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Messages - jax

52
DnD Central / Re: Grammatical Mutterings
Edit: Oh, and it also helps that in schools we rarely say "book" but rather there is a different fancy general word that means something like oeuvre in French, so that's what we say when we want to seem educated.

Going out on a limb and guessing "teosed", but more generally work, as in "the works of Chaucer" or some such.

(Hi)story is nice, as is tale (a telling), but better yet might be to go for work, or preferably opus (or opera).

Work, in all its form — opus, opera (you know the Opera lore I think, the "Opera" in "Multitorg Opera" comes from here), ergon… — is appropriate, though it focuses on the toil of the creator. That is also apparent in that the word for (a) work, in Swedish verk, is related to a word for "lingering pain", värk. But this word focuses on the producer, not the product.

For the generic word I like words like tale and saga, that which is told or said. But that assumes there is somebody telling. If the work is wrought by e.g. ChatGPT, it wouldn't quite be appropriate.

Appropriate it would be to end with a couple PIE reconstructions. "dough" and "fiction" may share an origin. *dheigh-As may advice, story and wit, *weid-.

.




53
DnD Central / Re: Grammatical Mutterings
A transition from book to novel wouldn't be too unreasonable, if we ignore that most books are not very novel.

None of the books used in English are that great. Book and beech (the tree) have the same wooden roots. Most obvious in Swedish, where the word for "book" is "bok", and the word for "beech" is also "bok". 

Novel comes from new(s), and that is fine, though most books are not particularly new either. In practically every other European language a novel is called a "roman", from the Roman language. That is pretty obsolete by now as well. 

(Hi)story is nice, as is tale (a telling), but better yet might be to go for work, or preferably opus (or opera). Or perhaps clip (cut, but also cleave). 
54
DnD Central / Re: Artificial intelligent - Ideas producer
You may refer to evolution as Darwinism if you like, but it is odd unless it is either in a historical context, as a way to contrast Darwin's ideas with someone else's, e.g. Lamarck, or, as in "Social Darwinism", ideas inspired by Darwin. It is a bit like referring to General Relativity as Einsteinism. Again, you could if you wanted to contrast to later (or earlier) theories of gravity, just like you could talk about Newtonian physics.

If you think evolution is "waning", that is your prerogative. It is evolving.
56
DnD Central / Re: Artificial intelligent - Ideas producer
There are those who actually have believed for decades that "AI" is a threat, and that seems a prevalent fear in Silicon Valley. Some also wanted to know if were were someone else's simulation.

But for others this could be a useful distraction from the real threat from the owners of said systems. If we are afraid of artificially superintelligent supermalevolent superpowers, the likes of Roko's basilisk, we might not pay attention on how much Big Data the Big Players have gathered on us. 

I don't worry about the systems as such, and by looking for "intelligence" (or "malevolence") we are looking in the wrong places. These are potentially very useful tools to gain power and wealth and prominence at the cost of others. It isn't "intelligence" that make them useful and/or dangerous, but their capability to take advantage of data collections for benevolent or malevolent uses.

This XKCD will have to go on repeat.

 


57
Hobbies & Entertainment / Re: TV Show Popularity in Your Neighborhood
Der gleiche Himmel about spy games between DDR and West Berlin. The first episode is promising.

If you enjoy Estonian subtitles, here you go https://jupiter.err.ee/1152509/seesama-taevas
If not, turn them off.

Sofia Hedin speaking German was a nice complement to her speaking Norwegian (well, Swedo-Norwegian, she played a Swedish princess) and English in other roles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zqhncmYeBY



The Same Sky had promise, but didn't reach it. Enjoyable in a way, as all series set in Berlin are, but ultimately 🐴🐴🐯🐯 as they say in Chinese.

Speaking of which, we got Counterpart, which I enjoyed, but not enough others, so it got cancelled after two seasons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRuaNHLp6OU

58
DnD Central / Re: The comings and goings of the European Union
There was popular support for EU, except when it mattered. Which in itself is interesting.



With a predictable outcome.



Us joining NATO is a vote of confidence in the EU. It has made Norway joining EU more likely, and the EU debate has started. Not happening soon nor in any hurry anyway, with Norway in NATO and the EEA.

The Muscovite Empire will dominate EU foreign and security policy the rest of this decade, but ultimately it will not be our primary concern. Putin has pushed a path East, so now not only Ukraine and Moldova will become members, uncertain even unlikely otherwise, but Georgia as well. That means that the EU will not just practically bordering the Levant (Cyprus), but practically border the Caspian Sea and Iran as well (Georgia).

Thanks to member state colonialism EU practically borders everywhere else too, but that is a different story.





By becoming NATO members, the last two military significant EU members that were not NATO members have now joined. Sure, Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, and Malta are still not NATO members, but while they may strategically or otherwise matter, militarily they don't. It is a bit like the Swedish oral tobacco exemption, or maybe more seriously the Danish opt-out on Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), which Denmark voted just a few months ago to drop. 

Denmark, Sweden (soon), and Finland are now fully integrated in the European security system, and Norway and Iceland pretty much are as well. 

NATO is a club. Club members are the EU countries (with those four exceptions), prospective EU members (though Turkey's prospects aren't that good at the moment), EU peripherals (Iceland, Norway, UK), and the former colonies as rjhowie would have said (currently self-governing). In addition to a military platform, it is a contact group, with some outreach to South Korea, Japan and Australia. It is not very formal, but it is quite useful to keep club members on at least adjacent pages.
60
DnD Central / Re: The comings and goings of the European Union
I haven't killed a thread like this since Opera. I truly am home.  :pirate:

Congratulations. Good job.


It was fervently hoped that this winter should be the winter of our discontent(s). Didn't quite pan out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cM-hvzHTtiA


While national governments may often struggle with their popularity, the EU is popular and improving in both soft and hard power. 




Popular support for Ukraine and the energy transition remains strong.




EU seals deal to send Ukraine 1M ammo rounds

Quote
The EU has reached a deal to send Ukraine 1 million rounds of ammunition within the next 12 months.
The plan — seen by POLITICO — will see the EU both donate ammunition from its own stockpiles and also jointly purchase new shells for Ukraine. It also leaves open the possibility that the EU could help countries collectively buy missiles for Ukraine. And it sets a goal to “jointly procure” these munitions “in the fastest way possible” before October.
Diplomats and ministers finalized the strategy during meetings in Brussels on Sunday and Monday. EU leaders are expected to give their final blessing at a summit in Brussels later this week.
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The deal represents a landmark juncture for the EU, marking the first time the self-described peace project has plotted to jointly buy arms for a country at war. Officials have argued the EU must evolve to meet the extraordinary moment — no less than the fate of democracy on European soil is at stake, they insist.

Quote
FAST TRACK PROCEDURE FOR 155mm ARTILLERY ROUNDS

In the run-up to the informal meeting of the Ministers of Defence Council, which took place in Stockholm on 7 and 8 March, Head of Agency Borrell set out three complementary tracks to deliver more artillery ammunition and to deliver it more quickly: first to help Member States in sending such ammunition from national stockpiles or from pending orders; second to aggregate demand and quickly move to 155mm collaborative procurement; and third to ramp up the manufacturing capacity of the European defence industry.

61
DnD Central / Re: Grammatical Mutterings
Really? Is there a difference? I consider the difference as imaginary (or rather unnecessary) as between Internet and internet. (As to "the", Estonian - and Finnish and Russian - don't have it and I'd rather we never did.)
Perhaps it's because we live in a Christian (Dutch: christian) nation. The distinction is somewhat imaginary when talking about bibles that contain the Bible but there are also bibles in the sense of authoritative works in general.

"The Bible, that's how it's written in the Bible, Biblestudy"
"biblepaper, a bible seller"
"an Italian food bible"

The general rule is that proper names are capitalized and type names aren't. So the Bible/Quran/New Testament is considered the same as something like the Guardian or the New York Times, albeit under a special "holy books" category. But an individual bible is a type name. The Bible is a bible and the New York Times is a newspaper. Or something like that. But yeah, it's certainly odd for the bible seller.

There are a lot of Xerox/xerox pair where the trade mark name lost their trademarks. Bible/bible, referring to the Phoenician city of Byblos is just one example.
63
DnD Central / Re: Today's Bad News
Speaking of these German burgers, far-right groups used to have wild plans to get into power.

Now they seem more intent on cutting power instead.

Fears of Extremist Campaign After Attack on US Power Station

Quote
Vandalism at four power stations in the western U.S. state of Washington over the weekend added to concerns of a possible nationwide campaign by right-wing extremists to stir fears and spark civil conflict.

Local police on Tuesday gave no information on who they suspected was behind the vandalism, which knocked out power on Christmas Day for about 14,000 customers in Tacoma, a port city area south of Seattle.

Tacoma Public Utilities, which owned two of the facilities targeted on Sunday, said in a statement that it was alerted by federal law enforcement in early December about threats to their grid.

Odd, though. The closer groups are to Putin, the more keen they are on energy warfare.
66
Browsers & Technology / Re: What's going on with Vivaldi Technologies?
I have been browsing the W3C ActivityPub spec. Basically Twitter/Mastodon, and while there is a inReplyTo field (taking a URI), not really a forum gateway. Sure a post can turn into a tweet or a toot or what have you, and the other direction could be finagled. But that is still not a forum. A forum would focus on the discussion, the topic, the thread, not the individual contributions of the participants.

Haven't seen if there is any meaningful discussion on what a forum gateway should be, how to manage it, and how to convince forum software makers to support this.

Vivaldi have had similar thoughts, with a bridge between Vivaldi users and their Mastodon server. Assuming you still have a Vivaldi account, you will also have another Mastodon user @vivaldi.net.
67
DnD Central / Re: Doesn't matter who wins the USA Elections the hypocrisy will continue
Oh, while US elections are mostly free (not always been the case), they are definitely not fair. While there are constraints on how fair any election system can be, it is very hard to make a First Past The Post system work reasonably well. And most of the time the US election system is manipulated in the other direction, like with gerrymandering.

Generally the parties in power will have little incentive to change an unfair system, as it is that system that put them into power In the first place. In particular Democrats would win most election (there are thousands) most of the time this century, if all else were the same. Of course all wouldn't be the same, Democrats would be in power much more, which would lead to different dynamics. More importantly, if FPTP were scrapped, there would be more parties than two with winning chances.

While the system as it is gives a net disadvantage to Democrats currently, that aggregate is hiding that there are Democrats in power because of the system, just not as many as those that are in power in spite of the system. And in the past, and quite likely in the future, the Democrats have been net benefactors relative to the Republicans (in the greater perspective both benefit from the system, the electorate is the losers).

So Democrats are absolutely correct to gripe about the election system. Republicans are quiet about it, or invent spurious reasons to support it, because currently it benefits them. When that flips, expect their roles and attitudes to flip as well.



Still, elections, fair or not, have rules. If unsupervised those rules are likely to be broken, which is why they are supervised and audited. A recount isn't challenge to the rules as such, counting has a margin of error. Automated recount is a good idea.

Making clearly spurious claims is not. There was a slight tendency from both parties to weaponize challenges, not because they believed in them, but for political advantage. That went into complete overdrive with Trump.

Money and media, and the implicit lobbying is more important. Americans care more about outside influence, because that is illegal, mot most calls come from inside the house. Republicans used to have a money advantage, especially from fossil and finance, but that is evening out. Democrats on their side had good Silicon Valley relationships, but they are souring. Republicans do have a media advantage, and will probably retain that ahead.

US intelligence document describes
UAE efforts to influence American politics – report




68
DnD Central / Re: DnD entropy
I have been browsing the W3C ActivityPub spec. Basically Twitter/Mastodon, and while there is a inReplyTo field (taking a URI), not really a forum gateway. Sure a post can turn into a tweet or a toot or what have you, and the other direction could be finagled. But that is still not a forum. A forum would focus on the discussion, the topic, the thread, not the individual contributions of the participants. 

Haven't seen if there is any meaningful discussion on what a forum gateway should be, how to manage it, and how to convince forum software makers to support this.
70
DnD Central / Re: DnD entropy
Easily, or too quiet. But with the right gate could be about right, perhaps.

I like forums. I don't like blogs much. And while microblogs like Twitter and Mastodon are OK, they are not really forums.

Forums worked when there was some site filtering right amount of people, Opera in our case. RSS kind of worked when there was a blogosphere. For fun, I checked the Wikipedia entry, last non-vandal edit was exactly one year ago. Not dead, but not very much alive either.
71
DnD Central / Re: DnD entropy
Now we're three, basically.

Was setting up escape plans for Twitter, expecting a slow Sanctuary-like decline over years. Like real-life events, things may unravel much sooner than that. Anyway, I came across Bridgy (Fed), and got me thinking whether we would want something con-federated or otherwise connected, or just slowly fade out.

This particular software doesn't connect this with that (yet?), but would there be something we wanted if such software existed?
72
DnD Central / Re: What's going on in Scandinavia, North Atlantic, Baltic States and Scotland?
University of Tromsø, Norway snagged themselves a Brazilian researcher on hybrid threats. He is not working there anymore.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585988275814428672


Norway’s Russian spy scandal should be a warning to all universities
Quote
Until last month, not many people were aware of the political warfare programme at Norway’s Arctic University in the northern city of Tromsø. But then, officers at the Norwegian Police Security Service arrested one of the researchers, claiming he was a Russian spy.

There is a striking irony in the fact that Moscow may have successfully infiltrated the very programme that investigates so-called “greyzone” activity — subversive actions by hostile states that fall below the threshold of formal conflict. But this arrest should also serve as a warning for academics across the world, whose work across borders and collaborative instincts make them particularly vulnerable at a time of rising geopolitical tensions.

José Assis Giammaria, purportedly a Brazilian citizen who has a masters degree in strategic studies from the University of Calgary, had specifically requested to work on the greyzone programme. It is also likely that he was interested in Tromsø as a centre of research on the High North, an increasingly contested region on Russia’s doorstep where melting Arctic ice is opening new sea routes and allowing access to rare minerals.

Giammaria gained a position in much the same way academics usually find employment: he was recommended to Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv, professor of security studies who leads the greyzone programme, by colleagues in Canada. She scrutinised his references and his University of Calgary credentials, which all seemed entirely in order.

“He got a lot of praise when I checked references,” Gjørv told Norwegian media. “He expressed an interest in the security policy situation in the north”. She described him as a quiet and slightly shy man who did not share much information about himself. Now Giammaria is being held by Norwegian security services, who say he’s a Russian illegal — a spy operating under deep cover, rather than posing as a diplomat. The investigative network Bellingcat has already alleged that he is actually Colonel Mikhail Mikhushin of the GRU, Russia’s foreign intelligence service. He has denied all the accusations against him.

Norwegian media followed the tracks of a Russian spy to Lithuania: it turned out that he studied in Vilnius

Quote
A Twitter photo from the Mykolas Romeri University shows one of the suspected spies with his colleague Marc Lanteigne, an associate professor at the Arctic University of Norway. It was the two of them who came from Tromsø and were supposed to represent the university.

The conference on hybrid threats took place on September 29 and 30 in Vilnius. The suspected spy was trained to find weaknesses in hybrid threats such as pipeline sabotage. The EU-Hybnet conference project is financed by the EU.

Among the main objectives of the conference was to find out what to do if the country’s gas pipelines are blown up or the entire electricity grid is paralyzed. The lawyer of the suspected spy, Thomas Hansen, told the daily “VG” that the suspect is in shock and does not understand the accusations against him.
73
DnD Central / Re: NATO nonsense

The Baltic States are in a category of their own, measured in percentage of military budget. But it makes perfect sense, considering this: 

12,000 Russian Troops Were Supposed To Defend Kaliningrad. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.

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The formation, deployment and destruction of the 11th Army Corps tell a story that’s bigger than the tragic tale of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The corps, sandwiched between two NATO countries along a strategic sea, was supposed to give Russian forces an advantage in a global war.

Instead, it became cannon fodder for a Ukrainian army that, on paper, was weaker than the Russian army was. Now Kaliningrad is all but defenseless, and the threat the oblast’s troops once posed to NATO … has evaporated.

The 11th Army Corps isn’t really a new formation. It’s a new grouping of existing formations under a single headquarters that itself answers to the Russian navy’s Baltic Fleet. The corps oversees a motorized division, a separate motorized regiment, artillery, rockets, air-defense troops and supporting units.
Before Russia widened its war in Ukraine starting in late February, there were no fewer than 12,000 Russian troops in Kaliningrad with around 100 T-72 tanks, a couple hundred BTR fighting vehicles, Msta-S howitzers and BM-27 and BM-30 rocket-launchers. The 11th Army Corps oversaw most of these forces.

Looming on the western border of Lithuania, one of the weakest NATO member states, the 11th Army Corps was the anvil for a possible Russian invasion of the former Soviet republics Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The hammer was the 18,000-strong ground force in western Russia on the eastern border of the Baltic states.

If this war lasts much longer the deterrence countermove to invasion/hybrid warfare in Baltic States would no longer be occupying Kaliningrad, but occupying St. Petersburg.


Speaking of the Russian western border, Finland, Sweden: No preconditions on nuclear weapons ahead of Nato membership

Makes sense in its context, but long-term the greatest risk of nuclear weapon use in Europe, even with Putin waving them around like now, is "accidental" use (i.e. misjudgement). Actual storage of nuclear weapons nearby Russia would increase that risk.
74
DnD Central / Re: The world in 2030
Looking up the original predictions, the link rot has spread widely.

It seems time to repost the reminder from the original thread. It had a lot about Muslims, Vivaldi is still running on beer, and this thread has taken an environmental turn. All fine, but it should be about the world starting 15 years 11 months and 3 days from now.

Opera forums are partially covered by the Web Archive, including this thread. The newer Vivaldi threads are not, so the Vivaldi 2030 thread seems gone. This one is still here of course.


Saw there a group I had completely forgotten about, with reason it seems, The Next Eleven.

Quote
The Next Eleven (known also by the numeronym N-11) are the eleven countries – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam

The ones that could be said to have done reasonably well are Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Korea and especially Vietnam. Rest middling or worse.
75
DnD Central / Re: The world in 2030
And to answer the burning question in topic start, we seem to have reached (at least temporarily) peak beer in 2013. Higher likelihood of less beer than more beer, but not definitive yet.