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Topic: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine (Read 3620 times)

Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Now i note that the USA is moving troops to base in Germany and obviously using the situation in east Ukraine as a daft excuse. NATO (which should have shut down years ago) and the usual interfering of America nipping at the Russian Federation. NATO has been making noises even though Ukraine not in that lot.

When Crimea had a referendum about being independent of Ukraine we got rubbish from the West over that even though perfectly well run and the vast majority who were Russian voted out. In the east of Ukraine the two provinces are not happy in that country and the majority Russians so wanted out and I would remind that during WW2 much of Ukraine was Nazi and had troops on the Nazi side and there were Russian Ukrainians who suffered. When somewhere wants independence and supported by the US and it's servants the NATO lot that is "okay" and if not they are tough on you. Russia is no doubt supportive of the two provinces and just as okay to be such like the West and especially American control get away with things.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #1
When the UK collapses because of Blundering Boris Johnson’s idiocy, perhaps you might fly to Moscow and get down on bended knee and kiss Vlad’s boots and arse? Clearly you’d be happier in the ex-RSFSR than Glasgow. Any Brit who repeatedly for 14 years refers to his own country and the US as “The West” obviously would be thrilled to serve their master, Herr Putin.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #2
For a young man after years of education you are routinely idiotic or of cannot face a matter drift into stupidity.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #3
For a young man after years of education you are routinely idiotic or of cannot face a matter drift into stupidity.
No denial that Putin is your master and you his slave, so.....

I bet you secretly miss the last true empire, the USSR, don’t you?

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #4
That coming from a violent and terrible state country like yours? It is safer in Russia than murder mad America,
"Quit you like men:be strong"

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #5
Safer in Russia? Safer for whom?
Is it gibberish you want? :)

I'd think it safer to be on the moon,
where the breathing is hard and exhaling
a bane at best... No more caterwailing
'bout what must be called lunacy, and soon!

(Russia wants what it wants, and will have it...
There are no Great Powers now, no faction
'cept who would survive and by what action,
and of course inaction is likely... Shit,

man, canna see -so blinded jealousy
has made ya- what Putin intends for thee?)

But alas no one had the foresight to
bring even one teeny li'l' bomb along...
So for gaud and greed and guile he'd be wrong,
this Putin Russia Firster's aur-redux.


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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #6
That is head shaking coming from an America Oakdale! Wanting superiority the world has been an an in depth thing for generations. Creating battlefields, spying on countries, trying to destabilise where they will not give in to US Imperialism. Your country accuses Russia of interfering in your election but no proof - none. America is riddled with wide spread mob violence, regular mass killings but wants to be a world controller! You have bases all over the world and coming out with a label on Russia over the election nonsense. Where is the proof??!
"Quit you like men:be strong"

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #7
Silly me! I'd thought we were talking about Ukraine and Russia... (I brought up the moon because we've actually been there...)
But that's beside the point:
Quote
More dangerous at this time, Borrell [the European Union’s foreign policy chief] said, was the massing of Russian troops, including military field hospitals, and “all kinds of warfare.”

“It is the highest military deployment of the Russian army on the Ukrainian borders ever. It’s clear that it’s a matter of concern when you deploy a lot of troops,” Borrell said. “Well, a spark can jump here or there.”

Initially, Borrell told reporters that “there’s more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea,” and doubled down on the figure later before his services had to correct it in the transcript, saying the real figure was over 100,000.

Nevertheless, Borrell said that “the risk of further escalation — it’s evident.”

Borrell declined to say where he got the initial 150,000 Russian troop number from, but called it “my reference figure.” It was higher than the 110,000 estimate provided by Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran on Wednesday.

More than 14,000 people have died in seven years of fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine that erupted after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. The EU has steadfastly opposed the annexation but has been unable to do anything about it.
(AP story)
Looks to me like the EU sees more than the Howie does in an ongoing uncomfortable situation... (Putin-filia?:)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)


Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #9
I'd thought everyone "over there" was asleep. Or perhaps only enough to cause the rest to keep very quiet, lest they wake the sleepers... :)
We shall see.

Meanwhile my president Joe Biden presumably gave Vlad a stern talking to! But a video call doesn't really enhance the threat of not sharing one's ice cream cone...
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #10
Russia is losing influence over Ukraine. On the other hand the US and NATO are both unable and unwilling to militarily defend Ukraine (or Georgia or Moldova). The US technically could, probably, but Ukraine is very far down on the list.

On the other hand anything the Kremlin would do would increase the distance from Kyiv to Moscow. And the Ukraine is a much bigger bite than a canapé-sized Baltic state. A full-scale invasion wouldn't work well for the Kremlin in the long run.

That puts Kyiv in a rather difficult position.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #11
That puts everyone in the neighborhood in "a rather difficult position." But the the distance between Moscow and Kyiv is a meger political metaphor, compared to the physical...

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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #12
The two cities are not far away. Moscow is only 760 km/470 miles from Kyiv, but then again Södertälje is only 1270 km/790 miles from Kyiv.

We can draw an equilateral triangle Södertälje-Kyiv-Munich, as we can draw one Moscow-Kyiv-nearly Riga. As you can see the distance from here to Kyiv is same as from here to Brussels, and Kyiv is closer than most of the EU. Not that I, or the good people in Södertälje, are about to rescue Kyiv from that Eastern principality, mind you. 


Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #13
Moscow is only 760 km/470 miles from Kyiv, but then again Södertälje is only 1270 km/790 miles from Kyiv
Almost twice and more than three times the ancient "decline of civilization" increment... Interesting. Would you posit a center? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #14
It's only three weeks march away, assuming the Baltic Sea is frozen. And much closer on ships.

The Kremlin is unhappy among others that the Ukraine is buying weapons from Turkey. Bit like Washington is unhappy for Turkey buying weapons from Russia, and for that matter India doing the same. And then we had the Indo-Pacific kerfuffle between France, the US and Australia. 



Which pretty much harks back to Prince Vladimir, how the Rus looked to Istanbul and Eastern Orthodoxy. Map from 1000 AD:





A little more complicated...

That's a fair assessment, as in the map above. However like @Frenzie mentioned it gets more complicated yet with Cyprus and our Middle Sea, the 3C biggie, including the part you refer to as the Middle East. Turkey's interests don't align closely with the EU's, nor with Russia's.







Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #16
Could you clarify what's meant by "economic center of gravity"? I could agree with the longitude, but the latitude seems as though it would be further south, The 2025 position would be put it further north than most of the US and China, not to mention the major economic powers of Europe. But perhaps I'm misunderstanding it.
“What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter.”
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #17
Could you clarify what's meant by "economic center of gravity"?
It "involves weighting the approximate centre of landmass of a country by its GDP" according to https://www.globaldashboard.org/2012/06/29/the-worlds-economic-centre-of-gravity/

In other words, an interesting exercise, but cannot be particularly informative.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #18
Could you clarify what's meant by "economic center of gravity"? I could agree with the longitude, but the latitude seems as though it would be further south, The 2025 position would be put it further north than most of the US and China, not to mention the major economic powers of Europe. But perhaps I'm misunderstanding it.

The centre of gravity, or centroid, is in a sense the midpoint or balancing point. If you put a pin under the centre of gravity the object will not fall over.

That particular image doesn't work for the surface of a sphere, but the idea is the same. The surface doesn't have a centre, but a feature on it might, like landmass. So the geographical centre of Earth is south of the Black Sea, as mentioned above. This changes, but very slowly, over geological time scale.


We can look for other centres, for instance the global centre of population. It is somewhere in Central Asia, not calculated precisely, but reasonably close to Almaty, Kazakhstan. In other words shifted to the east, due to the higher population density in South and East Asia. As these populations are stable or falling, while the populations in particularly Africa is still growing, expect this centre to start moving in a south-western direction. Conversely Santiago, Chile is the capital furthest away from people, on average.



Finally we got the economic centre of gravity, above. This not based on population, but on economic activity. The shift towards Greenland has been due to the economic power of the West, in particular the US. As the world economy has gotten slightly more balanced, it is moving back towards the demographic centre of gravity. If African countries start to grow in wealth, as they are likely to, this will be a southwestward shift, but for the moment the economic growth in Asia will dominate.



So not only may the economic centre of gravity move closer to year 1, that centre and the centre of population might converge somewhat towards the geographical centre.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #19
Orban says: „Es ist leicht möglich, dass es dieser Krieg sein wird, der auf demonstrative Weise der westlichen Übermacht ein Ende bereitet.“

The stakes are as follows. The relations between the EU and Russia cannot stay the same, they must change, but Putin is so obstinate that the relations can only change if either Russia is defeated or the EU dissolves. It's an existential battle for both and the issue is whether the EU biggies recognise this or not.

Likely not. The biggies think that the EU is fairly safe, because see all this buffer zone between Germany and Russia. That is, the biggies do not consider the countries between Germany and Russia as EU members, as countries worth an existence even. Therefore, they also will never muster sufficient commitment to defeat Russia.

Insofar as the above is plausible, the eastern EU members consider the EU already de facto dissolved. So does Orban, and he is already thinking ahead from this. He is betting that Russia will win (or not lose, which is the same thing). Despite being a Nato member, Orban is begging for special treatment and mercy from Russia in the world after this war. Other eastern Nato members still hope that Nato can muster the commitment that the EU lacks. Orban has apparently discounted even Nato, factoring in Germany's and France's repeated vision to conjure up some sort of EU defence mechanism, inevitably doomed to fail. Other eastern EU members see no other defence for the EU than Nato and therefore do their best to ignore Germany's and France's scholzing, macroning and schrödering.

If the war ends in stalemate with the EU still lingering on, there will be no way whatsoever to restore the trust between the eastern and western EU members - because it is a pause in the war, not the end of the war. In a stalemate the EU may still be there, but it will be without substance from then on. With friends like this, who needs enemies.

Edit. From RIA, facts as per Orban:
1. The West cannot win the war militarily
2. The sanctions have not destabilised Russia
3. The sanctions are hurting Europe enormously
4. The world has not aligned with USA on the issue of Ukraine

Also from RIA, Orban went to Russia for Gorbachev's funeral but Putin evaded a direct meeting by embarking on a tour in Russia's Far East.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #20
Yearbook of Finnish Security and Intelligence service analyses the following four scenarios. (I'm quoting just the factor about the West's support.)

1. Prolongation of the war. The West has continued to support Ukraine, but this support has not been suffcient to resolve the war in Ukraine’s favour. As 2025 arrives, it is even more uncertain how support from the West will continue.

2. Ukraine prevails. The Ukrainian military success is due not only to its own fghting spirit and military prowess, but also to even stronger support from the West.

3. Russia occupies Ukraine. A fragmented West has been unable to provide enough support to Ukraine. The energy crisis and infation are among the factors that erode the desire to support Ukraine in the West. Russia redeploys armed forces to its borders with Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, with an increased risk of war between NATO and Russia. The occupation of Ukraine is a painful defeat for the West.

4. An uncertain peace. Western military support for Ukraine has begun to erode. The unity of European countries is breaking and a sense of war fatigue afficts the people.

So everybody can see where we are. And there's no question as to why.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #21
Boris Pistorius: Putins Ukraine-Feldzug ist »längst kein regionaler Krieg mehr« https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/boris-pistorius-putins-ukraine-feldzug-ist-laengst-kein-regionaler-krieg-mehr-a-f12ae2f1-877e-40e3-883d-3ce098a001e8

So, the leadership of Germany has been viewing the war in Ukraine as a "regional" war (meaning provincial, narrowly local). Germany never had (and never will have) a European sense of geopolitics. The EU borders are not their borders. Other EU member countries are not their partners. All countries between Germany and Russia, EU members or not, are a buffer zone that belongs to Russia, if Russia wants to take it, and if it even faintly promises better relations with Russia for Germany. In Germany's mind, only Germany+Russia matter. Everybody else can die off. If Russia wants Ukraine, Ukraine must submit, because Ukraine is a "region" whose existence or non-existence is irrelevant while Russia is a real country who has right to interests.

Ukraine is to pursue 'diplomatic' liberation of Crimea, Zelensky now understands. This means no liberation and it's not just Crimea. Since Trump is a catastrophe and the EU never was an ally, it is now easily foreseeable that the war has ended in defeat. Ukraine lost and Russia won.

Germans have Ostpolitik that they will never deviate from. Ostpolitik demands that Russia's boots must be licked, so that Russia gives Germany gas, and no province shall ever stand in the way, be it Baltics or Ukraine. All maneuvers undertaken by Russia (like the cutting of cables and pipelines brazenly ongoing in the Baltic Sea throughout this year) must be commended, and if something goes very badly for Russia due to their incompetence, like the nearly failed invasion of Ukraine, then the victim must be held down. Russia must always win. Crimea must belong to Russia, because Russia wants it, also Donbass, and after Putin has taken a few breaths and is able to continue with the rest of Ukraine, then it shall continue.

Angela Merkel led Germany for 16 years. She was in office during the financial crisis, the 2015 migrant crisis and, significantly, Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking to the BBC in Berlin, Mrs Merkel is robust in her defence of her time in office. She says she believes the war in Ukraine would have started sooner and would likely have been worse, if Kyiv had begun the path to Nato membership in 2008.

"We would have seen military conflict even earlier. It was completely clear to me that President Putin would not have stood idly by and watched Ukraine join Nato. "And back then, Ukraine as a country would certainly not have been as prepared as it was in February 2022."

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky disagrees. He describes Mrs Merkel’s Nato decision, backed by then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as a clear "miscalculation" that emboldened Russia.
I have heard that Merkel actually personally disliked Putin (and also Russia, based on her East-German experience), but when in office she dutifully embodied the interests of the Reich as conveyed to her by advisors. And this way her rule ended up a straightforward extension of Schröder's.

Merkel's memoir is out now. Will someone read it so I don't have to?
Selbstkritik übt die Autorin allenfalls, wenn es um schlecht vorbereitete Interviews oder das Rauchen geht.

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #22
One can't really choose one's neighbors, can one? (The most absurd example of a nation/region-wide HOA is NATO... And no one I know thinks it's a good idea.)  Will Europe admit that it fears Russia, to the point that they will go to war? Or will they even rely on the U.S. to do so? (Perhaps they think -still- that the U.S. taxpayers are willing to "protect" Europe — in perpetuity!? :)[1] Does Europe want to be protected?
From my perspective, Europe wants a free-ride; they hope Putin will die and Russia will become an "insular" half of a continent!
No wonder the European continent has been wracked with war for centuries! :)
Indeed, why should NATO members meet their treaty obligations?
Russia (formally the Soviet Union) routinely abrogated (or fudged) agreements... Surely, the U.S. taxpayer is willing to pay for other's safety?!
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #23
No one thinks it's a good idea to protect American interests?

 

Re: Nonsense from the West over Ukraine

Reply #24
No one thinks it's a good idea to protect American interests? I wonder at what point such an unpatriotic sentiment becomes treasonous.
In the USA that we have now, it is patriotic to assault the Capitol. Insurrectionists are patriotic. They genuinely think that the way to protect American interests is isolationism. They have no interests outside of themselves.

Everybody is getting everybody else wrong. East Europeans before the expansion of the EU believed in the promise of European diplomacy and solidarity. The reasons to believe it were that the EU branded itself as such, and that there had indeed been peaceful decades of reconstruction after the war, secured by signed treaties that seemed to hold. However, the treaties worked only because the Western European countries had a common colonial mindset (or post-colonial, while they mistakenly think they have gotten over colonialism and post-colonialism). Instead of colonising in competition with each other, they have agreed to colonise in unison. And they also recognise outside competitors that they cannot challenge, namely USA, Russia, and probably China. USA is unchallengeable because USA is a chief agent of post-war reconstruction. Russia should not be challenged because it's not economically wise to shut off one's own fuel station.

The fact that this mindset is straightforwardly colonial was revealed immediately upon expansion. For expansion, treaties were changed so that it changed the nature of the solidarity. The western members remained in full charge of decisions that concerned their own economic interests, while the role and autonomy of new members in the union was reduced. It might seem an obvious and necessary decision in the name of administrative efficiency, but it came at the cost of bulldozing over the new member states' *vital* interests, such as territorial integrity. In further interaction the new members have been treated as bargaining chips in a bigger game with outside competitors, overriding the very essence of what the union was supposed to be about. First hints of this were given upon the accession of Cyprus and Greece, next far more clearly when Baltic countries joined. Consequently, also competitors were able to pick the EU apart every now and then by playing the members of the union against each other, such as when Russia pushed for visa freedom (unsuccessfully) and for oil and gas routes bypassing Ukraine (successfully), and USA pushed for visa freedom re-defined, for GMO food, and who knows what else.

So much for solidarity. As for the famous EU diplomacy, it became clear that there is no such thing when the EU failed to do anything about the wars of dissolution of Jugoslavia. This was an enormous warning sign, because initially competitors had no stake in it and the events were very close to the border of the EU. Taking Jugoslavia as a test case, the lesson is that despite rhetoric the EU has no sense of its diplomatic mission, status and role. EU's diplomatic actions lack competence and sense of direction to the extent that this positively draws competitors in to overtake the situation. This ineptitude has been repeated with every new test case, such as with the accession of Baltic countries, who have been at hybrid war with Russia most definitely since 2007, and with the bankruptcy of Greece. Both events had important effects for the entire Europe, but were handled fundamentally wrongly by the EU, insofar as they were handled at all. Baltic-Russian hybrid war (fifth column/green men activity, propaganda warfare, data disruptions, and random ad-hoc tariffs) was treated from the economic perspective, pushing Baltics to sign border treaties with Russia with the eventual goal of giving de facto Schengen membership to Russia. At no point was it recognised that there was an actual war raging. At the same time the purely economic/financial event of Greece's bankruptcy was treated as if Greece had rebelled against the union, instead of that French and German banks had been engaged in irresponsible predatory lending with the approval of the governments of France and Germany and that Greece had been admitted into eurozone on unsound grounds. At no point was it recognised that there was a country bankruptcy going on. This may be called ostrich diplomacy, but this gives it too much credit. It is really shooting oneself in the foot with a machine gun so much so that the acute war in Ukraine has been addressed only insofar as USA, who really has no big interest in it, pushes the EU to address it. The EU lags behind in initiative on issues and in places where it should be the first in initiative.

So, eastern EU members got the wrong idea about the essence of the EU. According to propaganda, the EU is about solidarity and diplomacy to its members. Easterners swallowed the propaganda because they have an actual need of true solidarity and diplomacy. However, from the western perspective the veneer of solidarity and diplomacy — just the propaganda of it — is sufficient to whitewash their colonial past while they can continue behaving as usual according to their own interests — namely colonially.

USA is broadly in the western bunch, a colonial superpower, but on a different continent. A critical mass of Americans genuinely think that by sharply cutting ties with the messy and ungrateful Europe (and even with immediate neighbours, one of them being woke liberal and the other being illegal immigrant) they become untainted pure messianic Manifest Destiny republic-not-democracy exceptionalistic promised land of biblical milk and honey with the peculiar institution and God-given constitutional rights for me not for thee as the founding fathers literalistically formulated in the name of the Second Coming of Trump as Jesus.

By the way, here is how US Army got its relationship with their own presidents wrong recently
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEZ3JSOvY2s