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Topic: Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 199531 times)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #150
And first came the smog, then acid rains, then ozone depletion. These are material facts. The model works.

And when it fails, you don't care; you are committed!. That's your version of science.

I am not committed. What happens is what happens.

The "model" has failed to work, for a great many years… Except in former Soviet Zone country pseudo-intelligentsia — they would like to regain power. But they won't.

Your "model" hasn't held up.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #151

"Should have an impact" as in "the model predicts an impact". And first came the smog, then acid rains, then ozone depletion. These are material facts. The model works.
Let's jump to the chase:
Read this, please.

(If you can understand this, I'll link to more "academic" papers… "Wicked Problems" are -mostly- important, ya know?
Do you care?)

So, I scanned the paper for the word "model". Some quotes:


The Kyoto Protocol was doomed from the beginning because it was modelled on plausible but inappropriate precedents.

[...]

iii) Misguided Models

[...]

The model for most of the post-war period was the Yalta and Potsdam summits, which shaped the post-World-War II world.

[...]

The classic model of summitry therefore developed with concentric circles of experts who supplied the decision-makers at the centre with the formulae and positions to negotiate.

Long story short, we are not talking about the same thing, dude. But this was already known. Try again. Give something new.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #152
You and Google are on the same page: Un-intelligent search yields little of use -except accidentally- and intelligent search requires a knowledgeable and focused mind…
Google has a business model that makes it a lot of money. You have a fossilized viewpoint that makes you more and more alienated, both from those who'd teach you or learn from you and the advances made in the various sciences (including logic!).

Try reading this… (Not "searching for key-words or "gotcha quotes" — just to see what other intelligent people have discerned. It's not that long, and it's -at least- grammatically written… You can't spare a half-hour?) Then -if you'd like- we can get to the "science"…
(Although I can't imagine you being interested in such. :) )
—————————————————————————————————————
Yeah, I know it's the same paper -an essay, actually- linked to previously. But you are maddeningly Pavlovian in your reactions — I'll keep ringing the bell as long as it takes! :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #153
We already established within two weeks that we are not talking about the same thing. I already noticed that the paper you are linking talks only about politics, not the science. We have already found out that you have absolutely nothing on the science of climatology, your claims to the contrary notwithstanding.

Anything else? Any plans to address the actual topic at hand, i.e. the science, not the politics?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #154
I already noticed that the paper you are linking talks only about politics, not the science.
Not quite: That paper accepts the "science" you do (…I presume? :) You never seem to commit yourself to a position — and yet you won't say you're undecided…). Before I get into matters of strictly scientific interest I'd like to know where we stand on policy issues and efficient strategies…
But I won't likely get my wish! :)

So: Shall we start here? (Or would you like to go as far back as MBH98?)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #155

I already noticed that the paper you are linking talks only about politics, not the science.
Not quite: That paper accepts the "science" you do (…I presume? :) You never seem to commit yourself to a position — and yet you won't say you're undecided…). Before I get into matters of strictly scientific interest I'd like to know where we stand on policy issues and efficient strategies…
But I won't likely get my wish! :)

I noticed the paper mentions science only in passing, and insofar as it mentions it, it is not on your side, from which I determined that your point with the paper is only politics. And politics is the wish I will not grant you.


So: Shall we start here? (Or would you like to go as far back as MBH98?)

Sound criticism and I agree with it, even though it's a conveniently low blow that offers no alternative or correction. Everybody knows (or should know, at least since Edward Lorenz) that linear models don't (and can't) work in climatology. I have precisely the same criticism against conventional economics, so I completely agree with this criticism. However, notice the following.

- The point of the article is, "So, why are so much resources being invested in climate models? A very provocative paper by Shackley et al. addresses this question..." i.e. the point is political, not scientific.
- We (you and I) mean different things when we say "models" in climatology. When I say it, I mean e.g. greenhouse effect. When you say it, you mean trivial linear projections, as in the article. For self-evident reasons, such projections are necessarily as flawed in climatology as they are in economics.
- Models defined your way are not the basis of "global warming" concerns. Greenhouse effect is. The article does nothing to challenge this. IPCC reports are not reducible to predictions of rising mean temperature.
- Even assuming that the criticism is completely justified (which it isn't), it doesn't mean that sound climatology, including concerning "global warming", doesn't exist. It only means that most scientists have difficult time wrapping their minds around non-linear models. This is even more true in economics and with consistently far more catastrophic consequences. This doesn't mean that sound economists, comfortable with non-linear models and capable of predicting events like the 2008 global financial crisis, don't exist. They do.

By the way, where is your story of photons?
   

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #156
Models defined your way are not the basis of "global warming" concerns. Greenhouse effect is.
Your view of the "science" of the greenhouse effect is religious or ideological… I admit that politics has greatly skewed climate science, and hence must often be taken into account. That doesn't mean that it's only politics:
Peruse this page (I recommend the third paper dealt with…). You have your dogma and the rites that have grown up around it! But I'm more concerned with the effects of the greenhouse gasses upon the climate.
And upon the policy prescriptions that, misunderstanding those, are advocated by true believer "environmentalists".

As someone once said, make things as simple as possible; but not simpler! :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #157

As someone once said, make things as simple as possible; but not simpler! :)

The article you gave was too simple though. Time for your story of photons. Long overdue.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #158
Time for your story of photons. Long overdue.

Yes. We want photons! We want photons! We want photons! We want photons!

Sorry, I'm inspired by the Greeks.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #159

Time for your story of photons. Long overdue.

Yes. We want photons! We want photons! We want photons! We want photons!

Sorry, I'm inspired by the Greeks.


Are you sure? Well-- OK. Have a free sample.

What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #160
The article you gave was too simple though.
Oh? In what way was it too simple?
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #161

The article you gave was too simple though.
Oh? In what way was it too simple?

Low blow at linear models, while providing no suggestion to improve the field of study. Concentrating on the projections of the "rising mean temperature" while avoiding the main topic, i.e. environmental concerns, that which forms the bulk of IPCC reports.

Btw, where is your story of photons?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #162
Low blow at linear models, while providing no suggestion to improve the field of study. Concentrating on the projections of the "rising mean temperature" while avoiding the main topic, i.e. environmental concerns, that which forms the bulk of IPCC reports.
Which paper did you read, ersi?

Quite some while ago, in another thread, I asked you a simple question: Does a photon have free will? (You didn't answer… I'd only wanted to see how much of an animist you were.)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #163

Quite some while ago, in another thread, I asked you a simple question: Does a photon have free will? (You didn't answer… I'd only wanted to see how much of an animist you were.)

I did. Now it's your turn. Write your story of photons and I will help you find the answer that I gave back then.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #164
It doesn't matter to me… Likewise, your petty rhetorical points.

I ask you again: Which paper did you read? (The one I recommended was a PHD dissertation…) The main point of which I took to be that the effects of the so-called greenhouse effect are, well, dependent upon many other factors — sometimes even resulting in a "negative greenhouse effect". And important, at that.
So, calculations predicated upon a doubling of atmospheric CO2 based upon laboratory experiments (…and computer models, i.e. current GCMs) using elementary physical properties are -at least- suspect.
Not for the cargo-cult set, of course. But as for myself -as someone who cares about science, among other things- I'd need something like, you know?, actual science? :)

What -ignoring my qualms about consensus science- would you want to see, to combat carbon pollution?
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #165

It doesn't matter to me… Likewise, your petty rhetorical points.

Which is a petty rhetorical point that doesn't matter to me.


I ask you again: Which paper did you read?

My knowledge of greenhouse effect comes from ordinary primary school education. Later, I have followed up the debates on the news and noticed the essential similarity of the substance of climatology with economics. I know economics better.

So, I know the math of climatology, but I don't know much about the specific concepts. For example "cP air" and "mP air" in your latest recommendation were news. 

As to the phenomenon itself, it was taught in primary school as common sense and I have seen nobody question it later. This is scientific consensus.


(The one I recommended was a PHD dissertation…)

Mkay. Giving it a read.


The main point of which I took to be that the effects of the so-called greenhouse effect are, well, dependent upon many other factors — sometimes even resulting in a "negative greenhouse effect". And important, at that.

No, this is not the main point of the paper. Its main point is "...to provide an interpretation of the mechanisms involved in the formation of cP air, rather than to simulate the the observed characteristics of a particular case study. [...] Although the model results compare well with the observations of Gotaas and Benson, comparisons with other observations are needed to validate the model."

The "interpretation" mentioned in the previous quote consists in this, "The principal effect of subsidence on the temperature profiles is not caused by warming due to adiabatic compression, but by its effect on the moisture supply, thus influencing the radiative cooling."

How does any of this make greenhouse effect "so-called" or even "negative", I have no idea. What do you take greenhouse effect to be? Either give your brief description/definition of the greenhouse effect now or this discussion is suspended.*


What -ignoring my qualms about consensus science- would you want to see, to combat carbon pollution?

I.e. what would my politics be? You can keep dreaming.

* Better still, tell your tale of photons in the appropriate thread.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #166
I think that someone here believes that human activity is influencing our climate and that someone else here believes that human activity is not influencing our climate, but I am not sure.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #167
This discussion is absurd.

Firstly, opposition to human activity driven changes to climate is exclusive to an insignificant small number of individuals desperately trying to receive some compensation from oil and other forms of highly pollutant industries and very much restricted, if not exclusive, to the US.

Secondly, even analyzing the issue under an absurd approach and admitting they were right, even so, the general principle of precaution, due to the unsurmountable consequences of such disaster, would advice for prudence and reducing the human caused impact in the earth's climate balance, never to adopt behaviors that will inevitably rise such interference.

Thirdly, because sticking to limited and finite forms of fuels instead adopting and substituting for limitless ways of using energy without ecological footprint it's a crime against humanity and represents giving future generations no future.

And the last but not the least, because we should have a deep respect for all forms of live beings of the Creation and allow them for the needed habitat so they can prosper, not to exterminate species at the diabolic rhythm human race has been doing it.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #168

I think that someone here believes that human activity is influencing our climate and that someone else here believes that human activity is not influencing our climate, but I am not sure.

:jester: I believe in both, but I'm not sure, either.  :jester:
==========
And the last but not the least, because we should have a deep respect for all forms of live beings of the Creation

Hmmmmm...Adam and Eve? The talking serpent? Why don't they talk anymore?

 

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #169
My knowledge of greenhouse effect comes from ordinary primary school education.
That explains a lot… :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #170
Firstly, opposition to human activity driven changes to climate is exclusive to an insignificant small number of individuals desperately trying to receive some compensation from oil and other forms of highly pollutant industries and very much restricted, if not exclusive, to the US.
(I assume you mean "opposition to the theory of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming" — but that's just the most likely sense… :) ) Then, you prefer your conspiracy theory —or, propaganda, if you will!— to actual science. Your welcome to it.
Secondly, even analyzing the issue under an absurd approach and admitting they were right, even so, the general principle of precaution, due to the unsurmountable consequences of such disaster, would advice for prudence and reducing the human caused impact in the earth's climate balance, never to adopt behaviors that will inevitably rise such interference.
By that maxim, you'd have to hop over every crack in the sidewalk — to spare your mother's back… :)
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)


Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #172
By that maxim, you'd have to hop over every crack in the sidewalk — to spare your mother's back…  :)

The truth can be heard from the children's mouth - you finally said the truth, that for you the consequences of climate change are no different from cracks on the sidewalk that ruins your nice Italian imported shoes. American egocentrism above everything else no matter if it destroys the world.

Selfishness, immaturity and lack of responsibility, the way of the "Braves". :)
No need to keep on discussing this.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #173

This discussion is absurd.


Agreed-- but maybe not for the reason you think.

Quote from: Belfrager

Firstly, opposition to human activity driven changes to climate is exclusive to an insignificant small number of individuals desperately trying to receive some compensation from oil and other forms of highly pollutant industries and very much restricted, if not exclusive, to the US.


OK. I can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt--- let alone a reasonable one--- that the above statement is in error.

Where's my compensation from the oil and coal companies? Come on--- it's been several years, there's a lot of back-pay involved--- where is it? I've come out against CAGW for years now, so--- if what you say is true, I should be a wealthy man. As it is, if I tried to get a car loan the bank would point at my credit rating and laugh.

I also have doubts that reasonable doubt about CAGW is restricted in any way to the US-- but that's another issue.
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #174

Where's my compensation from the oil and coal companies? Come on--- it's been several years, there's a lot of back-pay involved--- where is it? I've come out against CAGW for years now, so--- if what you say is true, I should be a wealthy man. As it is, if I tried to get a car loan the bank would point at my credit rating and laugh.

Based on your anti-CAGW performance on this site, you have no reason to expect any slice of the cake, not even a cookie. Shape up!

Different from Oakdale, who may actually have a point about politics that I may agree with. Which is why I don't discuss the politics with him. It's much comfier to bash the politics of the science of economics, and stick to the actual science of climatology. Weather forecasts miss the mark often enough, but I am yet to see any conspiracy theories about it.