Where debating everything under the sun is only the beginning

Recent events has probably scuppered plans for Sweden and Finland to join NATO for the time being. To quote the Swedish prime minister and leader of the main party opposed to membership: "Do we want to be in a military alliance with Trump and Erdogan?"

In the days since the election, the mood in Kyiv remains grim as Ukrainians and foreigners fear the worst if Trump decides to mend relations with Moscow.

Without a public guarantee from Trump that his administration will remain committed to bolstering NATO and its allies on Russia’s western flank, coupled with an extension of sanctions on Russia, Ukrainians now worry that they will be exposed to Putin’s next round of imperialist impulses.

“The outcome of this election leaves the situation in Ukraine looking very bleak. I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel for anyone,” said Reno Domenico, Democrats Abroad chairman and a 2016 Democratic National Convention delegate. “Putin has played a very weak hand brilliantly when it comes to Ukraine. He and Trump have already had a phone conversation where they pledged to cooperate with one another and to stay out of each other’s internal affairs. That, to me, sounds like the workings of a deal between the two.”

The Kremlin has praised Trump’s “America First” campaign, taking it as a signal that the incoming administration is open to the idea of signing a pact that would guarantee Moscow’s sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space.
Putin has long coveted this type of grand bargain – a Yalta II – as it would fundamentally destroy the U.S.-dominated post-Cold War order that he and Russia’s intelligence service so fervently hates.

Russia’s interference in the American election included  leaked emails from Clinton aides and the Democratic National Committe that the Kremlin is suspected of hacking. Russia also openly advocated for Trump, possibly hoping the U.S. will allow Putin to roughshod over Ukraine and other neighboring countries by helping to elect a candidate that is sympathetic to the Kremlin’s narrative.

This has caused visceral anger and a sense of anxiety amongst Kyiv’s expat business community, many of whom fear that Putin will offer incentives to Western investors in exchange for turning their attention away from Ukraine.

it was stalled in the Netherlands (!) in a referendum

An EU association treaty would benefit both the EU and Ukraine massively, but it was stalled in the Netherlands (!) in a referendum

Quote from: jax on 2016-11-20, 13:05:37

it was stalled in the Netherlands (!) in a referendum

I think I forgot to register to vote on that one, like someone who didn't vote for Hillary thinking she couldn't possibly lose against Trump.

But until last week’s Dutch referendum, we hadn’t seen a good example of how Russian influence actually works in a Western European election. The referendum, the first to be held under a new law, was launched when a populist, hoax-loving website gathered more than 300,000 signatures on a petition. Its editors were searching for an issue — any issue — and they found one: On Wednesday, Dutch citizens were asked to express their feelings about a European trade agreement with Ukraine, the same treaty that Ukrainians fought for, and died for, in February 2014.

In retrospect it is extraordinary that this treaty, designed to facilitate trade and cooperation between Ukraine and Europe, has caused any controversy at all. It is a long, technical document, more than a thousand pages of jargon. It already went into effect, on Jan. 1. It is not unique or interesting: The European Union has many such treaties, with Chile, Jordan and others. Of those who bothered to vote, it’s probably safe to say that few read it. One of the referendum’s initiators told a Ukrainian journalist of my acquaintance that he certainly hadn’t read it and wasn’t going to — but “don’t take it personally.”

It’s true that the Dutch far-left and the Dutch far-right had other goals. They used the vote to undermine a center-right, economically liberal government, and to galvanize their anti-European followers. They succeeded: On Wednesday, 32 percent of the Dutch population turned out, just above the percentage needed to make the referendum legal, and two-thirds of them voted against the treaty.

How many of them were moved by Russian disinformation? It’s hard to say, though certainly there has been a lot of it in the Netherlands in recent years, and it accelerated in recent months. Much of it served to create extra uncertainty and fears about nonexistent Ukrainian threats. Many of the “no” campaign’s themes, headlines and even photographs were lifted directly from Russia Today and Sputnik, Russia’s state propaganda website. According to a poll cited by a Ukrainian foreign ministry official, 59 percent of those who voted against the treaty listed, as an important motivation, the fact that Ukraine is corrupt; 19 percent believed that Ukraine was responsible for the crash of MH-17, the plane that Russian separatists shot down over Ukraine in 2014; 34 percent believed that the treaty would guarantee Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. Of those three points, the second two are certainly false. The first, while true, is hardly a rational argument against a treaty designed to reduce corruption in Ukraine.

Other than that, the campaign was muddled. Far-left campaigners took Palestinian flags to “no” rallies. The far-right talked about Muslim immigrants. The Dutch government, obligated to subsidize electioneering groups, botched the job and distributed money, among other things, to a group that printed Ukrainian national symbols on toilet paper as well as to animal rights and nuclear activists. Ironically, or perhaps not, the Dutch far-right used corrupt methods to fight corrupt Ukraine, and obtained a good deal of money under false pretenses.

The Dutch government itself never joined the campaign. In Amsterdam a month before the vote, I met Dutch officials who seemed openly afraid of the far-right media. They didn’t want to be denounced, or mocked in the tabloids, or shouted at by thugs in the street. The government’s majority is small, I was told. Sure there are lies being told, they said, but we don’t want to take the risk of correcting them.