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Messages - ersi

1
DnD Central / Re: The Awesomesauce of Globalism
White House has warned Kyiv that continued [Ukrainian] strikes on [Russian] oil and gas infrastructure could harm Joe Biden’s re-election chances
So it's not just Trump promising to end the war in Ukraine by giving up Ukraine. It's also Biden giving up Ukraine because it would improve Biden's domestic situation.



There's this guy called Peter Zeihan whose thesis is that USA has given up on its world police role, turned inward to isolationism, and the rest of the world is on its own now, resulting in, among others, regional bullies extorting their neighbours. I have resented his thesis partly, because to me it seems that USA has always policed the world selectively and suppressed regional bullies selectively, occasionally switching sides. Instead of world police enforcing common rules, USA has been operating as the supreme colonial power to whom other (arguably ex-)colonial powers look up to as a primus inter pares.

So the post-Soviet-collapse World Order, in the Western mentality, has been:
1. USA, the supreme global colonial power
2. Currently lesser (ex-)colonial powers, mainly Old/Western Europe
3. (Re-)Emerging powers, such as India, China or Russia, which are termed "regional bullies" if antagonistic to the above-named elements
4. Smaller countries

The thing to note here is that smaller countries always ever were the last consideration under the Order (as they also are under any disorder). Smaller countries only received constructive attention as long as the (re-)emerging powers were not considered antagonistic to the primary powers of the Order. That is, #4 received the benefits of the Order as long as #1 and #2 thought that #3 were nice enough to have good relations with. In terms of trade and supply lines, the benefits of the Order to #4 may, geography permitting, have flown directly from #1 and #2, but the political will enabling this only flowed through #3.

Now Russia is considered a regional bully, and this disrupts the flow of political will of providing benefits of the Order to all smaller countries neighbouring Russia. That is, the flow of political will from #1 and #2 towards #4, which necessarily goes through #3 according to my thesis, is disrupted insofar as Russia's neighbours are concerned. Such affected neighbours are not only Georgia or Ukraine, which do not belong to EU or Nato, but also the Baltic countries, which belong to EU and Nato. That is, it affects all Russia's neighbours regardless of affiliation with global organisations. The same way as the Baltic countries received the benefits of the Order during peacetime because the Western Europe and USA had high hopes regarding Russia, they are now denied the benefits because Western Europe and USA no longer entertain high hopes regarding Russia.

In other words, global/regional political organisations, which should institute and embody values (in this case the Western or alleged democratic values) and distribute the economic benefits, do not matter. The Order does not work according to the values. It works according to the relations laid out above plus geographic proximity.

Under this paradigm, the current support for Ukraine did not and is not demonstrating anything about Western values for democracy or whatever. Remember that the support first emerged in the Baltic countries and Poland, i.e. countries neighbouring Ukraine and Russia. The support emerged due to "survivalism" or "alarmism" in Russia's shadow, something that the Old/Western Europe resents and wants nothing to do with. The support spread from the East to the West because lack of support for Ukraine would have exposed Western lack of values. But now it's clear that they do not care to be exposed. The West are global #1 and #2 after all and a bit of reputational damage would not change it.

The formula is that Russia looks so bad right now that the West can afford to look a bit bad too. So the World Order aligns itself according to the worst common denominator.

This century, nothing has gone well for USA in terms of foreign policy. The "War on Terror" promising to export democracy to Afghanistan and Iraq failed to export anything constructive at all. Expansion of Nato antagonised Putin, so there are ever louder voices calling for the abolishment of Nato. And when USA's global policing does not go well, USA turns inward. All foreign policy is converted to domestic talking points in hyperpartisan bickering, and if it does not convert, then it does not exist. Currently there is no foreign policy at all in USA, and this makes Zeihan's thesis look right.

Sad to concede it to Zeihan, but with some modifications he is right. Because I know I am.

Corollaries: The West has once again betrayed Ukraine. Ukraine, territorially the largest country in Europe and population-wise among the largest, is ranked #4 according to the paradigm, due to its proximity to Russia which is #3. Under tolerable relations with Russia, both were considered candidates to the Western "system of values", but now under inflamed relations with Russia, the West is making territorial concessions to Putin, resulting in radically diminished country of Ukraine, so that Ukraine becomes more easily treated as #4.

Everybody else in rank #4 must take note: Values, such as territorial integrity or who is guilty of starting the war, do not matter. The thing that matters is your rank.
2
DnD Central / Re: Wealth Redistribution -- What, if any, is the justification for it?
The wealthiest man in the world receives an award for being the wealthiest man in the world.

Emmanuel Macron a remis mercredi 13 mars au soir la grand-croix de la Légion d’honneur au PDG du géant français du luxe LVMH, Bernard Arnault. [...] Aux manettes du leader mondial du luxe, M. Arnault est aujourd’hui l’homme le plus riche du monde, avec un patrimoine estimé à 230 milliards de dollars, devant Elon Musk et ses 210 milliards de dollars, selon le classement Forbes. Bernard Arnault qui est entré dernièrement en négociations exclusives avec le groupe Lagardère, passé en novembre 2023 dans le giron de Vincent Bolloré, pour racheter l’hebdomadaire Paris Match.
3
DnD Central / Re: What's Your Favorite U.S. Supreme Court decision?
This one, restoring Trump to presidential candidacy in Colorado, may yet take the cake for being the worst SCOTUS decision ever. It's all the more tragic because it was formally unanimous. [1] And some comments were unwarranted, such as the one saying that the court is turning "the national temperature down" on a politically charged issue. How do you turn the temperature down by enabling an insurrectionist?

The ruling is flatly wrong. The constitution, Amendment 14 Section 3, says that insurrectionists do not belong to state office. This is how straightforward it is. How was it possible to mess this up? The court focused on Section 5 which says, in full, "The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article." From this the court decided that the states cannot apply the sections of the amendment on their own. However, in reality the states have much liberty and variety in applying for example Section 1, the citizenship and civil rights section.

Moreover, we are talking about a candidate of the presidential elections. Had SCOTUS members read the constitution about presidential elections, instead of relying on stupid political propaganda, they'd know that such a thing as a candidate of presidential elections is not prescribed to the states by the constitution. Entire USA is widely brainwashed into thinking that the voting population choose the president. This is false. According to the constitution, the states appoint electors and the only requirement for the presidential candidates, insofar as the electors are concerned, is that at least one of them is not from the same state as the electors are. So, essentially, Colorado was in full liberty to remove Trump from candidacy, have a list of candidates as they themselves please, and instruct their electors as they please. If constitution matters, that is. To SCOTUS something else matters.

Now, what did Colorado do when this ruling was handed down to them by SCOTUS? Did they whine like liberals that their rights and liberties are being trampled on? That it is a witch hunt and persecution? No. They put Trump back on the ballot and bowed themselves to the SCOTUS idiocy in the name of formally upholding the rule of law. This is squarely contrasting to Trump's behaviour, who in every indictment against him whines like a liberal that his rights and liberties are being trampled on, that it is a witch hunt and persecution, while himself being an insurrectionist who cares nothing about the rule of law.

Also, SCOTUS deployed some technicalities in taking Trump's absolute immunity argument for consideration in order to delay the documents investigation case. Thus SCOTUS aims to ensure that Trump not only remains on the ballot as an insurrectionist, but also as the thief and distributor of state secrets, an asset of foreign powers.

SCOTUS evidently has decided that USA is ripe for doom and Trump is up for the job. However, according to reasonable projections, Biden will win, if he survives until inauguration. But I'd say that even when Trump loses, it is a very bad mark on USA that the country's highest justices stepped in to prevent justice from happening.
In reality, the assenting comments sounded occasionally close to dissent. There is evidence of actual dissent according to those who have examined the metadata of the document.
4
DnD Central / Re: Maps-Maps-Maps! ?
In my experience, the map is quite accurately indicative of several cultural differences. First, when you are a guest for at least half an hour, you invariably get tea/coffee/juice/water suggested  everywhere outside the red area. In dark blue areas, this invariably includes wholesome snacks like sandwiches. In red area, a similar suggestion may (or may not) come up when you are a guest for half a day or so.

"Suggested" is different from "shoved in your face" but it is true that there are cultures where you cannot always refuse. For example when offered vodka in Russia, there is hardly a way out.

Also, in blue areas it seems to me that there is hospitality and liberal sharing when the guest brings nothing of his own. In red areas it is expected, e.g. when there is a party, everyone bring own drinks. In other areas it is more common that the host offers everything—the guest may suggest his own inputs, and depending on the culture/situation these suggestions are either happily accepted or politely declined.

(Edit: In some places in the dark blue area where I have been, it is expected that the guest suggest his own input and enter into an argument about it for a minute or so. It is not about the guest's input, but the guest making the suggestion and going through an argument about it. It is considered impolite to fail to make the suggestion and impolite to drop the argument too quickly. Tricky one, I know.)

And finally, nobody except the red area people are puzzled about what the "context" of this kind of map might be.
9
DnD Central / Re: What's going on in Scandinavia, North Atlantic, Baltic States and Scotland?
Putin wants Estonia's PM. I wonder how much he is willing to pay for her. Prigozhin was valued by various US services from $100,000 up to $8m. But there's no Prigozhin anymore available for bounty hunters. What's KGB's preiskurant?

Another question is that maybe Putin feels like not paying out anything out to the bounty hunter who delivers. Or maybe he will pay AND send the bounty hunter to the Ukraine front.
10
DnD Central / Re: Everything Trump…
Of course, another fundamental issue is that "pay bills" is not how Nato membership works. The fact that Trump thinks that USA functions in Nato like the mafia don who collects tribute is yet another disqualification of his. Naturally, he cannot think any other way, because mafia don is his mode of operation, for which he should have been locked up in late 80's already, or in late 00's at the latest.

Instead Trump was rewarded with the presidency and this only made him think of himself as an untouchable mafia don. Probably the elites reasoned along the lines, "We are all corrupt, so let's have the most brazenly corruptest of us have the most visible post, so the rest of us will look less corrupt." Hopefully they have realised their mistake now and want to take the country out of the third world dump failed state status. I still entertain some hope that Trump will be taken off the ballot as justice and law and order and due process required a long time ago.
11
DnD Central / Re: Everything Trump…
Trump Encourages Putin to Attack NATO Members

[Trump said in a campaign speech:] One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, “Well, sir, if we don't pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” I said, “You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent?” He said, “Yes, let’s say that happened.” “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.”
Of course, this is not about paying bills. It's about defuncting Nato altogether.

Those who don't pay bills are far away from Russia, so Russia is no threat to them. Russia is a threat to those Nato members who always paid the bills. What Trump is actually saying here is that Putin is free to attack without any repercussions. All incursions by Putin have been net positives anyway for Putin, but Trump promises better than that.

I did not notice Putin mentioning Trump in his exchange with Tucker, but apparently Trump got this message out of it.
12
DnD Central / Re: Putin the Magnificent: Series 2 - Putin's Russia
The contents of the Tucker-Putin exchange properly belong to this thread.

In contrast to Tucker, who was completely unprepared for Putin, Putin was somewhat prepared for Tucker. In the beginning of the so-called interview, Putin asks if Tucker's "basic education" is in history. That's a yes. And then Putin goes into his "30 seconds or a minute" tirade into history for over 20 minutes. The tirade includes a gift to Tucker from Putin.

The gift is Khmelnitsky's letter and treaty with the Muscovite czar. Why exactly this gift? According to Muscovite interpretation of history, this was the point in history when Ukraine (in the person of its first liberator and unifier Khmelnitsky) signed itself off to Muscovy. Putin does not say it, but he means it: Ukraine belongs to Russia because of those historical artifacts between Khmelnitsky and the czar. This is also how this historical event was taught in Soviet schools. It was called reunification of Russia.

In actual history, there was a bit more to it. Khmelnitsky was more familiar with dealing with the Poles, and when he signed treaties with the Poles, these were equal treaties and both sides swore an oath to each other. Khmelnitsky expected the same from the czar. But the czar's envoys did not pronounce an oath after signing, so Khmelnitsky cursed them and said that the treaty was not valid. In practice, the treaty provided Muscovite protection to Ukraine and Ukraine's allegiance to Muscovy, until the next generation of czars began abolishing any autonomy from Cossacks and Cossacks rebelled, this time against Muscovy, not against Poland any longer.

Moreover, Khmelnitsky and the czar needed translators to communicate with each other. So they were not the same Russians as Putinite historiography would have everyone believe. The entity that Khmelnitsky established is called by most historians the Cossack Hetmanate, whereas Khmelnitsky called himself the autocrat of Rus and saw himself as a descendant of Kievan Rus. Russian czars of the time, on the other hand, called themselves the czars of "Great, Little, and White Russia", which roughly correspond to modern "Russian heartland", Ukraine and Belarus respectively, whereof the czars had no possession of Ukraine and Belarus, just a claim to them. This is why already political commentators of the the time saw Muscovy as full of hubris. But many modern commentators swallow Putinite historianism line, hook and sinker.

Tucker got very uncomfortable during Putin's historical discourse. Apparently Putin's intelligence-gathering had not found out that Tucker actually hates history. Tucker's takeaway from the historical discourse was that Putin's claim to Ukraine was historically motivated, and Tucker said repeatedly, "But why did you make this claim only two years ago? Why not earlier during your 20-year reign?" Thus Tucker demonstrated his complete lack of preparation. Of course Putin has made these historical claims for decades, for anyone who has been paying attention.

Those who have been paying attention, have been doing so differently. For example John Mearsheimer hears what Putin says and concludes, "Oh, Putin says that he wants Ukraine and Baltics etc. We should give him all that and a bit more, lest he starts a war and bombs us." EU biggies also heard what Putin was saying and replied, "Okay, let's build another pipeline so you can amass more castles and yachts. This should cool you down." And Russia's immediate neighbours have been watching in horror the growing threat from the East and the insane hypocrisy from the West closing in.

This is my take on just the first 25 minutes of the interview. It is so repulsive that I can listen to it only in small bits.
13
DnD Central / Re: What's Going On In Russia?
At first Tucker got rather high-profile guests to his interviews, such as Trump, Pence, Orbán, Robert F Kennedy and the retired colonel here, but more lately his guests are becoming laughable, such as the guy who claims to have dated Obama. Laughable and ridiculous guests are more appropriate to Tucker's own profile.
Putin strongly opposes Tucker Carlson fading into oblivion, so he invited Tucker over for an interview, due out today. It's not Putin being interviewed by Tucker. It's Tucker amplifying Putin's message to the MAGA-hats. Obviously there will be a message regarding Ukraine so obvious that I won't mention it here. Rather, I predict that Putin will issue a near-direct endorsement of Trump. Lifting Tucker's profile serves the same purpose.

Edit: The interview is out now. Tucker says right up front that he found it shocking that Putin's justification for the Ukraine war is a discourse in Russian mythical history. Whereas I find it somewhat surprising that Tucker claims to find this particular feature, which happens to be Putin's defining feature, shocking. After all, in his own mind Tucker went to interview Putin and one would assume that, as a self-proclaimed journalist, Tucker was prepared about his subject. Evidently not. All Tucker's pretensions to journalism are gone now, if anybody still entertained any. It was not Tucker interviewing Putin. It was Putin getting his message out to the world at large and to the MAGA-hats, and Tucker getting his profile upgraded from a basement conspiratorialist to a collaborationist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOCWBhuDdDo

I have not watched the whole interview, so I am not sure if my prediction about Putin endorsing Trump hit the mark. The Ukraine bit was so obvious that it does not qualify as a prediction.
15
The Lounge / Re: What music are you listening to right now?
At work we have online coffee break meetings with colleagues and we try to come up with ideas to keep suicidal thoughts away and anti-management sentiments moderate. One of my ideas for those meetings is geolocation of music videos. This one is ideal:
- Non-English song
- Totally different city
- The lyrics include place names that have nothing to do with the language or the video

Just to be extra sure, I have looked up the city in Google Streets/Earth and I know exactly what it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1-vi2lCQI


17
DnD Central / Re: What's Going on in Business?
Oh, so Musk is only #2 businessman in the world now? What a shakeup!

By the way, on a device where I have not found a way to block YT ads (namely my smart-tv) I just saw a Musk ad where he invited everyone to go to tesla2024.io to receive lots of money in Bitcoin and/or Ethereum. I haven't touched the address. Please report back, anyone who goes there :)

Existence of this kind of ads perfectly justifies total ad-blocking. All those social media companies go through some purging campaigns among the users of their platforms, but they cannot screen ads?
18
DnD Central / Re: What's Going on in Business?
In addition to bursting into flames, Tesla cars seem to have a tendency to plunge into fjords.
Two motorists whose car plunged into a freezing Oslo fjord escaped unharmed when a floating sauna came to their rescue, Norwegian police have said. [...] The owner of the car, who was not identified by name, said he had thought the car was in park mode when he hit the accelerator pedal.

Tesla is recalling everything.
Tesla is recalling about 2.2 million vehicles because the font on the warning lights panel was too small to comply with safety standards, U.S. regulators said on Friday. [...] The models affected include the 2012 to 2023 Model S, the 2016 to 2024 Model X, the 2017 to 2023 Model 3, 2019 to 2024 Model Y and 2024 Cybertruck vehicles.

Tesla's payout to Musk has been cancelled.
A judge in the US state of Delaware has annulled a $55.8bn (£44bn) pay deal awarded to Elon Musk in 2018 by the electric car company Tesla.

And Elon is the best businessman we have, as measured by net worth. Don't pretend there is any other measure.
19
DnD Central / Re: The State of Israel ~ vs ~ Hamas ---- A "Natural Right" to Self-Defence?
Travelingisrael hits back against Lonerbox.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5wVaNknEkY

He makes a compelling case about the nature of the attack on the first Arab village by Israel in 1948. However, Nakba is not just about the first village. It is about Israel's policy of expulsion of Arab population. There is no way to deny that that was (and is) the policy.

In 1947/8, borders were assigned for Israel. People either recognise those borders or not. Arabs did not. And also Israel immediately overstepped those borders in every direction, so de facto Israel does not recognise those borders either. Thus Israel by its own measure is no better than Arabs.

For Travelingisrael (and other Zionists) Israel's behaviour is no different from the way other nation states emerged after WWII at the dissolution of European empires. The sad thing is that European empires were colonial, and even after formal dissolution or reform still retain colonial behaviour and colonial instincts to this day. You can choose to do either the right thing or follow the example of Western colonial hypocrites. Looking at Israel's behaviour — Palestinian territories either blockaded or occupied and burdened with Jewish kibbutz-colonies; Golan Heights occupied and the southern portions of Lebanon and Syria under periodic terror attacks because of it; policy of expulsion of original population in constant swing since 1948 — Israel has consistently refrained from doing the right thing.
21
DnD Central / Re: The awesomesauce with Chimerica
Who is threatening? Is One China policy threatening? Both mainland China and Taiwan have the exact same rhetoric of One China policy, the only difference being whose regime should preside over the single China. (There are more small differences, such as Taiwan claiming more landmass to itself than the current mainland China holds, but that aside.)

Of course mainland China looks more menacing to Taiwan due to its manpower, but let's remember that it was Kissinger of USA who made the world recognise mainland China as the proper China so that Taiwan became a barely recognised country. Don't you think Taiwan felt threatened back then? Quite ironically, nobody thought of the cost-effectiveness of such a move. It's quite costly to have a recognised scary mainland China now.
22
DnD Central / Re: I'm bemused: No one here wants to discuss the Gaza-Israel war
The U.N. Court made a good decision. Finally, when Israelis are committing genocide, it is legal to say that they are committing genocide. And it's confirmed yet again that part of the rules of war is proportionality.

But the court did not rule Israel to stop.[1] When the other party is not a recognised country, then the perpetrators can argue more liberties for themselves, just like USA did in war against Afghanistan, explicitly refusing to abide by Geneva Conventions. 
To stop the war, that is. The court ruled Israel to abstain from genocide.
23
DnD Central / Re: The awesomesauce with Chimerica
I too (three?) can't see an invasion of Taiwan as anything but a loss for the CCP. Nor the military establishment raring to go fish either.

However threatening to invade could be cost-effective and threats must be taken seriously.
Cost-effectiveness does not matter at all whatsoever. Russia is trying to teach you this very hard, but you are not learning. In Ukraine war, Russians happily wallow in senseless pain and suffering. They think it makes them glorious and glory is what matters. You should already have seen how much they are willing to sacrifice for nearly nothing. The reality is that they are willing to sacrifice far more than we have seen, far more than the West can imagine.

How much are you willing to sacrifice for your home country? Obviously your mind went instantly into cost-effectiveness calculation mode, so the correct answer is: Nothing. As soon as you start calculating, it is not a sacrifice any longer. And you think everybody else is the same as you. Well, Russians are not, and I suspect the Chinese also are not like that. There is some diversity in the world, can you imagine?

The Chinese can afford to expend with about half a billion lives. But I think they won't. For the current regime, starting a war would be a totally new activity. They have not had a war since their civil war around WWII. They have not committed any external aggression for some 300 years or so. A war would be a completely new thing for them and this is probably the main reason why they think very carefully and are very cautious about it.

However, they have the manpower. And they keep getting indirect encouragement from the West, as Russia has been consistently rewarded for every incursion.

24
DnD Central / Re: Finding the best system of economy
‘No one should have more than €10m’: the author of Limitarianism on why the super-rich need to level down radically

Here’s a couple of good questions for an election year: while we may talk about minimum wages, why don’t we ever discuss maximum wages? And, while our politicians may argue about how little a family can survive on, why do they never address the other end of the inequality scale: just how much accumulated wealth might be too much?

The best move ever is of course to come up with a catchy name for your theory. In this case, it's Limitarianism.