Where debating everything under the sun is only the beginning

Bregrets? Why Britain has had few over Europe

Quote from: Financial Times

The most likely reason for the steadfast opinions, however, is that the referendum scrambled political identities. Ipsos Mori’s fascinating “Shifting Ground” survey shows how the UK’s political tribes have been reconfigured. Before the referendum, supporters of the Labour party sat on the left side of the economic axis, favouring tax and spend policies. The Conservatives were towards the right, advocating free market economics. On social issues, the Tory tribe flirted with authoritarianism while Labour voters floated towards liberalism. Crucially, there was substantial crossover on all these issues — in the political centre ground.

But Brexit has laid waste to that. The survey shows that the crossover between Leavers and Remainers is much smaller, and that these tribes are more starkly divided on social issues such as the death penalty and the pace of cultural change. Brexit has become a form of identity politics. And healing the divide is going to be difficult.

... but people in Europe should understand that "no deal" is a very real possibility and it would not take much to give that popular appeal in the UK.

Quote from: string on 2017-12-24, 15:33:06

... but people in Europe should understand that "no deal" is a very real possibility and it would not take much to give that popular appeal in the UK.

People in Europe vs people in the UK? 
Leaving the EU might become finalized during the next five years but considering the speed of continental drift, I'm afraid that leaving Europe will take much longer... Till then I'd consider the UK still part of Europe - geographically at least.

Personally I'm interested but deeply cynical about such charts especially considering:

o I voted remain but for me that is now history, the job now is to move forwards. A common attitude here but not so easy to place on such a chart. I would not know where to place myself
o the traditional characterisation between Labour and Conservative stereotypes is much too simplistic, if it has any validity now at all which I doubt
o authoritarian crops up now and then. Who was more authority - Stalin or Hitler, Corbyn or May?
o there is a large, oscillating, middle ground of people either don't  have opinions on theses things yet or don't  care
o In general (to authors of such things) - quit navel gazing, write your paper and get your brownie points but then get on and solve the issue in front of you

We over here have grown accustomed to this sort of insulting parody but the same can be said of the EU which seems incapable or realising that when you loose a wealthy member state of 65 million you have to be prepared to cut your cloth to suit the new budget reality. I suppose it's  possible that the EU machinery is cutting budgets and will live within its  reduced means, but if so I must have missed that.

The UK Government has stated from the off that it wished to retain good relations with the EU and that it had a political interest in the EU doing well. That has not been reflected (or only partially) by the EU negotiators who are clearly much more concerned with concepts of punishment and keeping the UK cash flowing into Europe at the same rate as before.

The phrase wanting to "have their cake and eat" it applies in spades to the EU.

The wish to have the EU do well was, I believe, generally well meant and genuine in the UK and that remains the case, but it's  not an attitude that would survive much more of the knuckle-dragging attitudes that parody represents.

Maybe the EU does not want good access to the UK market and wants it to become an off-shore competitor instead of a friendly and cooperating neighbour . I doubt that those on either side who do not knuckle drag feel that way but people in Europe should understand that "no deal" is a very real possibility and it would not take much to give that popular appeal in the UK.

But the sad fact is that they tend to be irrelevant in the minds of many. I've  noticed it in the Scottish Independence turmoil, in the Catalan independence on-going saga and now also in Brexit. There comes a time when people simply don't  care about the economic arguments, the objective becomes limited to jingoistic notions of what winning means and practicalities get pushed aside. The is a context of what is happening when insults get thrown around. A bigger insult than one recieved neans a "win" however nonsensical thd insults were. Independence or bust becomes Independence whatever the consequences.

In my opinion the most vulnerable to falling into that way if thinking are the public who are not aware if the complexities and the political extremists who mould events and public opinion.

So I repeat my claim the a no deal scenario is a real possibility and behind that the argument that insults enhance that as a possibility. That would be a bad result for both sides of the negotiation table. That is why I object to such simplistic insults as having cakes while eating them.

Do you not think that the EU Executive should adjust it's plans in the light of it's  budget reducing, rather than simply going on spending  as if nothing is happening? (Over and above savings made in terminating the contracts of UK staff members that is).

BRUSSELS -- Montenegro and Serbia should be ready for EU membership in 2025 and Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Macedonia should be well-advanced on their path to EU accession by then, according to a draft of the European Commission's Western Balkans strategy seen by RFE/RL.

The strategy, which is expected to be made public on February 6, is part of an EU effort to breathe new life into the accession process for the six Western Balkan countries that remain outside the bloc.

The draft seen by RFE/RL states that "the Western Balkan partners now have a historic window of opportunity" and that "for the first time their accession perspective has a best-case framework" -- but adds that the timeline set out in the paper is realistic only if there is "strong political will, delivery of real reforms, and lasting solutions to disputes with neighbors."

The timeline is "ambitious and is meant to be an incentive," it says.

According to the document, 2019 will be a crucial year.

It is interesting, though not really surprising, that it is Serbia and Montenegro that are in the fast track category. After all these were the two parts of Rump Yugoslavia that started the Yugoslav wars, and Serbia was finally bombed into submission. A generation later they, and their erstwhile enemies, are set to join the EU. Of course, if it hadn't been for that war these countries would likely have been in the EU already.

...as already experienced in the Eurovision.

But of course. They are not barbarians. Besides, the EBU predates the EU.

Three of the countries are majority Muslim, but that is not likely to be a major issue.

Quote from: jax on 2018-02-06, 11:19:15

Three of the countries are majority Muslim, but that is not likely to be a major issue.

Do you believe that?

The total population of all six countries is less than Romania (or for that matter the number of Roma, gypsies, if we take the upper bound)

The most obvious problem with these countries is that they are dirt poor, even poorer than Bulgaria, today's poorest member. The second obvious problem is that they have all had recent experience with civil war, and there is still plenty bad blood. Third, none of them have good government, plenty corruption and crime. Today none of them would qualify.

Another class of problems is that they all, except Serbia that may count as mid-size, are small countries. Every country has a veto, and the number of possible vetos would go up from 27 to 33.

From then on, there will be no arguments against Turkey's membership.