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Topic: Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 201919 times)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #525
The proper solution is to make life in the countryside economically self-sufficient once again, so that it would be worth while to live there. People should be able to locally produce everything they need, grow their own food on the spot, build houses by themselves without needing to drive far away on a piece of foreign equipment to buy more pieces of foreign equipment. Local production and processing of everything as far as possible is the way of restoring ecological consciousness, so that wherever you look, you see things in terms of ecology, you know by what natural processes the thing arised, how it can be practically used, and what happens to it when disposed a given way.

Only people with this kind of ecological awareness will carry the humanity further after the catastrophe.

This man is a Mad Max ecologist... :)
That's the way to go.

Les beaux esprits toujours se rencontre...

Everything Ersi said is the purest truth.

A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #526
Good cause, but hardly anything about it is being done right. This only foments skepticism. Nowadays you can be a climate skeptic, i.e. skeptical about climate, and think you are onto something clever.

Skepticism is often a good thing, including challenging AGW. However the problem is that so many of them have devolved into deniers that repeat things that are demonstrably false such as that global warming has reversed since 1998. 1998 was an unusually warm year and explains why . They also say things like "Since urban heat islands can add as much as 10 degrees F to nighttime temperatures, this can create a warming signal over time that is related to a particular location, and not the climate as a whole. " (From the first page of the Climate Skeptic site). It doesn't take much effort to learn the heat island's climate trends follow the same trends as rural stations and the most warming seems to be taking place in the Arctic, where you can be hundreds (if no thousands) of miles from any city with a heat island. Incidentally here in Las Vegas we have one of the largest heat island effects in the country :p

Also they seem to scan for what they consider strawmen instead of looking a the big picture. Further, they provide links to old articles that are no longer at the location they link to. An example of this is to a study about butterflies . Note you can't actually read the study there to draw an conclusion and then note the article seems to be from 1996. Still going on about nearly 20 year old studies, guys? And not providing a correct link? Really?

Perhaps the skeptics are too busy trying to be clever instead of coming up with counter science that will force climate change scientists to improve and refine their methods.  And there's precious little to even challenge a laymen that agrees with AGW. Clever is not a synonym for scientific. Of course, Ersi  said " think you are onto something clever" not that they actually are.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #527
Sang, did you read ersi's link to climate-skeptic? Or Ridley's article? :)

It's true, I get most of the links to papers I read — from the internet… (There are some few "bloggers" whom I trust, explicitly; Judith Curry is one.) You -apparently- get yours from NGOs or their publicity organs. Yes, I know that's an un-fair accusation: You were a Sociology major; what would you know about science? :) (OK: I delivered the expected jibe…) Now, why I ask, are the papers I've mentioned, linked to, and wanted to discuss — ignored? (By you… You can explain or not.)
(That butterfly paper could have been yours to read, for a mere $32 American! That's Nature for you! But I don't see why you were miffed: It supported your position… And it wasn't me who linked to it!)
I didn't read it, either: Broke bum that I am, I only read "free" science! But -I grant you- when I learned that the author refused to share the paper's data with other scientists, I dismissed it. I'm not into "secret science"… :))

To ersi (and Belfrager): If we "revert" to the mode of existence you'd like, how many human beings could the Earth support? :(
Two billion? Surely, not much more… What to do with the rest? And their increase?
—————————————————————————————————————————
For those of a more technical bent: Keeling's c2000 paper -about tidal effects in our solar system upon our weather- is a compelling critique of the tyros's presumption of "something we can control"…
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #528

To ersi (and Belfrager): If we "revert" to the mode of existence you'd like, how many human beings could the Earth support? :(
Two billion? Surely, not much more… What to do with the rest? And their increase?

I can pull a similar strawman: You want to kill off humanity as fast as possible? Why heat and pollute the planet? Why not simply nuke it?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #529
Three nations currently could do this… :) But would they? (I don't think so.)
You're not pulling a "similar" straw-man argument: You're ignoring a direct question about the consequences of what you propose…
(Not that that's anything unusual! :) You still think you're in High School debating class…)
Or -perhaps- you propose nothing, and merely rant about your "back to Nature" philosophy…a curmudgeon and know-nothing, determined to be but an irritant! :)

Sang, please read the already-linked-to (…by not-me!) essay by a respected science journalist: link.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #530
But I don't see why you were miffed: It supported your position…

Once again, you missed it completely. Why are they after such an old paper, one that most casual readers won't bother paying for? Also I don't think you even know my position.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #531
Quote
In the 19th century, scientists realized that gases in the atmosphere cause a "greenhouse effect" which affects the planet's temperature. These scientists were interested chiefly in the possibility that a lower level of carbon dioxide gas might explain the ice ages of the distant past. At the turn of the century, Svante Arrhenius calculated that emissions from human industry might someday bring a global warming. Other scientists dismissed his idea as faulty. In 1938, G.S. Callendar argued that the level of carbon dioxide was climbing and raising global temperature, but most scientists found his arguments implausible. It was almost by chance that a few researchers in the 1950s discovered that global warming truly was possible. In the early 1960s, C.D. Keeling measured the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: it was rising fast. Researchers began to take an interest, struggling to understand how the level of carbon dioxide had changed in the past, and how the level was influenced by chemical and biological forces. They found that the gas plays a crucial role in climate change, so that the rising level could gravely affect our future. (This essay covers only developments relating directly to carbon dioxide, with a separate essay for Other Greenhouse Gases. Theories are discussed in the essay on Simple Models of Climate.)
(source — or countless others)
Sang, I don't know who you hero-worship. But do you think you are smarter, more knowledgeable and better informed than the journalist (Matt Ridley) who wrote the essay I linked to above? (I'm pretty sure you're not… :) )

Again, I ask you: Why do you ignore Keeling's later work?

And, since you don't want to accept "old" science — why is the speculation of Arrhenius so important to you?! :)

But you're right: I don't know your "position"… (It took a great long time, and other more intelligent interlocutors than me — to tease out what ersi really believes!) Might you deign to explain yourself? :)
————————————————————————————————————————
Many years ago, I asked a question of a certified nuclear physicist: What is so important about "renormalization"? (He worked at a weapons factory a little west of me… :) ) He just winked, and said, "Renormalization was very deep!" Ooh!
But -as best as I can tell- the math of the best theories we have of quantum effects, when -necessarily- are couched in partial differential equations — they throw infinity back at us! So, we took the best measurements we could, of those factors, and plugged them in — in place of what our math insisted was infinity… And violá we got reasonable answers… So: Everything's hunky-dorry!
I remain unconvinced… If "deep" had become a new synonym for "it works," no one had told me!
And if understanding had ceased to be a goal of scientific investigation, I likewise wasn't informed.

Your view of CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropgenic Global Warming, aka "Climate Change") is well-represented: Man is mucking up the environment by using fossil fuels, and He should be stopped! (I'm sure you'll try and back away from that… :) ) My view is a little different:

I think we should continue to try and understand the Earth's climate "system" — for our benefit. I think the various political factions trying to drive the debate about climate science should be ignored — they have nothing important to say…
The few climate scientists who prefer "doing science" should be encouraged, no? :)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————
Oh, and BTW: Did you think my simple question posed to ersi was a straw-man? :) Consider what happens, if people in Nevada have to survive — by subsistence-farming? :)
Or people in California's central valleys — without irrigation?! (I'd hazard, close to a billion people would die, pretty damn quick! But — who cares!? As long as we're -us few survivors- close to Mother Earth? :) )
————————————————————————————————————————————————————
The ridiculous propensity of Man to choose low-land areas near oceans to populate is well-documented. And we've managed (…look at south-eastern Florida, or -Frensie- your own country!) to find ways to accommodate our propensities is a testament to our gullibility or our persistence!
Should we consider decimating (literal meaning… ! :) ) our economies, to accommodate these "outliers"?
Are you that important, as a place? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #532
The ridiculous propensity of Man to choose low-land areas near oceans to populate is well-documented. And we've managed (…look at south-eastern Florida, or -Frensie- your own country!) to find ways to accommodate our propensities is a testament to our gullibility or our persistence!
Should we consider decimating (literal meaning… !  :)  ) our economies, to accommodate these "outliers"?
Are you that important, as a place:)

Like I said, this place will be just fine. More so than most of the world. But yes, if decimating our economies were necessary, which it isn't, shouldn't it at least be rationally compared with the consequences of the alternatives?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #533

Oh, and BTW: Did you think my simple question posed to ersi was a straw-man? :) Consider what happens, if people in Nevada have to survive — by subsistence-farming? :)

The strawman consists in the assumption that people in Nevada have to become subsistence farmers. What I actually said: People should be able to locally produce everything they need, grow their own food on the spot, etc., i.e. local production (different from mere subsistence farming, even though this is what I personally prefer) should be possible, not a requirement. 

Do you notice the difference? Of course you don't. You often mouth off about big global CO2-munching government too in this connection.

In demand-driven (and demand-fomenting) capitalism, small-scale agriculture has no economic chance to build a local business cycle. Even the currently trendy eco-branding follows the same national and supranational marketing patterns as the ordinary agri-industry. And people cannot tell the difference.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #534
How is it, ersi, that you -and hardly anyone else does- know how people should live? :)
Perhaps you should revert to a hermitage, and keep to yourself… You don't seem to care for others; which is to say, you'd like the world to yourself — or, at least, run your way.
But couldn't most "others" make the same claim, on you? (Or are you that special?)
Why -other than that you're not comfortable with it- should "economy" be restricted to what you call locality? (Must people be as limited as other animals? :) )
By all means, be a home-body. But you overstep your authority -and your understanding- when you'd prescribe such for everyone else…
Unless there's something you're not telling us. Hm.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #535
How is it, ersi, that you -and hardly anyone else does- know how people should live?

Now note what he really said "People should be able to locally produce everything they need..." In other words, have the capacity to do so if they choose to do so. That completely different from saying people will be required to, or even that they should. It's not just positions that you twist into an unrecognizable shape. The question becomes "is it deliberate?"
I think the various political factions trying to drive the debate about climate science should be ignored — they have nothing important to say…
So when are you gonna do that? In science the real debate is not emissions are causing climate change. That's long settled. Humanity is. The real questions are by how much and what are the consequences.
Your view of CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropgenic Global Warming, aka "Climate Change") is well-represented: Man is mucking up the environment by using fossil fuels, and He should be stopped! (I'm sure you'll try and back away from that…  :)  ) My view is a little different:

So is mine :p Did you read what I actually wrote. I spoke of newer, less polluting and more efficient technologies replacing the old and thus the lower emissions economy could very well have a higher real GDP than the current one. What I wrote has nothing to with "... He should be stopped! " which implies force.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #536
Here ya go--- equal opportunity.

What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #537
In science the real debate is not emissions are causing climate change. That's long settled. Humanity is. The real questions are by how much and what are the consequences.
Even in this simplistic estimation, your biases predominate: The "long settled" part is political illusion… (Or do you think "affect" and "have an effect" mean "control"? :) ) Yes, all organisms on Earth have some effect upon their ecologies; if we can't reasonably answer the questions "by how much and with what consequences," then what are we talking about?
I spoke of newer, less polluting and more efficient technologies replacing the old and thus the lower emissions economy could very well have a higher real GDP than the current one.
If such are mature enough, they will accomplish what you say… But shouldn't these "newer, less polluting and more efficient technologies" have to compete with the old?
I'm all for innovation. But I'm not for legislative destruction! (Creative destruction is to be expected… :) ) All the so-called "green" energy sources available right now are able to provide less than 20% of current usage… And, without government subsidies, they are even less cost-effective.
(There are some -very local- exceptions; we should use and enjoy them!)

Let's jump back to the beginning: What science is there that suggests that human technology is about to or likely to "destroy" the Earth's "climate system"?
If you fall back on the IPCC, you've reverted to the political realm… If you won't read widely in the field, you'll need to rely on authority… If you pick authorities that have been shown to be -shall we say? :)- untrustworthy, why should your viewpoint be considered?

No coercion? Wow! Tell Obama and his EPA… No corruption? Wow! Tell the EU; or simply scan the results of the measures applied since the Kyoto Protocols… (And don't forget the VW diesel scandal! :) ) Peer review? Hm. What rock have you been hiding under… :) It's broken, for reasons that were forecast generations ago…
All that's really left of the CAGW theory is the monied political interests. And their influence will wane, or their efforts will collapse their support…
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #538
Your post isn't worth my time answering.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #539
Your post isn't worth my time answering.
When you don't understand the topic and have no means to do so that won't "break" your mind-set, of course not! :)
I can understand, if you don't think you can grasp the science. I can accept it, if you've determined that political goals outweigh intellectual honesty. I can even believe that you recognize neither in yourself: You've been well-taught, in pseudo-science…
But I'd thought you were a little more capable. My bad!
Carry on, in the fog of your politics…
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #540
Just another "means nothing" post:
Quote
In some ways, in fact, science communication is expanding rapidly. The number of science blogs has grown tremendously, for example. But the number of such outlets that can be relied upon to provide accurate, or un-spun, information is tougher to track. As Nadia El-Wady, the president of the World Federation of Science Journalists, put it last year, there are “only a few pockets of excellence in an ocean of mediocrity.”
Diving into this arena requires time, some level of culture change and even courage, particularly given how the Web can be an amplifier for unfounded attacks and disinformation as much as knowledge. But hunkering down, as some institutions – including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – tried to do after recent controversies, is probably not a sustainable approach in the long haul. As the IPCC prepares its Fifth Assessment Report, it does so with what, to my eye, appears to be an utterly inadequate budget for communicating its findings and responding in an agile way to nonstop public scrutiny facilitated by the Internet. I would love to think that the countries that created the climate panel could also contribute to boosting the panel’s capacity for transparency, responsiveness and outreach….
…The alternative is to hunker down, as if waiting for a storm to pass. But the explosive changes afoot in how people share information and shape ideas are no stray storm.
Interpreting them that way would be like mixing up weather and climate.
(source)


Would y'all like my comments…? Or would you prefer I lay back and "lurk"? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)


Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #542

Would y'all like my comments…? Or would you prefer I lay back and "lurk"?  :)

No one answers him? he's begging...
:)

Some people are able to make pretty interesting comments on things that they think don't exist, such as atheists about God. Not so with Oakdale. At times he says he's pursuing truth, but his pursuit invariably consists in denouncing and denying things. He has also said that truth itself is reification, so it looks like he is vigorously pursuing nothing. Which is more painful to watch rather than interesting.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #543
Some people prefer completely "academic" debates… And some insist theories that are provably wrong are still valuable, and that the criticism of such is denunciation and denial! :) (Note those terms: Political and religious/psychiatric; no hint of the scientific…)

I wish, ersi, you knew what reification meant. But I fear your personal philosophy doesn't permit you such understanding.
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #544
Not sure if this should go here, but it's starting to look like just about all car makers all over the world were messing with their exhaust systems: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/09/mercedes-honda-mazda-mitsubishi-diesel-emissions-row

Quote
Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Mazda and Mitsubishi have joined the growing list of manufacturers whose diesel cars are known to emit significantly more pollution on the road than in regulatory tests […]

“The issue is a systemic one” across the industry, said Nick Molden, whose company Emissions Analytics tested the cars. The Guardian revealed last week that diesel cars from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo and Jeep all pumped out significantly more NOx in more realistic driving conditions.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #545

I wish, ersi, you knew what reification meant.

It's the buzzword that in the mind of the nominalist is the killer argument that needs no backup of its own. You have taught me well.


Not sure if this should go here, but it's starting to look like just about all car makers all over the world were messing with their exhaust systems...

The gap between lab tests and real-life measurements - 30% to 50% is common - has been known among expert mechanics all along, but marketing is strictly separated from experts. The principle of the separation of powers, you see.

For example, car users have been questioning gas consumption figures for decades. They are free to keep questioning. They'll keep getting the same non-answers.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #546
For example, car users have been questioning gas consumption figures for decades. They are free to keep questioning. They'll keep getting the same non-answers.

I see plenty of people with driving styles who should take a good hard look at the way they brake and accelerate before thinking about questioning anything.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #547

For example, car users have been questioning gas consumption figures for decades. They are free to keep questioning. They'll keep getting the same non-answers.

I see plenty of people with driving styles who should take a good hard look at the way they brake and accelerate before thinking about questioning anything.

So do I, except that I was talking about technically aware people who do the measurements of their own. And the specs should reflect reality anyway. For example phone and laptop battery stats tend to match reality much better, even though they depend a lot on what you are doing with it.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #548
For example phone and laptop battery stats tend to match reality much better, even though they depend a lot on what you are doing with it.

I tend to exceed them. I find high screen brightness unpleasant, and a phone notifying you every time you receive an e-mail the highest degree of idiocy. On my netbook I have a reflex to hit Fn + F4 (= turn off backlight) whenever I need a moment to think. Reality takes many forms. But of course manufacturers will err on "my" side of average, just as best by dates on food are designed to shield food producers from risk on the one hand and to promote increased consumption (through throwing away perfectly good food) on the other. On most soft cheese, the best by date is more of a "let it mature at the very least until" date. :P

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #549
For example, car users have been questioning gas consumption figures for decades.


That may relate more to the fuel. They put up to 10% ethanol in gasoline nowadays. I've gotten around a hundred extra miles out of a tank using non-ethanol gas on trips.

Diesel engines tend to get way higher MPG.