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Topic: Myr — is it a spice or a poison? (Read 19281 times)

Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

The Fremi Paradox is simple to state: Given the laws of the physical universe, where are the other intelligent life-forms? Why haven't we heard from them?
They should be quite numerous; and even our (presumed) primitive technology should be able to detect signals propagated by their earlier states of achievement…
Yet we've neither seen nor heard…anything.

A new approach to solving this riddle appears in the CERN Courier.

This is a commendable example of statistical reasoning gone awry. The size of the universe guarantees galaxies hosting countless solar systems which should host planets hospitable to life. Their number is staggeringly huge, and should make intelligent life fairly common.
Certainly, not rare.

But statistical reasoning always rests upon premises…

Hence, the paper referred to in the CERN Courier article which quantifies the frequency of Gamma Ray Bursts — on a scale of millions of years (and thence my cryptic post title: Myr is the common abbreviation of "million years") alters our understanding of the physical laws of the universe in a crucial way:
It reminds us of how much we don't know…and how much we take for granted.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #1 –
Of course there's intelligent life out there. We know they're intelligent because as soon as they heard our radio signals, they decided to leave us alone.
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #3 –
I waited a few hours… I should now be convinced that science is something no one here is interested in. (Likewise, mathematics.*)

Isn't the GRB frequency and its virulence well documented?
—————————————————————————————————————
* I heard my great-nephew tell his younger brother on the playground that 4, his sibling's age, was a non-awesome number! I mentioned to him (and others) that 4 was the FIRST square number… Quite awesome!
And 7, his age. was the only the 4th prime number… There's 4 again! As an ordinal.
Numeracy is a proclivity to be encouraged, I think.

It would please me, if these children can -eventually- keep up with me, when it comes to various computational memes… :)
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #4 –
From the CERN Courier,
Some scientists have proposed that a GRB could have been at the origin of the Ordovician extinction some 450 Myr ago, which wiped out 80% of the species on Earth.
Maybe it's time to another Ordovician thing.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #5 –
Oak, what do you want? Life on other planets has the same problem (as far as we're concerned) as the existence or lack thereof of God does. Namely, given present technology, how do you prove or disprove it?

We can conjecture and offer theories and wild guesses, even draw fanciful images of what life on X-23867 might look like, but without any proof that it does or does not exist--- all we're doing is science fiction, not actual science.

Maybe one day we'll have starships equipped with warp drive so we can go to other planets and see for ourselves--- actual science, seeing, listening, smelling, taking measurements and so on. Right now--- we look at "Star Trek" and imagine what it might be like. Close as we can get with present technology.
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #6 –
Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
Yet we've neither seen nor heard…anything.


A possible explanation from the Nebula Award-nominated short story, “They’re Made Out of Meat” by Terry Bisson:

"They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"Meat. They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"There's no doubt about it. We picked up several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, and probed them all the way through. They're completely meat."

"That's impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars?"

"They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don't come from them. The signals come from machines."

"So who made the machines? That's who we want to contact."

"They made the machines. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Meat made the machines."

"That's ridiculous. How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat."

"I'm not asking you, I'm telling you. These creatures are the only sentient race in that sector and they're made out of meat."

A little while later:

"They actually do talk, then. They use words, ideas, concepts?"

"Oh, yes. Except they do it with meat."

"I thought you just told me they used radio."

"They do, but what do you think is on the radio? Meat sounds. You know how when you slap or flap meat, it makes a noise? They talk by flapping their meat at each other. They can even sing by squirting air through their meat."

"Omigod. Singing meat. This is altogether too much. So what do you advise?"

"Officially or unofficially?"

"Both."

"Officially, we are required to contact, welcome and log in any and all sentient races or multibeings in this quadrant of the Universe, without prejudice, fear or favor. Unofficially, I advise that we erase the records and forget the whole thing."

"I was hoping you would say that."

"It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"

"I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say? 'Hello, meat. How's it going?'

Lol!!   :knight:  :cheers:
James J

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #7 –
That there mus be life out there is just another scientific theory so that makes it okay then.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #8 –
 ???

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #10 –
1. This Oakdale guy must be some sort of genius!
2. This is another thread that give folks an opportunity to poke at Mr. Howie.
3. Science has nothing to say about life, or the lack thereof, elsewhere.
4. Definitive statement! The center of the universe is in the pit of your stomach, every one of you!

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #11 –
Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
It reminds us of how much we don't know…and how much we take for granted.


Absolutely true, and that universe outside of our own galaxy was discovered less than 100 years ago.  Nevertheless, with the exponentially increasing pace of scientific and technological discoveries, people often expect miracles from science in an instant.  And when science can't produce answers fast enough to suit their liking, they criticize science for not really knowing anything.  Science knows plenty, but better than any other endeavor on earth, science knows for sure that it knows nothing for sure.  Science will soon answer the Fermi Paradox simply because there exists an answer to the Fermi Paradox.   :knight:  :cheers:
James J

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #13 –
Quote from: ersi on

Quote from: jseaton2311 on

Science will soon answer the Fermi Paradox simply because there exists an answer to the Fermi Paradox.   :knight:  :cheers:

Yep, that's the answer! Mystery solved! http://southpark.cc.com/clips/jd37s0/unfrozen-for-a-reason


Yer missin' da purnt thar Arsi. I ain't gots da ansa, but der gots tuh be a ansa cuz a da cauz an 'fect prinzple.  We done seen da 'fect, so da cauz gotsa be out der sumwherz.  De'll fine it, shur as ashootin'--ider dat er da hole primis be rong.   :knight:  :cheers:
James J

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #14 –
Quote from: jseaton2311 on
De'll fine it, shur as ashootin'

That's not guaranteed.

Although it's likely they exist in my opinion, there's no reason to assume the conditions to bring intelligence or sentience are as common as we'd like to believe. Given the vast distances involved it could take longer than the life expectancy of our race to be sure. :sherlock:     

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #15 –
Quote from: jseaton2311 on

Yer missin' da purnt thar Arsi. I ain't gots da ansa, but der gots tuh be a ansa cuz a da cauz an 'fect prinzple.  We done seen da 'fect, so da cauz gotsa be out der sumwherz.  De'll fine it, shur as ashootin'--ider dat er da hole primis be rong.   :knight:  :cheers:

Right. The premise is right and therefore science will find the answer (in 500 years). That's the point and there's no missing it.
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AoAJOF5GVQ[/video]

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #16 –
None of the data in the OP nor in the article seems new, although the article mentioned that it's a new study. Earlier studies that I can't be arsed to look up postulated a "inhabitall zone zone" for the galaxy. To close to the center and the radiation would likely wipe out all lifeforms. To far away, it's too cold.

I'm a little skeptical of those zones myself. I hear such things for the solar systems and some questions come to mine: what's the planet's atmosphere like? If it's thick enough even a planet distant from its sun could support life. What sort of life? Organism thrive on Earth with no oxygen, in superheated water by underwater thermal vents and other places that the laymen (and until recently the scientists themselves) though life was impossible. Another question would address the planet itself. Does it provide enough of a magnetosphere to deflect the GRBs. If that's the case, even intelligent life might exist in stellar neighborhoods where it shouldn't. Or even in planets with less them conditions we would consider than optimal, life might have adapted. The irony is that those lifeforms might rule out our solar system as capable of supporting life ;)

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #18 –
Quote from: ersi on
The premise is right and therefore science will find the answer (in 500 years).


Probably in less than one tenth of that time they will have a much better handle on the likelihood of intelligent life elsewhere.  Actually, the Fermi Paradox is a challenge to Drake's equation which is a scientific method to estimate the likelihood of intelligent life elsewhere.  Even Carl Sagan in recent times said that there should be literally millions of planets in our own galaxy that could harbor highly technological civilizations.  Drake's equation has even been taken to the extreme by religious intellectuals to show that the likelihood of life anywhere in the universe to be 1 in 1e+99 (10 to the 99th power), and since there are only 1e+23 planets in the universe--the likelihood of intelligent life anywhere is essentially zero and so god has to exist for us to be here.  It's been debunked of course (even by religious sorts), but it made the headlines of some major newspapers. 

Even if we found an exact replica of our solar system and planet Earth out there, a new model by Prof. Andrew Watson suggests the chances of intelligent life emerging would be low – less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years.  Therefore, we would need to find 10,000 exact Earth replicas to expect one to have intelligent life. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080416110124.htm  

Some astrophysicists now think we could be the only intelligent technological civilization in this galaxy, but since there are hundreds of billions of galaxies, there should still be plenty of intelligent life out there.  If it's as easy as finding a needle in a haystack--it will be detected soon enough.   :knight:  :cheers:
James J

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #19 –
Quote from: jseaton2311 on

Some astrophysicists now think we could be the only intelligent technological civilization in this galaxy, but since there are hundreds of billions of galaxies, there should still be plenty of intelligent life out there.  If it's as easy as finding a needle in a haystack--it will be detected soon enough.   :knight:  :cheers:

This kind of scientific speculation is as helpful as DnD speculation...yours and mine. Me? I'm scientifically guessing that life's out there, some of it intelligent, some of it like us.

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #20 –
Just a thought, a musing if you will, based on what I've read about it over the years.  Nothing more, nothing less.  I'm not asking that you agree or even care.   :knight:  :cheers:

Edit: Humans are too new on the scene to be considered entirely smart about all things.  We will get better, if e survive long enough.
James J

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #21 –
Maybe it's a good thing if we don't find them/they find us.

What if they're even more warlike than we are? What if they're traveling evangelists spreading the good news about their alien (to us) god? What if we're on the menu, and we really do taste like chicken?

Sometimes the less you know, the better you sleep at night.
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #22 –
Quote from: mjmsprt40 on
What if they're traveling evangelists spreading the good news about their alien (to us) god?


Just slam the door in their face like they were Jehovah Witnesses.   :knight:  :cheers:
James J

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #23 –
Quote from: jseaton2311 on
Probably in less than one tenth of that time they will have a much better handle on the likelihood of intelligent life elsewhere.

Probably, very much probably, there's no other intelligent life elsewhere.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Myr — is it a spice or a poison?

Reply #24 –
If life, especially intelligent life, is found on another planet will that mess up your religion?   :knight:  :cheers:
James J