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Messages - jax

27
DnD Central / Re: Today's Bad News
The "kid gloves" is because Austria hasn't done domestically what Fidesz has done.  Also Austria is a net contributor, unlike Hungary which is the second largest recipient, third largest per capita.

But if Hungary is suspended by Article 7 now that they are no longer protected by PiS (one can hope), Austria is likely to be the rear guard, or even one that could block a suspension.


28
DnD Central / Re: The Awesomesauce of Science
I see covid-19 as an inoculation. Dangerous and deadly on its own, there will be more pandemics. Some will be even more deadly, particularly in a future where they may be engineered. Among the ABCs, biological weapons were least likely. The As gave a big bang, the Cs were cheap to make, but the Bs were practically impossible to control. You may devastate your enemy, but then the disease spreads. Anthrax was popular in the Cold War days precisely because it was spreading so weakly.

That situation may change. There may come ways to control pathogens that a hostile actor, rightly or wrongly, would believe make them safe enough to use without risking own country or organisation. A bigger concern is when biotech develop enough that an Aum Shinrikyo type scenario is possible. Even the main pathway, people coming in close contact with an animal having come in contact with another, is more likely to happen with deforestation et al. For 35 years I have been spreading my life's motto: "Don't sneeze on a duck."

So what do we do when faced with a new deadly epidemic? What we always have done: We panic and die. For modern epidemic there is a third phase: We panic, the health system breaks down as doctors and nurses get sick, and then we die. Trying to make the health system not break down has been a priority for a century.

With exceptions of a few locales, we did reasonably well on the health system breakdown, but there are definitely room for improvements. Quite literally as many get sick simultaneously.

Which leads to the first, and probably most important lesson: We must be much better at scaling up fast. That's not just the lesson from covid, but from most other recent crises, like the energy crisis, and scaling up defences after invasion of Ukraine. JIT is an excellent advancement in production and logistics, but must be complemented with scaling capabilities.

There are two main companies in my home town. AstraZeneca shifted into vaccine business, not one of their product groups. Scania  shifted from making trucks into making PPEs (when the emergency was over, the logistics logjam for building trucks again began). The local science centre 3D-printed ventilator components for the local hospital, which was one of the designated covid hospitals in the region. All good cooperation, but late and ad hoc. If prepared for a scale-up, it is fully feasible.

Work from home, hazmat suits outdoors, and domestic services provided by machines will protect people for long enough.

Test and trace couldn't keep up with the pandemic, so in that sense it was a failure. But it was also a great success, this could not have been done before. It took a year to produce a working vaccine, which is fast, but it only took a month to produce and distribute a working test (in Berlin, based on data from China, with global collaboration over the Internet). Tracing would not have been feasible in any epidemic before, and was only partially practical in this, but could work well in the next. Public monitors like sewer surveillance also became practicable.

Disease models pre-covid were basically post-Spanish Flu ones. The potential for improvement with real-time data hasn't been fully realised. Perhaps next pandemic.
30
DnD Central / Re: The Awesomesauce of Science
Covid was a future shock, sense of wonder if you like. Not so much the pandemic itself, it was pretty run of the mill, but the reaction to it was very 21st century.

Back in the 1990s (maybe even the 80s) I read a bit on pandemic preparation, and it was bleak. Pandemics are pretty much inevitable. We are on overtime for a major new flu pandemic. And the Achilles heel of any pandemic, particularly an airborne one, is the health system. Doctors and nurses will be the first to get sick and die. And most fiction was just as bleak of course, based on some bioweapon killing much or most of humanity before the hero-doctor comes up with a cure, trying it on himself first of course. Meanwhile, on the outside there was panic and mayhem

This was not what happened. The first indication this was different came in China by February 2020. When the disease spread to cities like Beijing and Shanghaim instead of people killing each other on the street and raiding supermarkets, Hollywood style, people went home and they stayed home, ordering food delivery (left outside the door) to home, working from home.

When it came to Europe and North America, the pattern repeated. We are not living in the age of the Black Death anymore. A pandemic comes along, we just stay home until it's over. That was not all. The future shock continued. We had the digital fingerprint of the virus almost before it left Wuhan. We had working vaccines in mass production in a year. That is still not fast enough, but far faster than before, and this can be scaled up and sped up further. Ultimately we can find cures before the disease will have time to spread much (unless it did so by stealth). Furthermore we can detect virus particles in wastewater, and our epidemic models improve. We will get a fairly real time map of the pandemic in action.

As biohackers will eventually be able to design viruses, artificial viruses may one day matter, these developments matter a lot.
31
DnD Central / Re: The Awesomesauce of Science
Life under an aging sun, that's always nice.

The off-hand reference to climate disaster and nuclear war was poorly funded.

Run-away climate change can be extremely unpleasant, and deadly, indeed, but it would not be an extinction-level event.

Neither would a total nuclear war, now less than ever. We have many fewer, and smaller, nuclear weapons, though they are more precise. Militarily speaking, the outcome is similar, but for survival the odds are much better. We could expect the majority of the world's population to die, from climate and broken logistics. But killing a majority is extremely far from killing everyone.

And while a nuclear war would be fairly sudden, a climate collapse would be decades in the making. We could expect deaths in the millions, even into billions. But we could and would adapt. The cost would be immense, and the same goes for the losses. But again, far from "everyone dies". A man-made pandemic could be pretty nasty, but covid helped us prepare for future pandemics. We do find new dangers, and anyone could kill us, but we also get more resilient facing them. It is pretty certain we as a species will survive to the 3000, unless we are getting into transhumanism in one form or another.

Will humanity make it to year 3000 on Earth, and what will it be like?
32
DnD Central / Re: Money dumped in vast amounts for space?
Ironically, the Russians are the only ones who are welcome everywhere in space.

The US vetoed having the Chinese on the ISS, so they built their own treehouse in space, Tiangong 天宫 (Sky/Heaven Palace), where the Russians are welcome, and nobody else. Wikipedia has nice schematics.


Bit different from the Space Station 5 of 2001.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKBYB7qG4X0

Anyway, the Russians have talked about having a treehouse of their own, as has India. Neither seem likely to get off the ground soon, but my money would be on India. So when the Space Cow ends about 2030, there will be no obvious successor. There would be a mini-ISS around the Moon, and possibly some commercial moneybag tourist refreshing station. But nothing ISS+ size this side of 2050. 

Payload costs go down, so it is certainly feasible if someone has enough billions burning in their pockets.
33
DnD Central / Re: Today's Bad News
Coal is significantly worse than fossil gas in emissions, but also a lot worse for people's health.

35
DnD Central / Re: What's Going On In Russia?
Quote from: ersi on
I also take particular issue with the claim that the EU has made the Baltic countries safer. Not too long ago you casually suggested "Russia picks up Estonia, we pick up Königsberg."

Exactly. The Baltic States existed at the pleasure of whoever were the tsar of Russia (or not, when that tsar was Stalin). Without European friends they would not exist at all.

Estonia's total population is 1,321,365. That is the population of a suburb. The area is 45,339 km², that is half the size of a large farm, or the same area as Russia occupied in 2014. In early 2022 they grabbed three more Estonias, and then in the following year Ukraine has taken one Estonia back.

The best hope for Estonia would be Finland's Cold War strategy: arm to the hilt to make an invasion costly, while not aggravating Russia too much, and being useful. However Finland has four times the population of Estonia and almost eight times the land. As long as the tsar was friendly (at least not too belligerent), or couldn't be bothered Estonia should be fine. But he could show displeasure with Estonian policies by e.g. having a really big military exercise really close to the border.

In 2004 Estonia joined NATO and EU. That greatly improved the country's security and economic prospects. However it also gave the two organisations a serious headache. Joining them didn't in itself give Estonia any more weapons or soldiers, the protection was in the articles 5 and 42.7 respectively, promising that the others should consider coming to their aid if attacked.

NATO's strength and EU's reputation depends on fulfilling that promise, and Estonia became the Achilles heel. If Russia did attack, NATO wouldn't be able to stop them. Harass, certainly, NATO has air superiority even that far east. But Russia would get to the coast relatively speedily. NATO would have to make an "Operation Overlord"? Would NATO risk that, and a potential nuclear war, for a small, barely populated piece of land. A gambling tsar might just try.

In that context Estonia as a NATO and EU member might be more sovereign, able to make more decisions displeasing the tsar, but more at risk. Even an imperialistic Russia doesn't really need the Baltic States much, but could be a distraction if Russia was struggling with NATO elsewhere. Ukraine perhaps.


Quote from: jax on
A likely wargaming outcome before the Russian invasion would be a swap: Russia could likely take and hold Estonia and good chunks of Latvia and Lithuania, but lose Kaliningrad.

Now the Estonian position is stronger, and the Russian weaker. Putin or successor might worry less about getting angry glares if they were to "denazify" the Baltic States, their relationship with the West is as bad as it gets, but their position is weakened.

If will be far easier to reinforce Estonia from Finland than from Poland (especially with a Suwalki capture). Russia can't expect air superiority or naval superiority over the Baltic Sea, and Sweden is a good staging point.

I think the tripwire strategy would have been sufficient, given that Russia has far too much other to lose. But you are moving up rank from level 1 to level 2, maybe in time touching 3.

Level 0: Full Finlandisation
Level 1: An invasion would not be cost-effective
Level 2: An invasion would cost the invader more than the defender
Level 3: Outcome of an invasion would be unpredictable
Level 4: An invasion would not be feasible

But that distraction, gaining Estonia, would not be worth it if Russia lost Kaliningrad, a naval base they actually need(ed).

We are beyond that now. An invasion of Estonia would be risky on its own terms. They could, and probably would, try some form of hybrid warfare, but probably only with implausible deniability.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-govt-says-estonia-has-linked-baltic-cable-pipeline-damages-2023-10-23/
36
DnD Central / Re: Tripe about Ukraine
In a war of attrition the Ukrainian strategy seems quite effective (backseat driving of course). If the goal is to grind the Russians down, this is a faster way to do it. So is counter-attacks in Russia.

Sure, that strategy would be more efficient if Western weapons could be used for the purpose, but I can see that Western powers, particularly the US, would be squeamish about having their weaponry attacking inside Russia. Western weapons in Ukrainian territory (which of course include Crimea and parts of the Black Sea) is no problem.
37
DnD Central / Re: The twits on Twitter
As we should know, entropy happens. Twitter was on a downward trajectory before the takeover. While some may be able to change the course of a failing endeavour, others (like Musk and X) hasten it.

Forums and social media do not have long life expectancy. Usenet had a useful life span of about 20 years, before it was all Viagra spam and nazi propaganda. Even Facebook, the most extreme example of the network effect ever, has aged rapidly. 15 years ago it was all students, now it is all retirees.

Forums and social media are like ponds. Not only do they need to be replenished with new water to make up for water loss, they need the right amount of circulation not to go stagnant. The browser did that for the Opera forums, and news did that for midlife Twitter. You came to learn what was going on, stayed for the subcultures.

Now Twitter is on a death spiral. Will the same happen to Facebook? Quite possibly, but Meta still has the money to buy the Next Big Thing, as they did in the previous decade, such as Instagram and WhatsApp.
38
DnD Central / Re: Infrastructure
It's been that way since the 1970s, that's why making cities more liveable is slow progress. Almost every pedestrian street has been fought nail and tooth, including parts of the local business community. Then, in most cases, they realise afterwards that they make more money and get a better neighbourhood. In some cases the project is badly planned or premature. Then after a decade or so, a better or more timely project comes along, and it sticks.

Suburbia is never happy in this process. They are used to drive through the city, and leave nothing but exhaust and desolate parking spaces. But eventually suburbs too become more walkable. 
39
DnD Central / Re: I'm bemused: No one here wants to discuss the Gaza-Israel war
Quote from: Frenzie on
Quote from: OakdaleFTL on
What Hamas did last week should have sparked a robust debate about -oh, I don't know- the rules of war, the role of Antisemitism, and the resurgence of the barbarian.
Why should it? Nothing has changed. Hamas is still a bunch of terrorists and Netanyahu is still an idiot — heck, this underlines it.

Violent settler murderers in the West Bank are no longer contained. On the contrary they are encouraged and even in the government.
Sadistic islamist murderers in Gaza are no longer contained. On the contrary they are encouraged and even ruling Gaza and eventually West Bank.

This trajectory was no surprise to nobody. Enlightened self-interest was the basis for the peace plans in the 1990s. If they didn't turn what has now happened would happen, dooming the whole region to a generation of misery. This is now headed for a second generation of the same.

Netanyahu will fall, which should have been a cause for cheer, if there had been anyone to pick up the pieces. He has done more damage to Israel than any other person. Most likely scenario is the decline and fall of Israel, and of Palestine. 

And Lebanon, which has also done immense self-harm, but is cursed with Israel and Syria as neighbours, is in the worst state since the civil war.
40
DnD Central / Re: What's Going On In Russia?
This is simply not correct, both on the EU and the US.

For the latter, the question is how much the Putin faction really rules Congress and the GOP. I think this was a Pyrrhic victory and that their influence will weaken rather than increase. But we are in the middle of the election campaign 2024, and that can affect the outcome in unpredictable ways. That said, expect a lot of new shipments to Ukraine and other supports in new ways. Now, 2025 and beyond may be a different story. Voting matters.

The EU has made the Baltic states secure, Ukraine is a more challenging story. Facts are: European military aid is increasing month by month, year by year. Non-military aid as well, but that goes without saying. It's the military aid that is new territory for the EU. Mind you, even with recent re-armament, there is no way we can compete with the absolutely humongous US stockpiles of weaponry.

However, in a reversal of the old joke, while Europe cannot outrun the US, we don't have to. We only need to outrun the bear.

That is a worst case though. A US capitulation would prolong the war in Ukraine with years. In part because we are less capable, the European re-armament will take a decade on average, in part because it would give Kremlin the glimmer of hope they somehow could win a losing war just by stubbornness and disinformation.

The Republican party used to make hawkishness their brand. The old party would have portrayed Biden as a lily-livered peacenik. How things have changed.
43
DnD Central / Re: What's Going On In Russia?
Yes, there is only one way a change of government can happen in Russia now.

Introducing the Russian Presidential election 2024 (a year also the EU and US can vote for Pro-Putin candidates, or not):

Kremlin Handpicks Putin’s 2024 Election Opponents

Should be safe for now, but while the oligarchs are largely out of power, pitting the other groups he depend on against each other is getting harder.
44
Browsers & Technology / Re: The Hardware Thread
Some items will have near 100% recycling rates, and that includes EV batteries. (And incontrovertibly virtual & HPV > public transport > EVs > ICEVs both in emissions and environmental impact; leaving the Cybertrucks and F-150 Fat boys aside, there was a point where EVs vs ICEVs were a trade-off, we are past that point now.)

Everyone will return EV batteries unless that EV has been in a major accident or lost in a lake. There are second-life use cases and they are simply too expensive to throw away. Maybe in the far future EV batteries will be cheap enough to forget about, but by then reuse has hopefully been automated.

Consumer electronics is a different story. Here the financial incentive a near negligible. But this looks promising.

Framework announces Laptop 16 — and promises ‘holy grail’ of upgradable graphics



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx-Lggf2TXc 
45
DnD Central / Re: What's going on in Scandinavia, North Atlantic, Baltic States and Scotland?
It has been shaping the last five years or so, dramatically increased the last year, pretty significant changes to be expected the next five to ten years. After the Cold War a lull in the Naugties, and now this rearmament a.

More importantly the Nordic integration. Effectively the Nordic countries have been split into two theatres since WWII, the Arctic  theatre comprising Iceland, Denmark (and Greenland) and Norway, and the Baltic theatre comprising Sweden, Finland and pieces of Denmark. These two are now merging.

Nordic Air Force Takes Flight

(That merge is happening elsewhere in Europe too, like the slow merge of Dutch and German forces)
46
DnD Central / Re: Infrastructure
It is more a practical than political, it was going to happen anyway, but it will have consequences both practical and political. The lag for Latvia and Estonia will probably be 1–2 years.

Kaliningrad has an interconnector to Lithuania, so either they will have to change as well, add some conversion equipment or break contact. For this test Lithuania did the latter.



Estonian connections to Finland and Lithuanian to Sweden are HVDC, so there aren't synchronisation issues as such.

Finland, Sweden, Norway and half Denmark is in a different zone anyway.
48
DnD Central / Re: Artificial intelligent - Ideas producer
Problem with using generative adversarial networks to detect generative adversarial networks is that they are trained on each other. That arms race could lead to "AI" being as useless at detecting/evading "AI" as the rest of us. (GANs have their limits, question is where they are.)

If it is done in realtime, timestamping would have limited utility (but should prevent retroactive rewriting). And we couldn't stop a "hitherto undiscovered Shakespeare play" from appearing anyway.
50
DnD Central / Re: The comings and goings of the European Union
Quote from: ensbb3 on
Jax has always seen the EU farther east than actuality permits. Byzantine logic? I'm still waiting for North Africa to be mentioned. 😋

Morocco already applied for European Community in 1987, and was rejected. Of course, this was a different time and different rules, but it is highly unlikely they will send another application. Morocco benefits from a good and close relationship with EU, but integration is a few steps too far. It is our line in the sand so to speak. Besides Ukraine already fills the quota for big, poor and agricultural countries. They are about the same size, but unlike Ukraine, Morocco's population is growing, if not by a lot.

But we got the Union for the Mediterranean, basically Roman Empire 2.0 plus some barbarian states that were not a part the first time around. 

This is something French presidents fiddle around with when bored, but this Club Med, or some club like it, will gradually start to matter.




Quote from: ersi on

He has mentioned it repeatedly under the name Sahel. Such as here:

Quote from: jax on
...the EU is taking over the G5 Sahel as a European issue...
In my view, a lucid indication of lack of sense of geopolitical direction.

At best, focusing on Sahel would be a distraction. Its inevitable consequence would be increased ire of the people of the region, since it is France's national project, their colonial heritage. And therefore 100% hypocrisy. At worst, it would divert attention and resources from actual threats and opportunities, also from necessary tasks at hand in Europe, such as the Balkans, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus.


I would actually agree with that, the "ire" part that is. There is no win in this at the moment, except for preventing opportunity losses. And that is not done by force. Militarily the EU has withdrawn from Sahel, but Russians rush in where Europeans fear to thread. 

Africa is going to matter far more to Europe in the future than Russia will (Ukraine, Moldova, the remainder of the Balkans, and perhaps Georgia and Belarus will become part of Europe). It is Russia that is the distraction, not the Sahel.