The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Topic: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections (Read 23461 times)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #100 – 2024-06-02, 07:45:23

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-01, 21:40:45

what insight are you providing here? What is inflation according to you, doofus? Nah, never anything of substance from you, just factless partisan blather.

I'm doing other things as well as this simple correction of a simple Estonian's misconceptions, so I'll begin with the last point you made:

Inflation is caused by the over-supply of money. Government spending beyond tax receipts (as a proxy for GDP) requires borrowing by the government. That borrowing is "deficit spending" and the mortgaging of future tax receipts is the only way to manage it. Unfortunately, deflating the currency has some nasty consequences!
Inflation is a de facto deflation of the currency...
But if the growth of the economy can't keep pace, the "hole" gets deeper and deeper! (Remember the simple maxim: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!) Continued deficit spending sucks up more and more of the available capital, and less and less is available for growth or maintenance...
TANSTAAFL
Pauper-ation is the end result. (The Weimar Republic achieved it... Remember how it extricated itself?) I, for one, don't want to push to that choice. Does anyone else?

"Doofas," eh!

Just because I never succumbed to Soviet propaganda doesn't make me dumb. It makes me -mostly- lucky: I wasn't inundated. I feel sorry for you.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #101 – 2024-06-02, 08:38:55

Astonishing. You replied. What happened?

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-02, 07:45:23

Inflation is caused by the over-supply of money. Government spending beyond tax receipts (as a proxy for GDP) requires borrowing by the government. That borrowing is "deficit spending" and the mortgaging of future tax receipts is the only way to manage it. Unfortunately, deflating the currency has some nasty consequences!

I have heard of those theories. The problem with them is that they are just theories with no basis in reality. No basis whatsoever, zero validity. Anybody who holds to the theories you are citing is a miserable fool. You are having a big balls day, so I can upgrade you from doofus to miserable fool status.

First, over-supply of money does nothing when all of it is stashed away in holdings. This is easily seen by Obama's attempt to address the Great Recession. He pumped out trillions to keep the banks up in crisis and to encourage lending, which according to mainstream economic theory should in turn encourage general consumption, thus ending the recession. The banks used the windfall for CEO bonuses and other static hoarding, therefore the recession persisted. That was trillions printed that had no inflationary effect whatsoever for a decade.

Then covid hit, which changed the dynamic in economy. People stayed at home, with no way to go anywhere, nothing to do, and started spending online on little luxuries for nothing better to do. And only then inflation raised its head.

Conclusion: Only money in circulation, i.e. money mass in transactions, matters. Static money has no effect, no matter how much you print it, because it is, well, static — it is not participating in the economy. It starts having an effect when it starts participating in the economy.

You see, different from your theoretical nonsense, I have a practical sense of economics. I have the capacity to observe how economy works in practice. I have survived the hyperinflation at the collapse of Soviet Union. That hyperinflation did not happen because government printed money, but rather because politico-economic deregulation and introduction of private entrepreneurship brought about the explosion of black market and grey economy outside state control where alternative money was used (DEM, USD, and gold) indicating utter distrust for the official rouble, whose value thus collapsed.

Inflation is not government printing money. Inflation is reduced trust/valuation of a particular currency. It is called inflation because in every economic sector the increased price (=valuation in terms of currency) of a commodity is called inflation, so when there is an increase of prices across the board, which does not appear to be due a change of objective valuation of the commodities, but rather sinking value of the currency itself, then that is called inflation too. (It is nonsensical to call inflation "deflating the currency" as you do above. Keep your terms straight. Nah, I know it's too much for you.)

In addition to end-of-SU hyperinflation, I have also survived two monetary reforms in person. I know all about money. If you want to know anything about money or about broader economics, you ask me and listen carefully.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #102 – 2024-06-02, 10:39:15

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-02, 00:38:55

Astonishing. You replied. What happened?

Reply after reading the 1st sentence you posted...
I'm bored and a little drunk (it still happens, occasionally). And — although I hate to admit it, I'd like to "educate" at least one European!

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-02, 00:38:55

Obama's attempt to address the Great Recession. He pumped out trillions to keep the banks up in crisis and to encourage lending, which according to mainstream economic theory should in turn encourage general consumption, thus ending the recession.

When you say "Main-stream Economics" you must mean Keynesian... Keynes famously said, when asked what was the result of perpetual deficit spending by government, "In the long term, we are all dead." Indeed, that is so.
But are the profligate our best guides?
If you only care about yourself (and your cohorts), maybe. Still, that makes you a reprehensible person, in my view.

The "Great Recession" didn't end until the Trump administration's tax cuts enabled the economy's growth. (Reagan -and Kennedy- both understood this dynamic...).

—As an exercise in honesty I ask a simple question: What do you think caused the so-called Great Recession?

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-02, 00:38:55

First, over-supply of money does nothing when all of it is stashed away in holdings

It detracts from the economic growth! (Where, BTW, is this "stashing away" you refer to?) When the incentives for investing are paltry, less will be invested; when less is invested, there is less potential for growth.
You doubt that?

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-02, 00:38:55

I have survived the hyperinflation at the collapse of Soviet Union. That hyperinflation did not happen because government printed money, but rather because politico-economic deregulation and introduction of private entrepreneurship brought about the explosion of black market and grey economy outside state control where alternative money was used (DEM, USD, and gold) indicating utter distrust for the official rouble, whose value thus collapsed.

You missed (understanding) what actually happened: The U.S.S.R. tried to match the USA's expenditure for modernizing nuclear forces -specifically, SDI (so-called "Star Wars") which was to be an effective defense against a First-Strike... And, of course, a "defense" was -to the Soviets- an attack!
So, the U.S.S.R. spent more and more on keeping up with the U.S, technology — to the detriment of its obligations to its people.

Can you seriously claim that the U.S.S.R. ever had the welfare of its people an important consideration? (Ask the Ukrainians...)

BTW: The black and grey markets were always a boost to the Soviet economy...

Where'd the Soviet government get the money to — fail?

One more thing:
Is Nikita's "We will bury you!" taunt still one of your favorites!?

——————————————
I know it's going to cause your on-line persona some angst, but do you really think the election od Donald J. Trumpt is — a problem, for the world?

Try to be specific, if your immediate response is FUCK YES!.

———————————————
Oe more thing
Did MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) ever make sense to you?

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #103 – 2024-06-02, 16:04:49

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-02, 10:39:15

When you say "Main-stream Economics" you must mean Keynesian...

No. I mean mainstream economics as characterised by the so-called neoclassical synthesis, where the Keynesian element is actually pseudo-Keynesian.

Yes, I know it is all over your head.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-02, 10:39:15

The "Great Recession" didn't end until the Trump administration's tax cuts enabled the economy's growth. (Reagan -and Kennedy- both understood this dynamic...).

False. Data clearly does not matter to you.

Also, the topic clearly does not matter to you, but let's remind you: Inflation. Your theory is that government print money = inflation. And inflation = bad.

Yet, Obama printed money. Inflation did not happen. Trump made tax cuts for himself and now we have inflation again.

In reality, moderate stable inflation is necessary for economic growth (as it appears in GDP growth rate). The minus-inflation and zero-inflation economy that lasted throughout Obama years was not healthy (such economy has lasted for decades in Japan, resulting in a fall from second-largest economy of the world to behind Germany). And you deny the current economic growth because Biden is president.

Are you seeing the pattern? The pattern is that you are wrong about everything and your measure of all things is partisanship.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-02, 10:39:15

—As an exercise in honesty I ask a simple question: What do you think caused the so-called Great Recession?

As if you cared about honesty. What caused the Great Recession according to you? I know: Obama. Because he is Muslim and does not have a birth certificate or something. Be honest: You do not care that the Great Recession began under W with the subprime mortgage crisis.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-02, 10:39:15

You missed (understanding) what actually happened: The U.S.S.R. tried to match the USA's expenditure for modernizing nuclear forces -specifically, SDI (so-called "Star Wars") which was to be an effective defense against a First-Strike... And, of course, a "defense" was -to the Soviets- an attack!
So, the U.S.S.R. spent more and more on keeping up with the U.S, technology — to the detriment of its obligations to its people.

If this were true, then there would have been visible upscale in militarisation in USSR from 70's to 80's. In reality there was degradation. USSR did not have any muscle to keep itself together, much less muscle to keep together the Warsaw bloc, and much less posed it any threat to USA at any point. The "Star Wars" thing was fear of a bogeyman who was not there.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-02, 10:39:15

I know it's going to cause your on-line persona some angst, but do you really think the election od Donald J. Trumpt is — a problem, for the world?

You see no problem letting a state-secret leaking anti-constitutional narcissist dictator wannabe close to the nuke button? Silly me, of course you don't. Trump is Republican, so he is all-good.

I personally see no problem with any president of USA, provided that only USA were affected. Unfortunately there is more need for NATO now than ever. From this perspective, the right thing to do is to abolish the entire Republican party, or at least the Trump cult section of it. In normal countries, anti-constitutional insurrectionist parties get banned.

(You'd of course think that by recommending a ban on Republicans I hope for single-party rule of Democrats. No. In a normal country there are always more than two viable parties. USA is not a normal country. USA is a third world dump with delusions of grandeur.)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #104 – 2024-06-30, 08:44:51

Quote from: ersi on 2024-01-09, 13:11:30

(It's too soon, because several keys are undecided yet, but) Biden is the more likely winner, according to Alan Lichtman who has correctly predicted every presidential election result since 1984 https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/

Sticking to Lichtman's model, Biden will win. Full explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky5rQ83-jmA

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #105 – 2024-06-30, 09:10:13

(Dear ersi, I've pleaded with you repeatedly to update your understanding of logic...)

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-30, 00:44:51

Alan Lichtman got all election predictions right ever since he has been predicting.

Please follow your own link (https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/) to see... Or perhaps explain how 9 out of 10 is All?!

(I'll watch the YouTube vid you posted, later. Thanks in advance! (I've seen this fellow's podcasts before.)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #106 – 2024-06-30, 09:20:54

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-06-30, 09:10:13

Or perhaps explain how 9 out of 10 is All?!

Lichtman explains in the video how the Al Gore prediction was right. Namely, election theft.

You are a strong believer in election theft yourself, aren't you? You are fully in favour of storming the Capitol, jailing and executing the opponents (including enemies inside, such as one's own vice president) of the one true patriotic constitutional party in order to save the country and secure the Unified Reich.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #107 – 2024-06-30, 12:18:08

Have you gone off your meds, ersi?

(I'm not sure if there's a regimen for TDS — but if it becomes so debilitating, there should be a serious search for a mitigant, and then a cure and prophylactic .)

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-30, 01:20:54

Lichtman explains in the video how the Al Gore prediction was right. Namely, election theft.

Quote from: ersi on 2024-06-30, 01:20:54

Lichtman explains in the video how the Al Gore prediction was right. Namely, election theft.

So cool, I had to show it twice!

He was wrong because — he was right, and what the reality was: Was wrong!
(Perhaps his 2020 prediction should be viewed in the same light?

)
Your logic, ersi, is similar: The conclusion, if you don't like it, must be false!

I'll check out your and Licthman's claim of "theft" of an election...^[1]But most "seers" explain why their predictions fail... It never occurs to them that their omniscience is a sham supported only by happenstance and ego!

The Professor has some insight into American politics and how elections are decided on the national level. But he ain't Cassandra, or Anti-Cassandra! He's merely a social scientist — you know, like the fellows who wrote The Bell Curve, way back when.

¹I suspect the prof. hasn't and won't make the argument you do. But let me remind you, the election laws in the U.S preclude changing them during election season... I know that's hard for you to understand: For you, those who run the government are entitled to change the rules on a whim! Who are those plebes to complain?

↵

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #108 – 2024-08-10, 19:52:54

Pro Publica obtained Project 2025 "training videos" and mass-uploaded them on Youtube. I took a look at a few. They contained detached-from-reality idealistic nonsense babble, not grounded in anything. They often mention "principles" and "constitution" — just the words, without definition or specificity and hardly with any quoting, except the most abstract phrases.

It is hard to detect any plan or project in the videos. It is even hard to extract any takeaways, despite the videos being labelled "training videos". Anyway, the titles are:

- Advancing the President’s Agenda
- Executive Orders
- Presidential Transitions
- Coalition Building
- Social Media Messaging
- Federal Regulatory Process
- Oversight and Investigations
- Passing New Regulations
- Staffing an Office
- The Administrative State
- The Federal Workforce
- The Art of Professionalism
- Conserving America
- Federal Budget
- Navigating Policymaking
- Left-Wing Code Words and Language
- Working with the Media
- Background Checks and Security Clearances
- Conservative Movement History
- Appointee Survival Guide
- Time Management for Appointees
- Appointees and Policymaking
- Working With Congress

The vagueness of the content of the videos is in stark contrast to the Project 2025 text, where a clear plan can be discerned to undermine the federal state institutions, to disrupt elections and to demolish the separation of powers. The "training" seems to be addressed to the future partisan appointees of the administrative state who are to take over after expert professionals currently populating the federal agencies. Getting rid of expert professionals in federal positions is part of the Project 2025 plan.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/@ProPublica/videos

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #109 – 2024-11-03, 08:44:14

How to watch the US election like a pro

Subheadings:

Quote from: https://www.politico.eu/article/how-to-watch-the-us-election-like-a-pro/

How does the election work?

What are the swing states?

When will we know the result?

Will we get any clues?

What are the issues defining the campaign?

Could the polls be wrong?

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #110 – 2024-11-06, 05:15:00

Positives in case of Trump victory:
- Peaceful transition of power
- Billionaires and multi-millionaires will get rid of taxes (this time legally)

Anything else?

These are benefits for USA only. For the rest of the world there would be no benefits from Trump's victory.

- USA goes into Putin's pocket, practically out of NATO and into BRICS
- "Peace" in Ukraine by halving Ukraine and removing it from the equation as the world's breadbasket, causing inflation in Europe^[1]
- Imminent threat of war for all other countries immediately to the west of Russia
- Disruption of all treaties across the world, to be replaced with trade wars, hot disputes over "values" and militarisation

And we can conclude that the likes of Orban were ahead of the curve, with more acute geopolitical sense (and readiness to exploit the trend) than anybody else.

In case of Harris victory, most of these downsides for the world will not materialise, but neither will there be any benefits for USA. In case of Harris victory, USA will be more polarised than ever and Trump's brownshirts will actively riot until the judicial system gets its shit together, locks Trump up in jail where he belonged decades ago, and Repubs will reform from a personality cult and crazy mob of lynchers and bookburners to a political party.

¹Less of a worry to Western Europeans who always valued Russian gas more than Ukrainian grain. Western Europe would enthusiastically jump back on Russian gas and oil.↵

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #111 – 2024-11-06, 08:06:05

Well, folks: The Republicans took back the Senate and Trump won the Presidential Election in the Electoral College (and the popular vote

). In my state of California, Prop 36 (making retail theft and pushing drugs and such illegal again) passed; and LA's DA George Gascon lost his job...

I wonder how many Europeans live in something akin to ersi's fantasy world?

My advice is to reexamine your "knowledge" of Trump''s 1st term... And relax!

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #112 – 2024-11-06, 09:17:03

Macron rushed to congratulate Trump.

Trump's first term was disastrous for Nato and wonderful for Putin. Biden turned it around, but not for good. Trump's second term will be the end of all hope. Russia will be strengthened. USA will implode so as to become irrelevant for my corner of the world.

I sincerely hoped there would be someone to punish Russia's incursions, but now there will only be jubilations and adulations for Putin. In USA it is a taboo to call voters stupid, but at least Republican voters definitely are very much that beyond repair. Republicans of this century have dismantled Nato.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #113 – 2024-11-06, 09:45:24

Quote from: ersi on 2024-11-06, 01:17:03

Trump's first term was disastrous for Nato and wonderful for Putin.

Explication, please? Trump insisted that NATO members meet their obligations — you know, spending 2% of GDP on their military. (Estonia needed no prompting; Germany needed lots...) What happened to NATO that you consider bad, ersi?

Quote from: ersi on 2024-11-06, 01:17:03

I sincerely hoped there would be someone to punish Russia's incursions

Is it "daddy" issues or "big brother" issues you have, ersi?

^[1] Why is it America's job to deal with the messes that European countries have made of their part of the world? Especially when so many of you denigrate us?

Begars must be choosers, eh? Such a mature philosophy.

¹I'm glad you don't have nuclear weapons, ersi. You're not much different from the Mullahs in Tehran: You'd gladly destroy the world, if your ego gets stroked!↵

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #114 – 2024-11-06, 10:54:44

As you very well know by now, you are always wrong about everything. This being so, it should amaze you that Trump manages to be stupider than you.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-11-06, 09:45:24

Trump insisted that NATO members meet their obligations — you know, spending 2% of GDP on their military. (Estonia needed no prompting; Germany needed lots...)

False. In reality Trump insisted that other countries, by virtue of being Nato members, owe USA "a tremendous amount of money", and he invited Russia to invade "delinquent" Nato members who do not "pay their bills".

"Pay bills" is not how Nato works. Nobody in Nato owes USA a cent. Trump does not know this, but acts as if things must be according to his delusions, which has been very detrimental to Nato. More detrimental than W invoking Article 5 when there was no merit for it.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on 2024-11-06, 09:45:24

Quote from: ersi on 2024-11-06, 01:17:03
I sincerely hoped there would be someone to punish Russia's incursions
Is it "daddy" issues or "big brother" issues you have, ersi? Why is it America's job to deal with the messes that European countries have made of their part of the world? Especially when so many of you denigrate us?

The issue right now is Ukraine. It was USA's (wrong, stupid, bad and dangerous) decision to deprive Ukraine of nuclear weapons for the benefit of Russia. In return, USA (along with Russia) was supposed to "give assurances" for Ukraine's sovereignty. One part of the bargain is fulfilled: Putin got nukes. The other part has been neglected: Ukraine's sovereignty is not assured.

This particular matter is not quite European countries making a mess in their part of the world. It is European countries not knowing what to do when USA interferes and decides things half a globe away alone or in tandem with UK over the head of the continent. In all honesty, this Ukraine incident is exactly America's job to fix because America messed it up.

No need to thank me for correcting your delusions.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #115 – 2024-11-07, 10:43:28

So: You blame a feckless America for Ukraine's woes... Do you forget that the Crimea was annexed in 2014, during Obama's second term? And the current war did not start until Biden/Harris were firmly ensconced in office?
What happened between Russia and Ukraine during Trump's term? He sent Javelin Missiles to Ukraine — something Ukraine begged for and Obama reused them.
Yet you blame Trump for what Obama and Biden did? Why? TDS.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #116 – 2024-11-07, 10:50:17

The rules of the sale were that the javelin missiles were to remain in western Ukraine. That doesn't mean it's not without symbolic impact, mind you, but let's not exaggerate.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #117 – 2024-11-07, 15:38:06

You mean the Javelins to be sold against dirt on the Bidens? Please inform me some more. Oh Trump is so generous. Very generous. Almost as generous as when inviting Putin to invade Nato countries and promising to stay out of his way.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #118 – 2024-11-08, 09:21:42

I didn't care about Vance's surrender plan. Unless article 25 is applied Vance doesn't matter.

This may be the contour of Trump's surrender plan.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41884

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #119 – 2024-11-09, 03:02:44

Hope you read the whole article, including the caveats — including the fact that no sources were named!

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #120 – 2024-11-09, 07:11:48

Doofus Oakdale, what a big yawn you are.

Free advice from professional media analyst: You don't just read one whole article. You verify it against other sources, most importantly against primary sources, if available. Trump as a serial leaker and blabbermouth is an open book. Read that.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #121 – 2024-11-09, 11:09:30

And yet your TDS still dominates your supposedly "professional" analysis! To you, propaganda is the only legitimate form of media.
BTW: If you are a "professional," who pays you?

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #122 – 2024-11-09, 11:38:59

You don't know the meaning of the words you are using. In this case the words are "professional" and "propaganda".

Professionals get paid. This is the kind of professional I am.

Whereas you are full-time deranged for Trump without getting paid. Sad, very sad.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #123 – 2024-11-10, 03:17:37

Quote from: ersi on 2024-11-09, 11:38:59

Professionals get paid. This is the kind of professional I am.

Precisely my point! So, who pays you (to spew propaganda)?^[1]

¹Or are you constrained by an NDA?

↵

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #124 – 2024-11-10, 07:40:30

What is the propaganda that I spew in your opinion? With examples!

(Clearly you got that wrong, but let's see how deeply wrong you are. Probably bottomlessly wrong so there's no hope.)