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Topic: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections (Read 21936 times)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #100 –
Quote from: ersi on
what insight are you providing here? What is inflation according to you, doofus? Nah, never anything of substance from you, just factless partisan blather.
I'm doing other things as well as this simple correction of a simple Estonian's misconceptions, so I'll begin with the last point you made:

Inflation is caused by the over-supply of money. Government spending beyond tax receipts (as a proxy for GDP) requires borrowing by the government. That borrowing is "deficit spending" and the mortgaging of future tax receipts is the only way to manage it. Unfortunately, deflating the currency has some nasty consequences!
Inflation is a de facto deflation of the currency...
But if the growth of the economy can't keep pace, the "hole" gets deeper and deeper! (Remember the simple maxim: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!) Continued deficit spending sucks up more and more of the available capital, and less and less is available for growth or maintenance...
TANSTAAFL
Pauper-ation is the end result. (The Weimar Republic achieved it... Remember how it extricated itself?) I, for one, don't want to push to that choice. Does anyone else? :)

"Doofas," eh! :) Just because I never succumbed to Soviet propaganda doesn't make me dumb. It makes me -mostly- lucky: I wasn't inundated. I feel sorry for you.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #101 –
Astonishing. You replied. What happened?

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
Inflation is caused by the over-supply of money. Government spending beyond tax receipts (as a proxy for GDP) requires borrowing by the government. That borrowing is "deficit spending" and the mortgaging of future tax receipts is the only way to manage it. Unfortunately, deflating the currency has some nasty consequences!
I have heard of those theories. The problem with them is that they are just theories with no basis in reality. No basis whatsoever, zero validity. Anybody who holds to the theories you are citing is a miserable fool. You are having a big balls day, so I can upgrade you from doofus to miserable fool status.

First, over-supply of money does nothing when all of it is stashed away in holdings. This is easily seen by Obama's attempt to address the Great Recession. He pumped out trillions to keep the banks up in crisis and to encourage lending, which according to mainstream economic theory should in turn encourage general consumption, thus ending the recession. The banks used the windfall for CEO bonuses and other static hoarding, therefore the recession persisted. That was trillions printed that had no inflationary effect whatsoever for a decade.

Then covid hit, which changed the dynamic in economy. People stayed at home, with no way to go anywhere, nothing to do, and started spending online on little luxuries for nothing better to do. And only then inflation raised its head.

Conclusion: Only money in circulation, i.e. money mass in transactions, matters. Static money has no effect, no matter how much you print it, because it is, well, static — it is not participating in the economy. It starts having an effect when it starts participating in the economy.

You see, different from your theoretical nonsense, I have a practical sense of economics. I have the capacity to observe how economy works in practice. I have survived the hyperinflation at the collapse of Soviet Union. That hyperinflation did not happen because government printed money, but rather because politico-economic deregulation and introduction of private entrepreneurship brought about the explosion of black market and grey economy outside state control where alternative money was used (DEM, USD, and gold) indicating utter distrust for the official rouble, whose value thus collapsed.

Inflation is not government printing money. Inflation is reduced trust/valuation of a particular currency. It is called inflation because in every economic sector the increased price (=valuation in terms of currency) of a commodity is called inflation, so when there is an increase of prices across the board, which does not appear to be due a change of objective valuation of the commodities, but rather sinking value of the currency itself, then that is called inflation too. (It is nonsensical to call inflation "deflating the currency" as you do above. Keep your terms straight. Nah, I know it's too much for you.)

In addition to end-of-SU hyperinflation, I have also survived two monetary reforms in person. I know all about money. If you want to know anything about money or about broader economics, you ask me and listen carefully.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #102 –
Quote from: ersi on
Astonishing. You replied. What happened?
Reply after reading the 1st sentence you posted...
I'm bored and a little drunk (it still happens, occasionally). And — although I hate to admit it, I'd like to "educate" at least one European! :)


Quote from: ersi on
Obama's attempt to address the Great Recession. He pumped out trillions to keep the banks up in crisis and to encourage lending, which according to mainstream economic theory should in turn encourage general consumption, thus ending the recession.
When you say "Main-stream Economics" you must mean Keynesian... Keynes famously said, when asked what was the result of perpetual deficit spending by government, "In the long term, we are all dead." Indeed, that is so.
But are the profligate our best guides?
If you only care about yourself (and your cohorts), maybe. Still, that makes you a reprehensible person, in my view.

The "Great Recession" didn't end until the Trump administration's tax cuts enabled the economy's growth. (Reagan -and Kennedy- both understood this dynamic...).

—As an exercise in honesty I ask a simple question: What do you think caused the so-called Great Recession?


Quote from: ersi on
First, over-supply of money does nothing when all of it is stashed away in holdings
It detracts from the economic growth! (Where, BTW, is this "stashing away" you refer to?) When the incentives for investing are paltry, less will be invested; when less is invested, there is less potential for growth.
You doubt that?
Quote from: ersi on
I have survived the hyperinflation at the collapse of Soviet Union. That hyperinflation did not happen because government printed money, but rather because politico-economic deregulation and introduction of private entrepreneurship brought about the explosion of black market and grey economy outside state control where alternative money was used (DEM, USD, and gold) indicating utter distrust for the official rouble, whose value thus collapsed.
You missed (understanding) what actually happened: The U.S.S.R. tried to match the USA's expenditure for modernizing nuclear forces -specifically, SDI (so-called "Star Wars") which was to be an effective defense against a First-Strike... And, of course, a "defense" was -to the Soviets- an attack!
So, the U.S.S.R. spent more and more on keeping up with the U.S, technology — to the detriment of its obligations to its people.

Can you seriously claim that the U.S.S.R. ever had the welfare of its people an important consideration? (Ask the Ukrainians...)

BTW: The black and grey markets were always a boost to the Soviet economy... :) Where'd the Soviet government get the money to — fail? :)

One more thing:
Is Nikita's "We will bury you!" taunt still one of your favorites!? :)
——————————————
I know it's going to cause your on-line persona some angst, but do you really think the election od Donald J. Trumpt is — a problem, for the world?

Try to be specific, if your immediate response is FUCK YES!. :)
———————————————
Oe more thing
Did MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) ever make sense to you?
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #103 –
Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
When you say "Main-stream Economics" you must mean Keynesian...
No. I mean mainstream economics as characterised by the so-called neoclassical synthesis, where the Keynesian element is actually pseudo-Keynesian.

Yes, I know it is all over your head.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
The "Great Recession" didn't end until the Trump administration's tax cuts enabled the economy's growth. (Reagan -and Kennedy- both understood this dynamic...).
False. Data clearly does not matter to you.

Also, the topic clearly does not matter to you, but let's remind you: Inflation. Your theory is that government print money = inflation. And inflation = bad.

Yet, Obama printed money. Inflation did not happen. Trump made tax cuts for himself and now we have inflation again.

In reality, moderate stable inflation is necessary for economic growth (as it appears in GDP growth rate). The minus-inflation and zero-inflation economy that lasted throughout Obama years was not healthy (such economy has lasted for decades in Japan, resulting in a fall from second-largest economy of the world to behind Germany). And you deny the current economic growth because Biden is president.

Are you seeing the pattern? The pattern is that you are wrong about everything and your measure of all things is partisanship.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
—As an exercise in honesty I ask a simple question: What do you think caused the so-called Great Recession?
As if you cared about honesty. What caused the Great Recession according to you? I know: Obama. Because he is Muslim and does not have a birth certificate or something. Be honest: You do not care that the Great Recession began under W with the subprime mortgage crisis.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
You missed (understanding) what actually happened: The U.S.S.R. tried to match the USA's expenditure for modernizing nuclear forces -specifically, SDI (so-called "Star Wars") which was to be an effective defense against a First-Strike... And, of course, a "defense" was -to the Soviets- an attack!
So, the U.S.S.R. spent more and more on keeping up with the U.S, technology — to the detriment of its obligations to its people.
If this were true, then there would have been visible upscale in militarisation in USSR from 70's to 80's. In reality there was degradation. USSR did not have any muscle to keep itself together, much less muscle to keep together the Warsaw bloc, and much less posed it any threat to USA at any point. The "Star Wars" thing was fear of a bogeyman who was not there.

Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
I know it's going to cause your on-line persona some angst, but do you really think the election od Donald J. Trumpt is — a problem, for the world?
You see no problem letting a state-secret leaking anti-constitutional narcissist dictator wannabe close to the nuke button? Silly me, of course you don't. Trump is Republican, so he is all-good.

I personally see no problem with any president of USA, provided that only USA were affected. Unfortunately there is more need for NATO now than ever. From this perspective, the right thing to do is to abolish the entire Republican party, or at least the Trump cult section of it. In normal countries, anti-constitutional insurrectionist parties get banned.

(You'd of course think that by recommending a ban on Republicans I hope for single-party rule of Democrats. No. In a normal country there are always more than two viable parties. USA is not a normal country. USA is a third world dump with delusions of grandeur.)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #104 –
Quote from: ersi on
(It's too soon, because several keys are undecided yet, but) Biden is the more likely winner, according to Alan Lichtman who has correctly predicted every presidential election result since 1984 https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/
Sticking to Lichtman's model, Biden will win. Full explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky5rQ83-jmA

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #105 –
(Dear ersi, I've pleaded with you repeatedly to update your understanding of logic...)

Quote from: ersi on
Alan Lichtman got all election predictions right ever since he has been predicting.
Please follow your own link (https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/) to see... Or perhaps explain how 9 out of 10 is All?!

(I'll watch the YouTube vid you posted, later. Thanks in advance! (I've seen this fellow's podcasts before.)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #106 –
Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
Or perhaps explain how 9 out of 10 is All?!
Lichtman explains in the video how the Al Gore prediction was right. Namely, election theft.

You are a strong believer in election theft yourself, aren't you? You are fully in favour of storming the Capitol, jailing and executing the opponents (including enemies inside, such as one's own vice president) of the one true patriotic constitutional party in order to save the country and secure the Unified Reich.

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #107 –
Have you gone off your meds, ersi? :) (I'm not sure if there's a regimen for TDS — but if it becomes so debilitating, there should be a serious search for a mitigant, and then a cure and prophylactic .)
Quote from: ersi on
Lichtman explains in the video how the Al Gore prediction was right. Namely, election theft.

Quote from: ersi on
Lichtman explains in the video how the Al Gore prediction was right. Namely, election theft.

So cool, I had to show it twice! :) He was wrong because — he was right, and what the reality was: Was wrong!
(Perhaps his 2020 prediction should be viewed in the same light? :) )
Your logic, ersi, is similar: The conclusion, if you don't like it, must be false! :)
I'll check out your and Licthman's claim of "theft" of an election...[1]But most "seers" explain why their predictions fail... It never occurs to them that their omniscience is a sham supported only by happenstance and ego! :)

The Professor has some insight into American politics and how elections are decided on the national level. But he ain't Cassandra, or Anti-Cassandra! He's merely a social scientist — you know, like the fellows who wrote The  Bell Curve, way back when. :)
1 I suspect the prof. hasn't and won't make the argument you do. But let me remind you, the election laws in the U.S preclude changing  them during election season... I know that's hard for you to understand: For you, those who run the government are entitled to change the rules on a whim! Who are those plebes to complain? :) ↵
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections

Reply #108 –
Pro Publica obtained Project 2025 "training videos" and mass-uploaded them on Youtube. I took a look at a few. They contained detached-from-reality idealistic nonsense babble, not grounded in anything. They often mention "principles" and "constitution" — just the words, without definition or specificity and hardly with any quoting, except the most abstract phrases.

It is hard to detect any plan or project in the videos. It is even hard to extract any takeaways, despite the videos being labelled "training videos". Anyway, the titles are:

- Advancing the President’s Agenda
- Executive Orders
- Presidential Transitions
- Coalition Building
- Social Media Messaging
- Federal Regulatory Process
- Oversight and Investigations
- Passing New Regulations
- Staffing an Office
- The Administrative State
- The Federal Workforce
- The Art of Professionalism
- Conserving America
- Federal Budget
- Navigating Policymaking
- Left-Wing Code Words and Language
- Working with the Media
- Background Checks and Security Clearances
- Conservative Movement History
- Appointee Survival Guide
- Time Management for Appointees
- Appointees and Policymaking
- Working With Congress

The vagueness of the content of the videos is in stark contrast to the Project 2025 text, where a clear plan can be discerned to undermine the federal state institutions, to disrupt elections and to demolish the separation of powers. The "training" seems to be addressed to the future partisan appointees of the administrative state who are to take over after expert professionals currently populating the federal agencies. Getting rid of expert professionals in federal positions is part of the Project 2025 plan.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/@ProPublica/videos