Ukraine — the forgotten war
While it still shows up in the news sporadically, the war in Ukraine seems to have lost the public's attention. But some still pay heed...
TALLINN and WASHINGTON — Armed with a marker and a white board, Estonia’s chief of defense jotted out what looked like gibberish, but to his mind was a simple algorithm that held the future of his country in the balance — a “formula,” Gen. Martin Herem said, for “when Russia is coming.”
It looked something like this: -U + yˆG – W + EST(N)
Translated, that’s minus the time when fighting stops in Ukraine (U), plus the time Moscow needs to prepare to make a move (y) — Herem believes hardly any time at all — modified by Russia’s ultimate goal (G), minus the world’s attention and the opportunity for Russia to act (W), plus Estonia’s readiness (EST), multiplied by NATO’s collective readiness (N).
Herem acknowledged he’s not a mathematician by trade, but the real problem, as he sees it, is that each of those variables is, well, variable — all except one.
“There’s only one factor that we can change: our readiness,” he said in early May. “We can support Ukraine, but one day [Russia] is coming out.”
That tiny Estonia exists under the NATO security umbrella seems to give Herem little reassurance. And while he sounds more bluntly fatalistic than others, Herem — who retired on July 1 — is hardly alone in his dim view of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s designs on northeastern Europe.
The war in Ukraine can feel abstract for much of the world, but nations close to Russia’s border have been forced to reckon with its practical implications: Namely, what will Putin do with his reconstituted army and ramped up industrial capacity when the fighting to the south dies down, one way or the other?
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