the colonised. Their complete cold-heartedness is clear from the fact that Westerners pretend as if the colonial times were in the past and no longer happening, when they clearly continue to colonise even now. They pay more attention to Russia who is a potential competing colonist. Colonists care about each other. They don't care about the colonised. So no, Westerners are not friends.

Over the past decade we have seen how Ukraine is being fed to Russia. All other countries between Germany and Russia can reasonably expect the same fate, if they make the mistake of relying on Germany, France, UK, or USA.[1] The best Estonia can do is to stir up some historical conscience to invite Westerners to stop repeating their past mistakes, but thus far this has only resulted in consistent evidence that Westerners have no conscience and are hell-bent on repeating past mistakes.

Would NATO risk that, and a potential nuclear war, for a small, barely populated piece of land. A gambling tsar might just try.
Being a nuclear coward means that there are no principles and no conscience. The West only has colonial instincts and respects the instincts of other colonial countries, dictators, autocrats and despots. Countries and peoples who never harmed anybody do not matter to our Western "friends".

But that distraction, gaining Estonia, would not be worth it if Russia lost Kaliningrad, a naval base they actually need(ed).
Assuming that Russia gives a damn about what anything is worth is a persistent delusion in the West. In reality, Russia only thinks "it's mine/ours" ("Наша!") and that's it. And in the big picture they think everything is theirs, somewhat like USA thinks. Worth it or not does not enter their mind.

We are beyond that now. An invasion of Estonia would be risky on its own terms. They could, and probably would, try some form of hybrid warfare, but probably only with implausible deniability.
Yet another very sad delusion in the West, as if hybrid warfare by Russia could or would happen at some point, instead of having been constantly battled for the past 20 or so years, if not longer. Russia's plausible deniability is there only for the useful idiots. With our Western "friends" so fast asleep and so hopelessly blind, there really is nothing left to say.
The historical character and geopolitical nature of these countries is colonial. Their primary instincts and behaviour are colonial. One might dispute this for Germany, as Germany was late to the post-exploration era colonialism. The answer to this is that with the permanent conquest of Estonia, Latvia and Prussia in 13th century Germany actually had a good headstart in the colonial games.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #170
You never read before you answer, do you? That may be efficient, but it is also like talking to a mirror.

Re: What's Going On In Russia?

Reply #171
Your post pretended to be an answer to my points. It wasn't, so I take the liberty to return the same service.

Your main thrust is that the West, and somehow Germany in particular, is some sort of security guarantee in Europe. The historical test of this assumption was how WWII unfolded. UK and France had promised to ensure Poland's safety and independence. They failed at their promises in 1939 and UK betrayed all semblance of such promises at Yalta.

This century, similar promises to Ukraine (Budapest memorandum) were put to the test and failed in 2014 and are failing right now. This is how much such promises are worth.

The best we, the betrayed countries, can do is to remind the fact that there were promises and can you please try better. Or at least not repeat the same mistake again. The result is that the mistakes are being repeated as we speak.

At any rate, there is no denial that such were the promises and that there was a complete and utter betrayal. Repeatedly. Oh, and what has Germany been doing all this time?  In 1939, Germany was Hitler. This century, Germany has been Schröder and Merkel and Scholz. Your only ground for assuming that Germany is any sort of security guarantee in Europe is absolute delusion.