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Topic: Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 201920 times)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #475

When the so-called science is so politicized, only a fool would ignore the political rhetoric…

You mean liken when GOP politicians take money from ExxonMobile and "skeptical" sites and poor excuses for scientists do the same do the same? (9 out of 10 of them) :) Now invoking RICO on this issue is going too far and I seriously doubt that Obama will pursue this infringement of First Amendment rights, despite the fact that by 1977 Exxon knew that its products would cause climate change. (remember that by natural cycles, we should actually be in a cooling trend)
But so-called environmentalists do, frequently, urge governments to institute a "back to the Stone Age" agenda; and -at the same time- ask for more government funds!

Who?  How many? What percentage does that amount to? You have screwballs in every movement.


Midnight, I gotta ask: Do you believe that the scientists who disagree with you on this subject only do so because they're taking money from the oil companies? Just for a moment, consider--- could it be possible that their observations just don't match the "consensus" line and they're saying so?

I say again--- if everybody who dares to disagree with "you" (in quotation marks because now this applies to everybody, myself included) is ignorant, in cahoots with the cartels or otherwise needs to shut up---- then this discussion ceases to have useful purpose. It is no longer about science, but about intolerant religious views. It may need to be shut down.
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #476
It may need to be shut down.

Nah. Let it ride. Definitively a microcosm of what this topic is.

Main problem is I can agree with points from them all; I'd just add a big long "buuuuuuuuut..." to most of it. That's not the conversation that "they" want to have.  

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #477
Pretty good job of psychoanalysing my internet persona. Only a few points to clarify.


Your frustration is your own fault. Though, I doubt it exists. That was for dramatic purposes.

So, which way is it? Do I have frustration or not? Is it my own fault or not?


What you usually try to do is dissect other views and convolute terminology... Presented in a condescending tone that suggests others are fools because you don't understand.

Here the same thing. Is it really so that I don't understand? What specifically do I not understand?


It's very human to not want to admit you're wrong ...

It's common for those who don't care about truth. There are a few people here open about the fact that they don't care about truth, such as Oakdale (wow, I found a positive thing to say about him!), whereas the majority here avoids the word "truth" altogether, for fear of giving it ontological status.

Meh. Long story short, what was I wrong about? Come on, I am eager to admit it!


Pretty sure I'm only in this conversation over a point about polarizing opinions. This quote is a short-sided play [on words]* not an attempt at understanding. A further point I'd make is that polarization of any topic leads to opposition bias. You literally can argue the other side of something because you are against someone else not because it's a valid position.

We are back to square one. If you wanna drop the bullshit we can continue back on topic [That's on both our parts]*.

You overwhelmingly enjoy habitual chit-chat on safe topics for pastime, but always in the back of your mind you are silently irritated by some attitudes. There's a certain limit to what you call condescending tone, and when you perceive that the cup is full, you give expression to your righteous indignation and expose the offender for the hypocrite he is. (If you forgive my humble attempt to return the favour of psychoanalysis :) )

Now, I agree with you that deliberate polarising of opinions is an offence. I also agree that hypocrites deserve the emotionally painful lessons they get. However, I make a distinction between opinion and fact. Concerning facts, one is either right or wrong, and those who are wrong deserve to know it. It's wrong in principle to dispute or deny facts. It's intellectual dishonesty and there's no opinion or second thought about it.

It's not a matter of opinion whether economy has priority over ecology or the other way round. It's a matter of fact. It's a simple thought exercise:

1. Have ecology and economy side by side.
2. Take economy away, while ecology remains. Is life still possible or not?
3. Take ecology away. Can economy remain?

In the pointed sense, this is the choice we are facing, certainly in our post-nuclear hyperindustrial global civilisation. The variables in the equation may allow for some shapes of opinion, but not the principle. And I repeat, this is the issue in the pointed sense. (Not sure if "in the pointed sense" is understandable English to you, but I know what I mean and I'm always okay with what I mean. So there.)
 
All in all, thanks for a refreshing intermission.




Main problem is I can agree with points from them all; I'd just add a big long "buuuuuuuuut..." to most of it. That's not the conversation that "they" want to have.

Try first. Conclude later.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #478
Fine. Let's get the B.S. out of the way then:
So, which way is it? Do I have frustration or not? Is it my own fault or not?

If you did then it would be. otherwise it's as I said.

There's no point in trying to show certainty with a psychoanalysis. People distance themselves from it regardless. It's also very human to wanna make someone else look wrong.
internet persona.

See.
Meh. Long story short, what was I wrong about? Come on, I am eager to admit it!

In this particular case.. That you were in fact being intentionally obtuse.
You overwhelmingly enjoy habitual chit-chat on safe topics for pastime, but always in the back of your mind you are silently irritated by some attitudes. There's a certain limit to what you call condescending tone, and when you perceive that the cup is full, you give expression to your righteous indignation and expose the offender for the hypocrite he is. (If you forgive my humble attempt to return the favour of psychoanalysis  :)  )

Fair assessment. Try to allow variances in my moods and that you probably see more of my satirical or sarcastic side here. In fairness: I've been doing this a while now. I used to take a more serious approach. [May be I'll come back to that one day.]*

Try first. Conclude later.

I keep coming close. But you're right I get irritated - just not silently. The idea of pushing a 1000lbs of B.S. uphill and over the cliff just seems like too much work... For now.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #479
It's not a matter of opinion whether economy has priority over ecology or the other way round. It's a matter of fact. It's a simple thought exercise:

1. Have ecology and economy side by side.
2. Take economy away, while ecology remains. Is life still possible or not?
3. Take ecology away. Can economy remain?
Such simplistic thinking is the main reason some societies require a Ministry of Truth… Reification run rampant!
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #480

Meh. Long story short, what was I wrong about? Come on, I am eager to admit it!

In this particular case.. That you were in fact being intentionally obtuse.

Hey, this question was rather important to me. I hoped you would correct me concerning some fact. Instead, you are just annoyed by my attitude. What an anticlimax.


Such simplistic thinking is the main reason some societies require a Ministry of Truth… Reification run rampant!

Some day when I feel like talking to you, I might explain what "in the pointed sense" means. If I explained it today, it would make you look simplistic. In the previous post I said something positive about you and I don't want to ruin it so soon.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #481
Midnight, I gotta ask: Do you believe that the scientists who disagree with you on this subject only do so because they're taking money from the oil companies?

The numbers in the field that disagree on the basic premise that humans are altering the climate are so low that they very well could be. We're talking ninety-seven percent agreement. And the funny thing is that greater the expertise in the area, as demonstrated by education level and the relevance to the subject of the and number peer reviewed publications the climatologist appears in, the greater percent that agree. If you stick to "scientist" , regardless of field and level of expertise, I believe the agreement level falls into the high 80 percent range. I don't have time right now to dredge the survey back up. The point scientific debate on this is over. Unfortunately, many people have been duped into thinking the issue is scientifically controversial.
I say again--- if everybody who dares to disagree with "you" (in quotation marks because now this applies to everybody, myself included) is ignorant
Everybody on the planet is ignorant about something. Academically, my fields are sociology,psychology and marketing. Ask me about astrophysics and I have no idea besides what I've been about to catch on a a documentary that I watched on Netflix. Don't take it so personally.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #482
Such simplistic thinking is the main reason some societies require a Ministry of Truth… Reification run rampant!

A Ministry of Truth might well be correct on some issues. In fact, it's well known the most effective propaganda is truth mixed with lies - ie allowing the audience to fall into the fallacy of assuming that because some propaganda is correct all of it must be. That said, this is not 1984. You can question the science behind AGW without the helicopter or drone appearing outside your window. Unfortunately, the skeptics have failed to provide evidence that can withstand peer review. Perhaps that's why we end up with references to real and fictional totalitarian regimes in light of actual contrary data ;)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #483
If anyone is actually interested, here's the link to a new book (I got from ClimateAudit, which got it from Climate Etc. …). I haven't read it yet; just down-loaded it, to see that the link worked.
Anyone willing to share the experience of reading it, here? :)
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #484
It doesn't take long before we encounter information that's objectively incorrect. On page 35, there's the claim global stopped in 1998. If you believe humans have been impacting the planet or not, this is non-factual. There he said/she said, Democrats said/Republicans said, Protestants said/Catholics said, etc. There's also times when the claims repeated by one side are objectively and demonstrably wrong.

Before Mjmsprt starts in that I'm calling the author a liar, it should be noted that Alan Longhurst is a biological oceanographer. It wouldn't be surprising if a climatologist made a mistake while trying to classify a newly discovered species of fish, would it? ;) This is part of what I said about the greater the expertise in climatology, the greater the agreement that humans are the main source behind the current warming trend.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #485
It doesn't take long before we encounter information that's objectively incorrect. On page 35, there's the claim global stopped in 1998.
I have to assume you didn't read through to page 35, Sang. But, since others will give you the benefit of the doubt (…pun intended!), I'd ask that you source your contention.

(BTW: The paper "Where do winds come from?" is free to download at this link… I'm looking forward to reading it! Are you? :) )
————————————————————————————————————
An aside (which I'd whisper, had this forum had the functionality): I think I now know why you so dislike PDFs and prefer Word documents.
————————————————————————————————————
The relevant portion of page 35 is the first paragraph:
Quote
The role played by vulcanism and sulphur dioxide in controlling the global [climate] is not much discussed by AR5 although this Assessment does note that volcanic eruptions are "the dominant cause of the externally-forced climate change on the annual to multi-decadal time scales", but discussion is anecdotal and primarily concerned with the consequences of recent and very large events. In the recent literature, too, emphasis has been placed on the cooling effect of volcanic dust veils perhaps because [the are] stratospheric warming events due to three explosive volcanic eruptions are prominent in radio-sonde and satellite data in the decades of the 20th century and because a general stratospheric cooling trend ceased at the same time as the interruption of tropospheric warming after 1998.
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #486
This selection:

Quote
But a more! complex! explanation for the observed lack of surface warming
after 1998 is that!of Kaufmannand others, who invoke declining irradiance at the end
of an 11Ayear solar cycle..
There's actually more to it than that. Unfortunately many bugs occurred when I was trying to copy/paste it for you and I have work to do and don't have a couple cleaning up the text for you. The author is correct when he points out that conditions are likely more complex than we realize. However, is assertion that there's a lack of of surface warming on the planet is inaccurate. The declining irradiance from the sun is, and what could well be what's saving from greater warming for now. I even found a article that claims we could be heading into another little ice age because of solar activity; but we're still awaiting peer review of that hypothesis and how the interaction with greenhouse emissions will play out. It should be interesting to see if the sun's current cycle completely overrides AGW. Despite mjmsprt's assertions, I am not religious on the subject.

Even if we simply have short term AGW, followed by a natural cooling trend, it's still time to consider graduating from fossils fuels. Bring down the cost of batteries to make at least hybrid cars the normal and enjoy the economic benefits of a new, greener, industrial revolution (quite the opposite of deindustrializing and reverting to living in caves.)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #487
Unfortunately many bugs occurred when I was trying to copy/paste it for you […]
Not to worry! When I tried to "copy & paste" what I posted, I quickly gave up that tack. I can read and type… (And copy edit! :) )
[The author's] assertion that there's a lack of of surface warming on the planet is inaccurate.
(Correction, please: the data's assertion; the various papers I've read that try to "explain away" the failure of model predictions are -at this point- lame!) What data set shows increasing rates of surface warming? (…Because, if we're racing towards a cusp of a climate catastrophe -a "tipping point- one would like to know!) So, please, mention where I can find the raw data and whatever code and supplemental material provided: I'm not so trusting as you — there's no one who's word I'd take, at this point.)
Even if we simply have short term AGW, followed by a natural cooling trend, it's still time to consider graduating from fossils fuels. Bring down the cost of batteries to make at least hybrid cars the normal and enjoy the economic benefits of a new, greener, industrial revolution (quite the opposite of deindustrializing and reverting to living in caves.)
I've heard this sort of argument from you many times before…
By all means, invent the technologies you want, create the infrastructure to support them and become "filthy" rich! (I'll applaud you. Heck, I'll use them myself. I, too, like this planet!) But disabuse yourself of the notion that such things happen, on command.

Or keep voting Democrat… :) (Shit! Or Republican…) We do need a new "take" on politics. :(
———————————————————————————————————————————
You said "it's still time to consider graduating from fossils fuels"… If all you want is a pat on the head and a diploma! :) But, seriously, have you never met anyone who thought you should "graduate" from life?
Why do you think yourself qualified to determine how most of the world's economy should be structured and run?
(Are you going to support sub-Saharan African populations? Indian? Chinese? No. You're going to assume the mantle of King of the World — and parade around naked, until some peasant child cries "Look!"
But you won't be embarrassed, will you? :) Nope! And, then, friend, you'll be mighty-glad for "Global Warming"! :) )
I reiterate my challenge: Do the work, or finance it, yourself! Otherwise, you're just looking for converts to your bizarre ideology — much as mjm surmised…
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #488

Unfortunately many bugs occurred when I was trying to copy/paste it for you […]
Not to worry! When I tried to "copy & paste" what I posted, I quickly gave up that tack.

I can copy&paste easily. Here's a quote I grabbed with Qpdfview, my fav PDF viewer,

Quote from: Alan Longhurst, Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science

(iii) Consequences of anthropogenic modification of the environment: this effect will be greatest where human populations are most crowded or where deforestation, intensive agriculture, industrial or petrochemical activities and simple occupation of space by buildings will modify regional climates more radically than any effect of anthropogenic CO2. It is not our motor cars that are causing rapid warming in eastern Amazonia and many other regions, but the intensive ploughing of cleared forest regions for – of all things – growing biofuel-­‐ producing plants for the same vehicles. These effects are easier to identify in the global surface air temperature data than any global effect of CO2 to which all warming is habitually attributed.

So, here's a point about misattributing causes. Not that there's no warming, but that there are other causes to it. The conclusion: Warming is there alright, and it obviously has its causes, attributable or not.



I find all this discussion off target because of a few important reasons.

1. It's not about warming. Not for me anyway. I don't care how warm the environment is. I care how livable it is, how clean and fertile it is, how well it sustains life and continues to do so. IPCC and the scientific consensus may have determined that warming is somehow a reliable measure of the ecological quality of environment - that's their business. For me only the ecological quality matters.

It's easy for AGW denialists to take this warming and attack its measurements and in so doing forget the actual topic. They should understand that there is a real reason why this discussion is taking place. Ecological catastrophies are not unheard of. With expanding industry, the situation is becoming increasingly dangerous. IPCC may have stupidly focused on warming and politicians may talk about "climate change", but the topic is how human activity affects the environment. That the effect is there has always been clear and that it's ever more pressing as the world population grows is obvious.

So, it's about ecology, not warming.

2. Once we have identified the actual topic, there's no uncertainty about it. The title of Longhurst's book is Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science. It has chapter headings and subheadings like Estimating certainty levels in the scientific literature, Can a global mean temperature be measured? whose thrust is to undercut the certainty of the measured trends.

It's okay to moderate alarmism, but there are things we know with absolute certainty. One of these things is that statistics is absolutely inadequate to establish causes. It can only, with occasional success, establish trends and correlations, provided that framing and sampling went right. In statistics it's very easy to miss the forest for the trees.

Therefore, if IPCC's "predictive models" are statistical, they are not really predictive due to the very nature of statistics. It's stupid to make oneself vulnerable like this for misunderstanding the limitations of their chosen tool and for misapplying the focus on warming when it should be on chemical and structural desintegration of the ecosphere, unstable dynamics of the environment, industrial pollution, and poisoning.

All this said, the denialists are even more wrong. Many pages ago, Oakdale victoriously referred to a funny statistician who thought he had proven that trends don't exist. Trends don't exist only if the world is made of statistics. But the world is not made of statistics. The world is made of things and processes. Statistics may fail to establish the trends of a process, but this doesn't mean that the process doesn't exist. Statistics is absolutely incapable of attributing causes, but this doesn't mean that there are no causes. Argument from ignorance is not a valid argument. (Not my problem if IPCC and the scientific consensus has set a statistical range at which a correlation gets termed a cause. It would only be my problem if I were their professor.)

That there are environmental processes with changeable ecological quality is beyond dispute. That human activity has had major impact on environmental processes and occasionally annihilated ecological quality is also beyond dispute. The solution is to loosen the stranglehold on ecology.



But this is the best try from Oakdale thus far. Congrats.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #489
Why do you think yourself qualified to determine how most of the world's economy should be structured and run?

Of course I don't. You still hold on notion that the goal is command economy, it's not. There have been several points in history when the old technology changes out quickly when enough inventions accumulate and others are improved upon to the point where the whole mode of life changed. Among these are the late 19th century and early twentieth. The amount of change that I'm suggesting is less than say, the difference between 1910 and thee 1950's when cars became the normal mode of transportation became cars, there was box in the kitchen that made its own ice, and there was a "bizarre" electronic box in the living room that showed moving pictures which I'm sure some folks trying to hold on the past said was impossible. I can just see socially conservative abacus users back then trying to poke holes in the concept of electronic calculators :lol: Just as waterwheels already existed for a couple decades before being replaced by coal plants, solar panels and other alternative methods generating electricity already exist, they just need to be improved upon. (even when they weren't directly supplying electricity, per se, they were powering machinery in early factories.) The batteries for electric and hybrid cars, likewise. The difference between then and now is that the stagecoach manufacturers lacked the clout to try to stop the replacement technology from developing and nitpick the flaws in the internal combustion engine.

But you don't actually doubt this can be done, do you? Your  conservative nature makes you fear the change.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #490
I can copy&paste easily. Here's a quote I grabbed with Qpdfview, my fav PDF viewer
Yup. I, too, have installed a few "better" viewers. But I'm unwilling to switch to Debian for such… :)
That there are environmental processes with changeable ecological quality is beyond dispute. That human activity has had major impact on environmental processes and occasionally annihilated ecological quality is also beyond dispute. The solution is to loosen the stranglehold on ecology.
On a serious note: These statements are worded in such a way as to be, essentially, meaningless.
Even so: Would you agree that most of the world's "environmental" problems are local, and amenable to local remediation?
——————————————————————————————
Your conservative nature makes you fear the change.
Your Liberal nature makes you fantasize about changes yet to have happened! :)
(Yes, I remember Rbt. Kennedy using a quote from Geo. B. Shaw…to say much the same.)
If such change is coming, indeed, inevitable: Why is ever more encompassing government coercion required, to facilitate it? :)

I don't oppose solar power. I'm not against electric cars or those powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Heck, I don't even mind people bicycling to and fro — provided they don't hog the road… What I oppose, what I'm against, what I mind — is the destruction of working technology (and economy), in the hope that something else will magically appear to replace it.
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #491

I can copy&paste easily. Here's a quote I grabbed with Qpdfview, my fav PDF viewer
Yup. I, too, have installed a few "better" viewers. But I'm unwilling to switch to Debian for such… :)

I'm on Manjaro, far away from Debian.


On a serious note: These statements are worded in such a way as to be, essentially, meaningless.
Even so: Would you agree that most of the world's "environmental" problems are local, and amenable to local remediation?

What's the meaningful difference between local and global?

An effective introduction of the ecological perspective in a single country may put it at an economic disadvantage compared to other countries. Then there are, for example, countries who poison rivers that run further into other countries. International agreements on these issues are indispensable.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #492
Quote from: ersi
What's the meaningful difference between local and global?

An effective introduction of the ecological perspective in a single country may put it at an economic disadvantage compared to other countries. Then there are, for example, countries who poison rivers that run further into other countries. International agreements on these issues are indispensable.


Agreed absolutely. Cesspits export their stink.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #493
Then there are, for example, countries who poison rivers that run further into other countries.

Something quite relevant for countries like Belgium and the Netherlands — almost all of the remaining junk in rivers comes from France.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #494
If such change is coming, indeed, inevitable: Why is ever more encompassing government coercion required, to facilitate it?

Who said it was? Who advocated for that here? Nobody! After all these years, you still don't understand that I'm against big government Your conservative to Right-wing pals would have far larger government in practice than I would.
What I oppose, what I'm against, what I mind — is the destruction of working technology (and economy), in the hope that something else will magically appear to replace it.

No magic is required. Just maturation of existing technologies.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #495

Then there are, for example, countries who poison rivers that run further into other countries.

Something quite relevant for countries like Belgium and the Netherlands — almost all of the remaining junk in rivers comes from France.

Your rivers flows up north? interesting, all ours but one flows south.
A matter of attitude.


Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #497

Your rivers flows up north? interesting, all ours but one flows south.

Do you get any junk from Spain in them?

Nuclear central of Almaraz, built at the river Tagus near our frontier.
I don't know what are we waiting for invading them in retaliation for such provocation.

Usually the problem it's not pollution but a centuries old dispute about the way they cut the water to us. Luckily we have several rivers starting here.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #498
Hehe, but no polluting mining industries or some such? Lucky! :)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #499
It had to happen-----.

What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!