Where debating everything under the sun is only the beginning

"influencers" from among the rubble (sic)

This is simply not correct, both on the EU and the US. [...] Voting matters. [...] A US capitulation would prolong the war in Ukraine with years. 

Biden's second term is irrelevant. Right now the most relevant event is that the House of Reps has no speaker. All aid to Ukraine needs to be approved by the House, but this procedure has broken down now.

Due to this, the momentum of Nato support to Ukraine can be expected to rapidly diminish. There is nothing to be said of EU's support for Ukraine. It was only kept up in the wake of USA's support for Ukraine, to not look too bad, so with USA's support gone, the EU will get back to its ordinary strategic partnership with Russia.

All I can say is that you have a better chance with American republicans than American democrats.

And an America continually weakened is not in your best interest.

By now Republicans have devolved into Trumpites whose plan is to dissolve Nato. This is not what I'd call a better chance.

If you ever wonder why a senator seems ill-prepared for a confirmation hearing, just remember that even a very talented teacher can do only so much for some students.

Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?

Europe can do what it wants. Russia can do what it wants. So, too, can China. But -while the Leftists decry it- the United States still says "Don't Tread on Me!"

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2023-10-05, 22:57:39

Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?

I know it is very hard for you, but try to understand: This is not about you. It is about the country called USA. USA does its own thing without asking you.

What I think most confuses your analyses of U.S. politics is your failure to recognize the impact of the American Left's Maoist bent; and how badly that will affect the polity.

As usual, you wave your hands — and ignore the reality that exists outside of you entrenched biases...
Sobeit.

I must say I'm surprised to find no mention of this weekend's Hamas incursion into Israel on this site.

I also take particular issue with the claim that the EU has made the Baltic countries safer. Not too long ago you casually suggested "Russia picks up Estonia, we pick up Königsberg."

A likely wargaming outcome before the Russian invasion would be a swap: Russia could likely take and hold Estonia and good chunks of Latvia and Lithuania, but lose Kaliningrad.

Now the Estonian position is stronger, and the Russian weaker. Putin or successor might worry less about getting angry glares if they were to "denazify" the Baltic States, their relationship with the West is as bad as it gets, but their position is weakened.

If will be far easier to reinforce Estonia from Finland than from Poland (especially with a Suwalki capture). Russia can't expect air superiority or naval superiority over the Baltic Sea, and Sweden is a good staging point.

I think the tripwire strategy would have been sufficient, given that Russia has far too much other to lose. But you are moving up rank from level 1 to level 2, maybe in time touching 3.

Level 0: Full Finlandisation
Level 1: An invasion would not be cost-effective
Level 2: An invasion would cost the invader more than the defender
Level 3: Outcome of an invasion would be unpredictable
Level 4: An invasion would not be feasible

The Baltic States existed at the pleasure of whoever were the tsar of Russia (or not, when that tsar was Stalin). Without European friends they would not exist at all.

Would NATO risk that, and a potential nuclear war, for a small, barely populated piece of land. A gambling tsar might just try.

But that distraction, gaining Estonia, would not be worth it if Russia lost Kaliningrad, a naval base they actually need(ed).

We are beyond that now. An invasion of Estonia would be risky on its own terms. They could, and probably would, try some form of hybrid warfare, but probably only with implausible deniability.

At first Tucker got rather high-profile guests to his interviews, such as Trump, Pence, Orbán, Robert F Kennedy and the retired colonel here, but more lately his guests are becoming laughable, such as the guy who claims to have dated Obama. Laughable and ridiculous guests are more appropriate to Tucker's own profile.