Where debating everything under the sun is only the beginning

Amusingly (?), the previous entry on that website argues it's all about China.

Xi bet a decade of foreign policy on Khamenei’s ability to withstand American pressure, and the bet did not pay off. Operation Epic Fury was designed to break the Islamic Republic, but it may also have exposed the uncomfortable truth that Chinese influence in the Middle East was only as durable as the assumption that no one would ever call it into question, and in Zhongnanhai, they know it.

Trump and his entourage did not give any forethought to the particulars of the Iran war. They thought it would go as easily as the abduction of Maduro. They did not foresee the possibility that Iran would pose a danger to the strait of Hormuz. They paid even less attention to any wider ramifications.

This is what Oakdale meant when he said to pay attention how Russia and China react.

I'm always amazed at how easily you read the minds of others — indeed, it makes me think you've never actually met others...
Are you a bot?

Quote from: ersi – on 2026-03-17, 14:50:24

This is what Oakdale meant when he said to pay attention how Russia and China react.

But, indeed, these were some of my considerations.

In Venezuela, The Cuban security and the Chinese air control and protection equipment failed — miserably. In Iran, the Russian/Chinese air defenses were outright destroyed almost immediately.

In this case - as usual - I indirectly quoted yourself back to you, yet you say that you're amazed that I'm reading minds

Trump and his entourage did not give any forethought to the particulars of the Iran war. They thought it would go as easily as the abduction of Maduro. They did not foresee the possibility that Iran would pose a danger to the strait of Hormuz. They paid even less attention to any wider ramifications.

Quote from: ersi – on 2026-03-17, 14:50:24

Trump and his entourage did not give any forethought to the particulars of the Iran war. They thought it would go as easily as the abduction of Maduro. They did not foresee the possibility that Iran would pose a danger to the strait of Hormuz. They paid even less attention to any wider ramifications.

...which, again,, shows only your penchant for scoffing. Or do you really believe the U.S. Central Command  had not considered the things you mention?

I don't agree with your contention, that Operation Epoch Fury was all about China, even in this author's opinion,; and I don't see how you reached such.
Would you care to explain how you came to such a conclusion? (Yes, I read the whole piece...)

The Iran Question Is All About China

Why Operation Epic Fury Is the Opening Act of the Indo-Pacific Century

Iran is most often discussed as a nonproliferation problem, a sponsor of terrorism, a regional spoiler. Each of these framings captures a real problem, but none captures what matters most. The nuclear file, the militia archipelago stretching from Lebanon to Yemen, the question of Gulf security architecture: these only acquire their full meaning when read against the backdrop of Chinese grand strategy.

In fact, Beijing has spent years and billions of dollars building Iran into a structural asset. Everything that follows in the Middle East flows from this fact. Which is why Operation Epic Fury is the first American military campaign that threatens to sever that asset. By striking Iran directly, the Trump administration is dismantling, whether by design or by consequence, a pillar of China’s regional architecture.

The urgency of saying so plainly has never been greater. In June 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a 12-day campaign of precision strikes that destroyed Iranian enrichment facilities, killed over 30 senior commanders and a dozen nuclear scientists, and drew the United States into direct strikes on 3 nuclear sites. The Islamic Republic’s deterrent mythology, cultivated over four decades, collapsed within a fortnight. In late December, the largest protests since 1979 erupted across all 31 provinces, fueled by economic freefall and a population that no longer believed in the regime’s strength. The government responded in January 2026 with massacres that killed thousands, prompting the European Union to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and further increasing the isolation of the regime.

China is Scrambling

The men in Zhongnanhai do not rattle easily. Decades of patient statecraft, a foreign policy built on studied ambiguity, and an economy engineered to absorb external shocks have granted Beijing’s leadership a remarkable tolerance for turbulence. Operation Epic Fury, the American-Israeli air campaign now dismantling Iran’s military architecture, has produced something unusual in the corridors of Chinese power: visible confusion.

Xi Jinping is scrambling. The word is not used lightly. For a leader who has built his image on strategic composure and long-horizon thinking, the current moment is acutely dangerous. Not because China faces a direct military threat, but because every available response to the crisis in the Persian Gulf leads Beijing into a trap of its own contradictions.

The ceasefire in Iran has reinforced views among both adversaries and the NATO alliance that President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Tehran regime marks a strategic setback, bolstering China and Russia while squandering American strengths, according to people familiar with the thinking across capitals in Europe and the Middle East.

Maybe he should have bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki again?

Your take (and Bloomberg's) is myopic: How can we spin this to hurt Trump?

To your point: Is China getting oil through the Hormuz Straights?

But you don't mention what this kerfluffle will do to NATO....