I know very little about Russia and we have only one Russian poster, but others may be more knowledgeable.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Feurokulture.missouri.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F05%2Fvladimir-putin-riding-bear.jpg&hash=2bd65c8fda892efabd3e78c75b9abc58" rel="cached" data-hash="2bd65c8fda892efabd3e78c75b9abc58" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://eurokulture.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/vladimir-putin-riding-bear.jpg)
Photoshop will destroy humanity.
In reality, the bear was riding Putin. Shirtless, of course.
Happily it wasn't a selfie! :jester:
It isn't Photoshop. Putin was indeed riding the bear after wrestling it into submission. :yes:
And good for him. His poll support is phenomenal and it will be hard for any Head of State in the "Free" World to equate that. Oops nearly forgot my own country is in that league. Eat your hearts out ex-colonist associates! :yes:
What is happening in Russia, well Russia is looking at you!
Breached webcam and baby monitor site flagged by watchdogs (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30121159)
IT professionals demonstrate how hackers can access webcams (*) (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22689158)
(*) rest of title omitted to prevent anyone getting too excited.
What is happening in Russia, well Russia is looking at you!
Breached webcam and baby monitor site flagged by watchdogs (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30121159)
IT professionals demonstrate how hackers can access webcams (*) (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22689158)
(*) rest of title omitted to prevent anyone getting too excited.
My laptop came equipped with a webcam in the top part of the screen.
I come equipped with a roll of electrical tape.
Cut six inches off the roll of tape, place this over the camera lens--- viola! I just defeated the Russian hackers!
Now, of course the microphones are a little harder to defeat, but still not too difficult if you've been watching enough spy-guy movies.
Now, of course the microphones are a little harder to defeat
Eh, the same tape will do a pretty good job. Those things are low quality to start with.
What is happening in Russia, well Russia is looking at you!
IT professionals demonstrate how hackers can access webcams (*) (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22689158)
It's worse than you thought, and your computer doesn't even have to be on.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-19/hackers-can-steal-data-wirelessly-from-pcs-that-aren-t-even-online.html?cmpid=yhoo.inline (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-19/hackers-can-steal-data-wirelessly-from-pcs-that-aren-t-even-online.html?cmpid=yhoo.inline)
This is certainly not a new situation and was discovered well before some Russian daftie.
What is happening in Russia, well Russia is looking at you!
Breached webcam and baby monitor site flagged by watchdogs (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30121159)
IT professionals demonstrate how hackers can access webcams (*) (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22689158)
So Putin is watching your baby?
I agree, he should have something better to do and learn a lesson from the masters of our free & democratic world.
U.S. spy agencies mounted 231 offensive cyber-operations in 2011, documents show (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-spy-agencies-mounted-231-offensive-cyber-operations-in-2011-documents-show/2013/08/30/d090a6ae-119e-11e3-b4cb-fd7ce041d814_story.html?hpid=z2%3Cbr%20/%3E)
Vodafone-Linked Company Aided British Mass Surveillance (https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/11/20/vodafone-surveillance-gchq-snowden/)
XKeyscore: NSA tool collects 'nearly everything a user does on the internet' (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/31/nsa-top-secret-program-online-data)
Inside the secret world of America's top eavesdropping spies (http://theweek.com/article/index/226723/inside-the-secret-world-of-americas-super-sophisticated-eavesdropping-spies)
National Security - Inside the NSA's Ultra-Secret China Hacking Group (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/10/inside_the_nsa_s_ultra_secret_china_hacking_group?page=0,1)
How the NSA is still harvesting your online data (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/27/nsa-online-metadata-collection)
America beats everyone on th spying thing.
America beats everyone on th spying thing.
Apropos that, one wonders who might be responsible for "Regin".
[ur=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30145265]'Sophisticated' Regin spyware spotted[/url]
Note the countries that have reported Regin - makes one speculated.
But Austria? Why Austria?
I guess all are targeted but not nearly all report it.
Katsung - where are you when we need you?
I couldn't find anything at the site you mentioned...there was a mistake in the address...but did find this.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/23/technology/security/regin-malware-symantec (http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/23/technology/security/regin-malware-symantec)
I just found the one that you cited.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30145265
America beats everyone on th spying thing.
But we do it for the best of reasons, unlike...
(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSlruNuUbZ2OAkE_JIx_6VQfLS9TvXrqnWmx__WI-Wc2m17rc0U)
America beats everyone on th spying thing.
But we do it for the best of reasons, unlike...
(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSlruNuUbZ2OAkE_JIx_6VQfLS9TvXrqnWmx__WI-Wc2m17rc0U)
You do everything for the best reasons - spying, blackmailing, covert ops, wars, regime changes.
With any of your reasons the world becomes more safe and our gratitude is everlasting. :)
America beats everyone on th spying thing.
Really? They keep getting caught.
The ones you don't hear about are the ones to worry about :right:
You don't spy for the best of reasons at all krake. You do it because you are imperialist, arrogant think you are something and betray the idea of freedom, riths, privacy for emotional midnsets attitudes. It is either that or you lot are a bunch of mental under developed minds that have never grown up yet. You are top of the list when it comes to spying on all your own people and everywhere else and the trtie answer is always "security." Long moons ago I commented you have more spy agencies than the Nzis and an awful lot more than the Russians . Your constant rubbish about Russia over there is because you grew up in the days of the Cold War and cannot get away from the childish mind. Neither can you do much when there is a country on the planet you cannot control like freaks.
I don't believe in space aliens but if they did exist I do trust they land in the good ole land of the free and home of the brave (yawn). The time before WW2 when the Orson Welles radio play told there was an invasion caused mayhem and only proved what I claim that as a race there is a kindergarten mindset and easy to panic! When i want a laugh and have seen most comedy on television, etc I watch for news from the ex-colonies. Boy that is entertainment! :devil:
The time before WW2 when the Orson Welles radio play told there was an invasion caused mayhem and only proved what I claim that as a race there is a kindergarten mindset and easy to panic!
Which never happened (http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/history/2013/10/orson_welles_war_of_the_worlds_panic_myth_the_infamous_radio_broadcast_did.html). He should have tried it in Glasgow though :right:
Rj will believe anything that makes Americans look stupid, violent or insane. And I believe that all Scotsmen look like this.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.streetswing.com%2Fhistmain%2Fhistitl%2F1hghflng1.jpg&hash=472e5c5a90d185f3298a14f46e55b10d" rel="cached" data-hash="472e5c5a90d185f3298a14f46e55b10d" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://www.streetswing.com/histmain/histitl/1hghflng1.jpg)
rj will also believe that anyone not from Glasgow is an American.
America beats everyone on th spying thing.
Apropos that, one wonders who might be responsible for "Regin".
'Sophisticated' Regin spyware spotted (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30145265)
Note the countries that have reported Regin - makes one speculated.
But Austria? Why Austria?
Shouldn't this post about Regin spyware be moved into the "What's Going on in the Americas? (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=230.0)" thread?
"What's going on in the UK and Crown Dependencies? (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=157.0)" would be also a right place for this topic.
Secret Malware in European Union Attack Linked to U.S. and British Intelligence (https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/11/24/secret-regin-malware-belgacom-nsa-gchq/)
Shows the ignorance Macallan of your own racial characteristics laddie. You folk get excited and emotional at the least wee thing due to your minds brained by the system. The East Coast did go bananas so either you are being deliberately evasive or there is ignorance. Cities had long traffic jams, trains and buses full of people scared out their wits and fleeing. Here the stiff upper lip would have applied and maturity which your country lacks. Indeed Glasgow being a down to earth and gritty city they would have been first to take anyone on!
It is always the same on national traits. You will believe anything and run about like ants emotionally. Orson was very clever knowing this hence where he did the programme. Tough sonny you lost it. :(
It is always the same on national traits. You will believe anything and run about like ants emotionally. Orson was very clever knowing this hence where he did the programme. Tough sonny you lost it. :(
An entire nation possesses the same "traits"? That being the case, you'll have to show us a short video of you doing a jig.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jZpsPv6TjSE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jZpsPv6TjSE)
It is always the same on national traits. You will believe anything and run about like ants emotionally. Orson was very clever knowing this hence where he did the programme. Tough sonny you lost it. :(
An entire nation possesses the same "traits"? That being the case, you'll have to show us a short video of you doing a jig.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jZpsPv6TjSE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jZpsPv6TjSE)
:lol: :lol: :lol:
And they say the Scots have no sense of humour!
Shows the ignorance Macallan of your own racial characteristics laddie.
So, Great Oracle of Glasgow, what exactly are my 'own racial characteristics'? :)
You act as if you are living in the land of Moses and is a wonderful example to the world. And anyway, America is the world champion at spying on telephones, computers, tyexts and anything communicative. So at least there is one success based on fact rather than the ussual bloated self-praising propaganda. All countries do spying but you are very unique. just look at how many spy organisations you have in reality. Then you added another several years back "Homeland Security." Why the devil does a nation need so many? Either there is a deep rooted jingoist and emotional juvenile minded thing or there are an awful lot of flaws in the system. Either way you are still top of the pile. The hard fact is that the other favourite word (apart from that damn "awesome" never far away) is "security. The population has constantly been hit with this as a government excuse and i am sure many ex-colonists of the more broad thinking are tired of it. The result of the recent national elections show an awful low poll so I find that encouraging for you all but there again a bit frustrating as the Hill doesn't really run the country it is the money baron set.
It might be a break to persecute Russia but the lack of the people being treated right is more important than getting angry that there is a country you cannot control. You miss the Cold War so find any excuse to keep it sluttering.
You act as if you are living in the land of Moses and is a wonderful example to the world. And anyway, America is the world champion at spying on telephones, computers, tyexts and anything communicative.
1. What gave you the idea that I'm american? Again? :rolleyes:
2. GCHQ. Is your memory really that flaky or are you just being selective?
Shows the ignorance Macallan of your own racial characteristics laddie. You folk get excited and emotional at the least wee thing due to your minds brained by the system.
Look who's throwing another fit :right:
The East Coast did go bananas so either you are being deliberately evasive or there is ignorance. Cities had long traffic jams, trains and buses full of people scared out their wits and fleeing.
Again. None of this happened, no matter how much you want it to be true. The only panic that happened that day happened in a bunch of newspapers trying to discredit their new competition.
Here the stiff upper lip would have applied and maturity which your country lacks.
My country? :right:
Indeed Glasgow being a down to earth and gritty city they would have been first to take anyone on!
You're indeed a fine example of maturity and critical thinking :left:
It is always the same on national traits. You will believe anything and run about like ants emotionally.
Weapon grade projection. The only one here who uncritically believes some nonsense story is you.
He believes in the Tooth Fairy.
He thinks it is V. Putin.
V. Putin? Check her out...she's quite the cutie.
https://www.facebook.com/veronica.putin (https://www.facebook.com/veronica.putin)
(https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/33736_101912143211691_356931_n.jpg?oh=2c562737039516631f6c95b12a8af131&oe=550FFC3F)
"The Land of Moses"?
Well, Charleton Heston did play Moses in a movie, so I suppose that might qualify.
V. Putin? Check her out...she's quite the cutie.
https://www.facebook.com/veronica.putin (https://www.facebook.com/veronica.putin)
(https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/33736_101912143211691_356931_n.jpg?oh=2c562737039516631f6c95b12a8af131&oe=550FFC3F)
I was referring to Vladimir, the Impaler.
V. Putin? Check her out...she's quite the cutie.
https://www.facebook.com/veronica.putin (https://www.facebook.com/veronica.putin)
(https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/33736_101912143211691_356931_n.jpg?oh=2c562737039516631f6c95b12a8af131&oe=550FFC3F)
I was referring to Vlad, the celebrated Impaler.
I knew that! :faint:
Furthermore, there's more than one kind of calculus.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.colgateprofessional.com%2FProfessional%2Fv1%2Fen%2Fus%2Flocale-assets%2Fimg%2Fthumbnails%2FPatientEd-SubgingivalCalculus-Full.jpg&hash=9e1d5a08a7847db23856374268ea20e5" rel="cached" data-hash="9e1d5a08a7847db23856374268ea20e5" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://www.colgateprofessional.com/Professional/v1/en/us/locale-assets/img/thumbnails/PatientEd-SubgingivalCalculus-Full.jpg)
Macallan and tt92 being routinely so up themselves with their egotism and haughtiness are typical of a wide constituency so can be taken as such rather than anything intelligent or indepth. I could react by waving them as such but that would slip me to much towards their self-importance and would-be know all stance. :P
Macallan and tt92 being routinely so up themselves with their egotism and haughtiness are typical of a wide constituency so can be taken as such rather than anything intelligent or indepth.
From the person who wouldn't know intelligence if it punched him in the face.
Very mature & grown up response to being wrong on everything.
I could react by waving them as such but that would slip me to much towards their self-importance and would-be know all stance. :P
Translation: Wah! Meanies! Wah!
Boys, boys! A little civility.
You have been confrontational yourself over the years jimbro so no high ground please you are no innocnet cookie. Meanwhile back at the ranch.
Time after time in the old Opera Forum Macallan and the other boy have been so highly self opinionated and being as I put it simply so far up themselves in their minds to scoff or snipe at me is as obvious as it comes. That Macallan has continued his self-importance in this Forum and is a "Moderator" (pause for a laugh) it kind of shows him up. If he wants to be in the wrestling game he should NOT be a Moderator the way he comes across here. He wants his cake and eat it so how can he moderate when he does the very thing he accuses others of?? In view of this my point of view is made more obvious. Anyone who doesn't fit in his loop of trying to be as clever as he thinks he is and does not waffle on but direct is a mental alien. In practical terms he has always, always tried to avoid saying where he is from although I kind of guessed that one a while back.Again it proves he is a chicken and not that brave or as confident as he poorly tries to portray.
Considering my public history where I come from and the public debates I have been in with well known characters he is an amateur who can hide on a forum but in real life probably a bit of a nerd! :P :hat: :yes: Oh damn I should have been in hindsight a little more concerned for the poor young lad.
who can hide on a forum but in real life probably a bit of a nerd!
But probably none of us would be here if we weren't :left:
He wants his cake and eat it so how can he moderate when he does the very thing he accuses others of??
There goes another irony meter :rolleyes:
In view of this my point of view is made more obvious. Anyone who doesn't fit in his loop of trying to be as clever as he thinks he is and does not waffle on but direct is a mental alien.
Maybe you should just spend a few seconds to fact check your little stories instead of throwing tantrums when people tell you they're bullshit :right:
In practical terms he has always, always tried to avoid saying where he is from although I kind of guessed that one a while back.Again it proves he is a chicken and not that brave or as confident as he poorly tries to portray.
In practice I told even you several times, not my fault if your attention span would embarrass a goldfish. Not that where I live or grew up is in any way relevant to anything here other than your idiotic attempts on insulting me.
Yes, I mean
idiotic.
That little paragraph of yours about 'racial characteristics' americans supposedly share is nothing short of idiotic, for reasons obvious to anyone with half a brain.
Oh it fine suits you to allege I have tantrums when i don't. Having a wide experience of life and the judicial system you don't know me at all. You do lie to accuse me of things but when you act somewhat superior and lord it you outdo me. In the way you act and as a supposed Administrator you are something else. Indeed you are so much haughty in regarding yourself in a natural intellectual and above it syndrome surely that shows the standard here when a Mod gets involved in the challenging stuff the way you do. I delayed when Opera went to coming here and I realise in hindsight I was right. It is a Forum with a tight small group and the position you hold makes it a mockery. Small wonder there are those brighter ones who don't come on very often. It is no small wonder your country has become a mess with so many Macallan hypocrites around and that stuff about repeated telling me where you were from?? By all means you can challenge me on anything but as Mod you are a joke and and shouldn't be in that position if you want to get into sword play. Do "have a nice day" and be "awesome. :hat: :headbang:
You do lie to accuse me of things but when you act somewhat superior and lord it you outdo me.
Care to back up your silly accusations? I can back up every single one of mine, I doubt you even understand the concept:rolleyes:
In the way you act and as a supposed Administrator you are something else.
Like what? :rolleyes:
When, where and how did I 'act and as a supposed Administrator'? :rolleyes:
Indeed you are so much haughty in regarding yourself in a natural intellectual and above it syndrome surely that shows the standard here when a Mod gets involved in the challenging stuff the way you do.
Can you repeat that in non-gibberish? :rolleyes:
I delayed when Opera went to coming here and I realise in hindsight I was right. It is a Forum with a tight small group and the position you hold makes it a mockery.
I'm
so sorry for telling you that your bullshit story is still bullshit. It's still bullshit though.
Small wonder there are those brighter ones who don't come on very often. It is no small wonder your country has become a mess with so many Macallan hypocrites around and that stuff about repeated telling me where you were from??
Again, what in Cthulhu's name has 'my country' to do with anything whatsoever?
By all means you can challenge me on anything but as Mod you are a joke and and shouldn't be in that position if you want to get into sword play.
Again, how is that in any way relevant? Did you actually read, let alone understand anything I wrote in the previous post? :rolleyes:
who can hide on a forum but in real life probably a bit of a nerd!
But probably none of us would be here if we weren't :left:
Somebody tell him that Vin Diesel is a hardcore nerd :right:
It's even more hip to be square than when Huey Lewis sang about it. Almost everybody is some kind of geek now :left:
Dear oh dear Macallan. You are so self-opinionated about your intelligence and for someone trying to show how normal you prove otherwise. You just love playing on words and getting sniffy. Maybe those around you are dumbells so can get away with much of it! In real life it does show a very one word description of yourself.. Snob.
On the thread theme rather than paying homage to the superciliousness of a mod, Russia will eventually weather the storm. It will remain a strongly independent nation that the US and it's hacks will not be able to dominate. More power to it's elbow as the West is so arrogant and wants to control everyone.
Yes, Howie because America sent unmarked troops into another country's territory, had a referendum with results that are so loopsided that was laughable, and annexed the other country's territory, after pulling the same stunt in a third country. Oh wait, that was Russia. So are you suggesting that America should make off with Canada's, then Mexico's territory (after a sham election, of course) in order to "remain a strongly independent nation ."
I'll be many people in California have family in Baja California and many people in the Washington State have family in British Columbia, so we can reunited families :yes: Indeed, some parts of the Canada were once parts of the US, so we get to have a historical claim to them! :yes: :knight:
Yes, Howie because America sent unmarked troops into another country's territory, had a referendum with results that are so loopsided that was laughable, and annexed the other country's territory, after pulling the same stunt in a third country. Oh wait, that was Russia. So are you suggesting that America should make off with Canada's, then Mexico's territory (after a sham election, of course) in order to "remain a strongly independent nation ."
I'll be many people in California have family in Baja California and many people in the Washington State have family in British Columbia, so we can reunited families :yes: Indeed, some parts of the Canada were once parts of the US, so we get to have a historical claim to them! :yes: :knight:
Hmmm.... I dunno, do you really think we might want to try that again? Last time we tried to grab Canadian land (the War of 1812) it came to a draw and we ended up with the borders we have today. Further, Canada and the US are on good terms with each other at the moment, and if things get dicey with an overseas adversary it's good to have a friend protecting your back.
Only ISIS hates Canada.
There are times when you talk sense Sanguinemoon then you drift into the loopy side of America brainwashing nonsense. May I remind you that it was the people IN Crimea that decided on a Referendum because they had once been part of Russia during Soviet times. For some odd reason the USSR moved it into the the local Soviet Republic of Ukraine. Do you understand that simplicity?? Why do you think most of the population spoke Russian and did not want moved to Ukraine in the first damn place? There are Russian military who have been stationed in Ukraine for ages as it was brokered in a money agreement and Russia paid much for the provilige . The two south eastern provinces again have Russia as the number one language and again were part of Russia long before the USSR time. in fact they were part of Imperial Russia and the Tsar. Show either how much you don't know or like Republicans get brained into anything your controllers tell you - or maybe you don't want to know.
To try and show Russia as outdoing America on world imperialism is so damn laughable it makes you look a fool.What country has hundreds of bases across the globe, spends have the planet's military costs, has a long history of interference and political intrigue against countries? It isn't Russia and since WW2 you lot have been destroying countries that you cannot control or have your corporates make a fortune while so many Americans starve, homeless and dying due to no insurance.
You are a brilliant example of those over the water who if they cannot control a country will have it invaded and damaged. It is still the Cold war mentality that has never drifted from the US and must remind you that because you have a nation you cannot control espeically for making money you will snipe it. The Crimea referendum was properly run and you cannot take that. Those 2 provinces were kept out of the Kiev loop and serve to lose them. Your political bosses and system is the No 1 bad boy in the worl and Russia is most defitnitely not in the same league as your imperialism, arrogance, and hypocrisy.
So are you suggesting that America should make off with Canada's, then Mexico's territory (after a sham election, of course) in order to "remain a strongly independent nation ."
It would substantially shorten the southern border so it would save money on border security :left:
And it would eliminate the old border so I'm sure the drug lords and their minions will happily vote for joining the US :right:
So are you suggesting that America should make off with Canada's, then Mexico's territory (after a sham election, of course) in order to "remain a strongly independent nation ."
It would substantially shorten the southern border so it would save money on border security :left:
And it would eliminate the old border so I'm sure the drug lords and their minions will happily vote for joining the US :right:
It would make crossing the border easier, there being no big problems going from one state to another.
However, I've long thought that we ought to absorb Mexico and Canada, and turn them into states. The Mexican drug problem would be easier to deal with. Have to admit, though, that the largest part of the Mexican drug problem has to do with US drug users, damn their hides!
The Crimea referendum was properly run and you cannot take that.
Show me an election in which 97% of voters agree on anything and I'll show you a big steaming pile of horseshite, Howie.
Oh, you want more? Okay, then. Not a problem. :yes:
http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/crimea-referendum-34-percent-not-97-percent-says-former-russian-government-adviser/
Crimea’s near-unanimous referendum to join the Russian Federation was a “grossly rigged” falsification of a “cynically distorted” populace whose vote was closer to 34 percent, according to former economic policy adviser to the Russia Government Andrey Illarionov.
Illarionov, who is currently a senior fellow at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity in Washington, DC, recently published on his blog a study of polling done in Crimea over the past three years, in which Illarionov shows support for joining Russia has varied between 23 and 41 percent since 2011, and concludes that “[a]t a minimum, two-thirds of the Crimea did not vote for the joining of Crimea to Putin’s Russia.”
.....
Illarionov’s study referenced several opinion polls conducted by the United Nations, Democratic Initiatives’ Ilka Kucheriv, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, Research & Branding Group, International Republic Institute, and Gallup.
According to Nezavsimaya Gazeta’s Tatyana Ivzhenko in Moscow, who analyzed poll results nine months ago, Russia had been “losing influence on Crimean residents.” This is a result, Paul Goble, American analyst and former adviser to Secretary of State James Baker on Soviet nationality issues and Baltic affairs, thinks might have influenced Putin’s decision to move into Crimea quickly.
Further recall what I told you before, that given the changing demographic in Crimea, ethnic Russians might not been a majority anymore (although the media reported as such, based on old 2001 data showing 58%, but that percentage had been declining sharply in recent decades.) The Tatars, at 12.1 percent of the population as of 2001 (again, probably higher now) wanted nothing to do with Russia, due to past treatment at the hands of the USSR. Those folks alone serve as evidence that the 97% in favor of joining Russia is a lie.
But what else do you lament? Oh yes, that Crimea didn't want to join the Ukrainian SSR in the first place? Well, expel the most opposed to being part of the Russian SSR and replace them with Russians and you can make that true :yes:
Getting desperate there Sanguinemoon.
The Guardian a lefty, "liberal" paper in steep decline is as dependable as me saying I support the Vatican.
International observers are better than a media that is bias. You still ignore the matter of majority being Russia and were part of the USSR as I explained simply as you are an ex-colonist Why is okay for the US to be fine with such steps in places it is dong financial business or wants a military base? They voted properly to get back to where they didn't want to leave and as the Ukraine is in financial meltdown and cannot even pay it's pensioners their payments older folk are better off in their original homeland with bigger pensions.
You are such a wonderful example of the brain dead who just accept what the media say and government influence. If a country cannot be controlled by the US it is automatically a bad place which is laughable the way America runs itself! Russia did help Ukraine financially but your mentality cannot take that in and you lot thought when Communism was overthrown you were in with a shout to make money as you always like to do. That didn't happen so out comes the anti-Russian propaganda. You never think widely but just follow the DC line without question. As you were all brained as you grew up about the Cold War and the USSR it is not surprising the way you are. Ukraine does not need Russia to bring it down it is crumbling all by itself even though Moscow offered help. Your country unfortunately thinks it is somehow untouchable and the world's beacon, inspiration and if anyone dares challenge that falseness there is hell to be dished out. Only this time you will not get away with it which your politicians and propagandists are angry about.
Russia has no wish to destroy Ukraine or anything near it and suggestion of that is a kindergarten mind approach (you have confirmed that one!). It would be nice if you lot controlled your overbearing nationalism in a patriotic disguise and left others alone. That you lot are constantly creeping up to the Russian territory with that waste of time and out of date NATO club speaks much. You also choose to completely ignore th background of the Ukraine President the wide corruption the SS imitators who went to fight alongside the Ukraine Army and much else as such does not fit in with the rubbish that influences you. The belligerence is coming from DC not Moscow and I am perfectly glad that there is a country that will not bow the knee to an over the top view of it's own importance and devilish stances.
You, meaning your country should spend more time trying to sort out you own widespread failings, disasters, economics, debt, poor, starving and homeless. That would be in fact far more principled than the insidious stance on the world and Russia.
That you lot are constantly creeping up to the Russian territory with that waste of time and out of date NATO club speaks much.
While Putin and men like him are in power there, NATO is not out of date. How many times does the Putin need to pull the same shit. In Georgia, now Crimea. What's next? Estonia? Latvia, Lithuania perhaps? Not for complete destruction, but to find some area with a Russian majority and lay claim to it.
If you care to learn something for a change, read this (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/12/08/farewell-putin/). Quickly deteriorating economic conditions.
First thing's first, though.
When history evaluates and casts judgment on the current crisis between Russia and the West, one that will inevitably end with Vladimir Putin leaving the stage, it might find it difficult to ascribe blame and responsibility.
Is the main culprit Putin himself, who determined that the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century; who admires Stalin and reinstated the Soviet national anthem with different lyrics; the same Putin who, in the VOLDAI conference in September 2013, said that: The integration of the former Soviet Union into a single geopolitical entity is a key priority for Russia.
Get his goal yet?
Putin’s misguided premise is that the West is politically weak and that the U.S. and President Obama lack resolve and determination and thus will tolerate whatever Russia chooses to do. Much in the same way that Hitler, his army at 50% capacity and preparedness, did not expect that Britain and France would declare war in response to Germany’s invasion of Poland, Putin was not ready for the U.S. and German-led Western decision to impose heavy sanctions. At a time when the Russian military is undergoing a major modernization phase, the French decision to suspend the delivery of a Mistral-class helicopter carrier, already manned by a training contingent of 400 Russian naval personnel, must have come as a huge surprise to Putin.
To be fair to Putin, Republicans in US underestimated Obama as well. So surprise since they both live in the past.
The scale and swiftness of economic deterioration indicates the wide gap between how Putin views Russia, through the rosy-pink lens of his cheerleading choir, and reality: The Russian stock market has collapsed, the ruble’s dramatic devaluation, massive capital flight (at least $120 billion this year alone), galloping inflation that is getting out of control, and a real economy that is dissolving, all may revert Russia to the bleak 1990’s images.
Without a man in charge that longs for the old USSR, Russia would be getting capital investments, not losing them. Russian industrialist and western capitalists alike would be building Russia into a bona fida advanced economy. But no, Putin had to get Crimea and supply rebels for civil war in Ukraine. Oh dear, I did mention western capitalists, huh? I'm sure you consider that a crime, too.
All these signs point to a crumbling Russian economy, perhaps on the verge of collapse because of US-imposed economic sanctions coupled with plunging commodities prices, especially oil. It is no surprise, then, that leading companies such as Rosneft appeal for government assistance, meaning digging into the country’s foreign currency reserves.
The article goes on to mention empty shore shelves. Further, you like mentioning Ukraine not being able to pay its gas bill. Seems Russia can't meet its foreign debt either.
Oh yes, you like to accuse Kiev of being run by neo-NAZIs.
Putin recently accused the US of provoking conflict and instigating a coup d’etat that replaced the regime in Ukraine. In the fall, Putin had the audacity to justify the Nazi-Soviet pact—the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement (the invasion of Poland and division of its territory between Germany and the USSR)—and is actively assisting and funding far-right and neo-Nazi groups in Europe.
I don't who you think Putin is, Howie. I do recommend you dispense with any romantic notions of him being a champion of liberty standing up to the supposedly evil West.
It is America that stand up for liberty, freedoms and so on Sanguinemoon and your lot have an awful lot of stuff to apologise for. Yous have used NATO to creep up on Russia and instead accuse them the other way round. Your country always contradicts all those lofty principles time after time. It is not Russia that wants to dominate the world, corrupt governments and if they do no subscribe to your system then heaven help them. Why do you need over 400 bases around the globe? Why ostracise those who don't give in to your corporate greed side? Time after time you have created wars since WW2 and usually left a mess behind. The way America is tun politically is a farce and millions are suffering for it inside the country yet you fall into the usual rubbish when somewhere else is politically or militarily swiped. You are so damn taken in by all the flag waving mentality over there. You have a romantic view of your land which is laughable and have the nerve of accusing me following that on Russia! Because Russia will not give in to your arrogance and total hypocrisy as a country that makes them the bad guys. Well good luck to Putin because he will not give in to the machinations of you morally and politically corrupt lot lot.
Nobody wants to "dominate the world." Not the US, not Russia, not Scotland, Irn Bru and all other beverages included.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.agbarr.co.uk%2Fimages%2FIrn_Bru_500ml_TN.jpg&hash=b13ef242a3aa334ee30b5f98349db79c" rel="cached" data-hash="b13ef242a3aa334ee30b5f98349db79c" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://www.agbarr.co.uk/images/Irn_Bru_500ml_TN.jpg)
But what else do you lament? Oh yes, that Crimea didn't want to join the Ukrainian SSR in the first place?
Somehow I doubt there was a vote on the issue. I also doubt that it made any difference to the people living there at the time.
What still gets me about all those 'historical' arguments about Crimea being part of Ukraine or not - most of the member states of the Soviet Union were creatures of the Soviet Union, more or less based on ethnic boundaries. When was the last time there was an independent Ukraine before the Soviet Union came along and created the Ukrainian SSR?
Answer: you'll have to go back to at least before the Mongolian invasion. And back then they didn't control Crimea either - the Byzantine Empire and some allied nomads did.
Eh jimbro? War after war, half the world's military expenditure (plus literally hundreds of miltary bases) - widespread torturing,- picking on places that do not succumb militarily or commercially ? How do you figure that one out?? You might not agree with all that but to think it can be dismissed is definitely odd!
O the Crimea the people there never wanted to be in Ukraine as I stated and those in the two south eastern provinces were part of the traditional Tsarist Empire something I also said. Anyway the referendum was created locally and not because Moscow ordered it and those that try to dismiss what was done properly are daft. Russia has made it clear that they do not want to annex those 2 areas but the mind closed on thes forum are beyond simplicity. It annoys the US Empire that there is somewhere it cannot dominate like elsewhere and instead of accepting that sensibly goes out on a negative stance over Russia. Too many in the ex-colonies a having been brought up with a Cold war thinking find it hard to adapt but equally there are those in America who do see the crassness of political policy re Russia. It is a proud and independent nation will continue to be so live with it.
Nobody wants to "dominate the world." Not the US, not Russia, not Scotland, Irn Bru and all other beverages included.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.agbarr.co.uk%2Fimages%2FIrn_Bru_500ml_TN.jpg&hash=b13ef242a3aa334ee30b5f98349db79c" rel="cached" data-hash="b13ef242a3aa334ee30b5f98349db79c" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://www.agbarr.co.uk/images/Irn_Bru_500ml_TN.jpg)
Are you suggesting that the Bond films are based on a flawed premise?
Blond films? Which blond films?
You must be living in the Outback tt92 throwing in that stuff about the US not wanting to control the world. It spends half the globe's military budget has hundreds of bases gets miffed it any country does not submit to it's corporate interests and profits. If you do then heaven help you as trade will be blocked, government destabilised or an excuse to invade. It creates more terrorism than anyone and in fact has in the past supported terrorists if it suited. Face facts.
I'm sorry I threw in that stuff about not wanting to control the world.
Wait a moment! I didn't!
It wasn't me!
You cretin. You can't write, you can't even read.
Stick to your knitting.
OK, I admit it. I want to control the world. But, you know how it is.
1. You just can't get good evil henchmen these days. Back in the days of Goldfinger, he had a couple of henchmen that could get the job done. These days-- not so much.
2. That #@%%^^ 007 always cuts in, takes my beautiful temptress girlfriend, and even seems able to persuade my feline companion to turn.
3. Underground hideaways aren't as cheap as they used to be.
4. Ditto the high-tech equipment. Used to be, you could skate by on 1 gigabyte hard-drives, maybe half that in RAM and everything vital could be stored on a couple of floppies. No more, now if you want a decent Evil Mastermind set-up you have to spring for a couple of Cray computers-- and that's just entry level.
5. I'll need a more impressive Evil Mastermind vehicle. Face it, a beat-up 1998 Chevy van won't even make it for selling candy to unsuspecting kids, much less trying to take over the world in it.
Well, I and my evil henchman-- yes, at the moment there's just one-- will have to work on it. Mwa-hahahaha!
Blond films? Which blond films?
I think it was the one in which he bedded the beautiful woman :idea:
Well she was lucky to get Bond and not the CIA.
The Ruble plummets, and the central bank jacked up their equivalent to the Prime Rate to 17%. source (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/16/news/economy/russia-ruble-collapse-options/index.html) It looks like a downward spiral for the Russian economy. The article briefly touches on way such a high interest rate damages the economy.
Another possible measure:
Restrict the flow of cash: Russian authorities could introduce capital controls -- limits on how individuals and companies can spend and move their cash.
That looks to be severely damaging to the economy as well.
Well everything is not that rosy in the land of the free is it/ Unemployment still a problem a million annually losing homes, 40 million on food stamps and the lower paid really crawking as the rich get richer.
A great proportion of Russia's GDP is oil and with the price so crashingly low has made big inroads but mind you there are industrial companies murmuring about losing their trade with Russia and farm goods another area. None of this effects America of course it is Europe that bends the knee to Washington. Certainly the Russian economy is suffering but they are a proud people and went through this back in the 1990's and survived. More recently China and Russia continue to trade including Russian oil so they have stuck two fingers up at the stupid ban on Russia. The more the West does the more Russians support their President and his rating is twice what Americans support in their man. So Russia will continue to be independent and German industry and farming goods across Europe will continue to suffer.
I'm afraid so, Mike. Since Howie'a opinion is
so important, we need to do what he approves of. In this case, that would be taking another country'a territory after a bogus election. The reasons against it that you mentioned are valid, but we have to please Howie.
I'm afraid so, Mike. Since Howie'a opinion is
so important, we need to do what he approves of. In this case, that would be taking another country'a territory after a bogus election. The reasons against it that you mentioned are valid, but we have to please Howie.
Hmmm.... I wonder what we can scrape together for some Evil Mastermind equipment. Taking over another country after staging a bogus election isn't as easy as it looks, and at the very least we'll need a credible Propaganda Minister to make it look like we stole the election fair and square.
Propaganda minister? That reminds me of that hilarious Iraqi minister about a decade ago. What's he up to these days?
Well everything is not that rosy in the land of the free is it/ Unemployment still a problem a million annually losing homes, 40 million on food stamps and the lower paid really crawking as the rich get richer.
With millions impoverished in Britain (http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/12/15/ukpo-d15.html)and many losing their homes or in danger doing so and Big Macs being hideously expensive in Norway (http://www.geographic.org/country_ranks/big_mac_index_currency_undervaluation_2010_country_rankings.html), we should indeed annex former US territory that now belongs to Canada.
Ha, ha. Typical media absorber. Here we have a Welfare State, msasive public housing. Unemploymen is down, millions out of the tax system, increased pensions and a definitive campaign to reduce the deficit. And you lot? Trillions increasing, unemployment still to be reduced, people who cannot afford doctors or hospitals. Our economy is the fastest growing in Europe. You really need to get out more. The only way you lot will get out of your self-imposed mess is to financially collapse and a new world currency to replace it. There again you pout about being the greatest in everything and bang the big drum like a school band so don't try and evade the issue sonny.
Russia is going through the headache because you people don't like being challenged and so hypocritical to smipe at Russia's predicament. Even more so with your internal and external history. Russia is NOT trying to dominate the world with bases everywhere not take over Ukraine. That the US funded the illegal power thing in Kiev is body-swerved and all the countries the US effectively controls. The selfishness of you're country in the sanctions and the Europeans going along with it is shameful. That industrialist )especially in Germany of all places) and farming industries across Europe are all suffering now too means damn all because the USA can get by without any bother to it! That hypocrisy again.
You think you can sit back that anyone else could suffer due to the present oil problem is comfortable because you sneeringly think you have shale gas for a century. However it seems that some experts over there are saying it could actually only last 10 to 15 years so look forward to that chum. Ordinary Russians know there is a problem but one woman interviewed on a Moscow Street kind of summed up an wide attitude. She said that she was aware that the US led West was trying to get at President Putin and such but that she and her compatriots were patriotic (as Russians have always naturally been). In addition that their President was a patriot too and the right man to lead them. That 80% of Russians support Putin is a niggle to America and it's West poodles and any chance to snipe will be made. What is the US President's latest poll?? However once Russia gets by they now have great agreements with China and India (world's biggest democracy - not the word "democracy"). Those two have had the sense to avoid America which has never really left the old Cold War days. Someone should let ordinary Americans know that the USSR is no longer around! For a country with trillions in debt - so much in hawk to Communist China (there's a hoot and Senator McCarthy will be turning in his grave!) to try and take the moral high ground is something else!
I am a long appreciator of Russian history and historically a Tsarist but Putin is a great Russian so well done to him! They should make him Emperor! :lol: :hat: :yes:
Here we have a Welfare State,
Which the Tory party are dismantling.
msasive public housing.
No we don't. Because of Thatcher, most of them were sold to private owners,
Unemploymen is down
Because people are being forced to take jobs with zero hour contracts. But hey it makes them unemployment figures look good for the Tory scumbags.
millions out of the tax system,
Because peoples wages are so low,
increased pensions
A minuscule amount, but because of rising costs in food and energy, the pensioners are worse off in real terms.
Just thought I would add my tuppence worth, in case anyone thought britain (the lower case 'b' is intentional), was the land of milk and honey.
This is (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/253164678/offtopic.gif) though. So I'll say no more.
More dross from our resident 20th century resident Jacobite. Some how these tartan crackers think that somehow an independent Scotland would be immune from world problems - oh and the oil which they always over estimate is now in a critical position. This is due to the dramatic price fall and the cost of getting it out of the North Sea. Since the Jacobites lost in September they have been kept going with fairy tales and think they could have raised the tax threshold and pensions more than the national government. it is all emotion nationalistic bluster and sour grapes. When tax limits were raised to the £10,000 then it went to another £500 and the government is aiming for a £12,500 threshold. As for dismantling the Welfare State what an utterly leftist and stupid remark that is when one considers the government has pumped more money into it. At the same time it also overdue for tightening up the Social Security thing as it was getting out of control and misused. It is meant for the needy not an alternative to work. Right now there are more working than befoe and that includes youth. In the private sector wages are now going to rise.
Then falling back to history (typical Jaco stuff) and going on about thatcher. When she gave ordinary people the right to but large numbers of your and mine fellow Scots rushed to buy. So don't give us this nonsense tall Council housing was sold to the private. A barefaced untruth. Large numbers of people who do not own homes are in Housing Associations which are community run organisations dear know little. Here in Glasgow what used to be the City Council Housing is now a Glasgow Housing Association!. And your childish go at your Tory ridicule many of those same associations were aided by the Thatcher government! And while at it with your emotional political uff about the Tories may I remind you also of this. At the last General Election, the SNP, Labour and conservatives were all polling over the 400,000 mark in Scotland. Because the Tory people were more scattered and the others in tighter areas the appropriate results happened. Some democrat or tolerant you are describing well over 400,000 of fellow Sots scumbags?? Yeah you are right you should shut up and move on.
Meantime in the real world well done President Putin with his excellent 3 hour gift to the media! As Russia and the far east get closer there will be a broader base in the world but we can expect more hassle from the world dictatorship based in North America. :D
Thought for a second there I had inadvertently browsed to the Daily mail web site. Same drivel, easy mistake. (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/253164678/yawn.gif)
The Guardian a lefty, "liberal" paper in steep decline is as dependable as me saying I support the Vatican.
To find support for a personal opinion, look for a news source that supports it and denigrate any other view. Is anybody surprised by that?
Typical Luxor and like many here who are really lefty inclined on the nationalist front. The fact that the Daily Mail as a black top sells a high number whatever you think of it is neatly sidestepped. If you lot of over emotional, rabid and frictional lot had won we would have been in some plight. Somehow the country would have been totally different than elsewhere in the financially pressed world. We in the norther part of the Kingdom would have had benefits and dish outs raised and borrowed like hell to pay for it. We were also going to be happy as larry due to oil and that has been proved a laugh. Better sticking to the thread sonny. Salmond is full of nonsense and still hasn't come to terms with getting bounced. What a laugh it would be if he didn't take the north east seat from the Liberal Democrats. And as for that mouth Sturgeon rabbiting about how Salmond would rock Westminster it shows the juvenile emotion of you lot! Stick to the Sunday Post, Oor Willie and the Broons. :lol:
???
Typical - although I should give you consideration for being so far away from the tartan shortbread mentality.. A long time ago and i repeated it, I stated I don't drink alcohol at all so well done doing the skipping act. Will give you pats on the back for continuity in that.
???
Ha, ha. Typical media absorber. Here we have a Welfare State, msasive public housing. Unemploymen is down, millions out of the tax system, increased pensions and a definitive campaign to reduce the deficit. And you lot? Trillions increasing, unemployment still to be reduced, people who cannot afford doctors or hospitals.
Really, Howie? I would have thought that bringing up the cost of Big Macs at total random was a dead giveaway that it wasn't serious. Who's your favorite poet? I'll bet it's Edgar Allen Poe (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law)
???
What about that post didn't you understand?
I understood Howie's post perfectly. He said in part "Typical - although I should give you consideration for being so far away from the tartan shortbread mentality.. " What he's saying is that tt92's mentality is like plaid cookies. I'm not saying that it makes any sense :left:
No you haven't Sanguinemoon and that jimbro was well aware of what was being said does show that unfortunately and even more so your down-under pal, unfortunately not able to deal with direct and simple statements! In such discussions the lesser general mind will go into hibernation and dish out some rubbish (a more typical and understandable expression!) scoffing or using pointlessness. Such is life of course but i am concerned that it it gives an embarrassment to you both in doing the soft shoe shuffle...... :happy:
???
What's wrong, tt. Don't understand plain Glasgow?
And speaking of Tartan Shortbread, here's a bit for the holidays.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi.ebayimg.com%2F00%2Fs%2FMTIwMFgxNjAw%2Fz%2FW1gAAMXQ56ZSBDy1%2F%24%28KGrHqN%2C%21k8FH6eRO%29GKBSBDy0tyuw%7E%7E60_35.JPG&hash=c3e3b81b499bc98516a1449fe583cd76" rel="cached" data-hash="c3e3b81b499bc98516a1449fe583cd76" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/MTIwMFgxNjAw/z/W1gAAMXQ56ZSBDy1/$(KGrHqN,!k8FH6eRO)GKBSBDy0tyuw~~60_35.JPG)
I had a Glaswegian working for me forty years ago. We could understand each other, up to a point, when he was sober, but when he was drunk even his wife couldn't make out what he was trying to say. He was a good programmer, but became increasingly agitated as lunchtime got closer and he could have his first drinks of the day. His nose was very much on one side of his face, and he attributed that to the fact that he used to go to The Gorbals to pick fights and always seemed to pick left-handers.
What's wrong, tt. Don't understand plain Glasgow?
I don't think that's even Glasgow. I've had clients from that city and their variety of English was clearer to me than many American ones. So, my theory is that's Howie, peculiar dialect that's nearly unintelligible to the rest of the English speaking world.
I know what might help.
.
,
;
:
-
"
'
:D :D :D :D :D
=========================
However, I do wonder what all of this has to do with "What's Going On In Russia?".
Oh you are trying to be acting an attempt at subtle slagging off there Sanguinemoon. It is of course easy to follow that direction than face the practical or truth. I dare say you are trying to be capable but even anything simple is a sad strain! It is unfortunate that whatever education you got in the ex-colonies it has not matured you yet. You should have taken up a career in variety as a dancer. :cheers:
Meanwhile, back in Russia the economy continues its collision course with deep reccesion (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/27/uk-russia-crisis-market-rouble-idUKKBN0K40H420141227?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews) and the American one is looking a five percent growth rate, the highest since 2003. Your man Putin is relic of the USSR. I recommend you both get with the 21st century. However, I'd wager he can speak English instead of whatever language you speak.
Well you HOPE to see an increase so let us wait and see as I pointed out we have had a great unemployment drops, economic growth etc but you have an even harder climb with the constant adding to the trillions.
As for Putin he has an 80% approval rate whereas your President scrapes 40% And what utterly gobblygook political and media braining you have had like too many others. Youre mindset people thought when Communism collapsed and Putin right into that you could add the new Russia into you corner of political and more importantly, corporate and economic control. That didn't happen so the petted lip has developed into downright antagonism. In actual fact when you listen to President Putin away from the big press conferences he is in practice a very clever man and Russia is a far more improved place from the days of the USSR and the long bread queues and such stuff. You like to hit at me for being bias and you should take a long look at yourself boy. And as for straight forward language in that corner you have only copied someone else and didn't think that up yourself.
Your own country is going through a hard time so get on with doing something about it instead of being cannon fodder for devious politicians and corporates who also control everything you pontificate on. Russia will get back to where it was and it's increasing trade and commerce with China that country that America is up to the ears in debt to (ha, ha the Communists of all people!)and China. Both those nations have stuck their tongues out at Imperial America so tells you something else as well. Gradually Russia will move to the Far east club and it is German industry that will suffer as well as the farming and fruit part of Europe. Not that such bothers the US too much as long as they can control people. So had your lot taken Russia over after the fall of Communism no doubt people like you would be boasting about Russia. Well good for that country to stay independent of your corporate and political corruption! Even Gorbachov whom you became pally with has supported Putin.
So you lost the chance to make money in the new Russia and tough on you! :hat:
The amendments that the Duma voted on Friday include introducing prison sentences for failure to report a grave crime and doubling the number of crimes that Russians as young as 14 years old can be prosecuted. Another forces telecommunications companies to store logs and data for months, a measure which threatens to eat almost all of the companies' profits.
The amendments that the Duma voted on Friday include .... telecommunications companies to store logs and data for months, a measure which threatens to eat almost all of the companies' profits.
I can't tell for the entire Free World but I can tell you for sure that telecomunication companies in Germany do also store logs for ten weeks (all server IPs you connect to and all tel. numbers of incoming/outgoing calls with the respective time of day).
Wonder if in your country such logs aren't made without your knowing. ;)
You probably heard about the saying: [sarcasm] We have nothing to hide. [/sarcasm]
I can't tell for the entire Free World
You can, unfortunately.
I only use pigeon post these days.
I can't tell for the entire Free World but I can tell you for sure that telecomunication companies in Germany do also store logs for ten weeks (all server IPs you connect to and all tel. numbers of incoming/outgoing calls with the respective time of day).
They do all over the world. This is nothing special. It's a weak point in the article. However, imagine a company facing the other charge - failure to report their customers who are conspiring a crime as seen in the logs...
Oksanen: Länsstyrelsen utnyttjad i rysk propaganda-TV (http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=94&artikel=6478299)
An official at Gotland's administration was interviewed about the natural reserves on the island, but later ended up being used as if talking about military preparations against Russia. The Russian channel who conducted the interview and later put together the news story was the Gazprom-owned NTV.
Now, this is common knowledge in the Baltic countries. It's simply how Russian journalism works since early 90's (a heritage from even earlier times, of course). We have policies in place to tackle the issue. We keep lists of outlets and journalists who operate this way, they are branded as propaganda-mongerers and barred from getting press passes. It's a hard work to maintain those lists and to check them every time you get an interview request, but when you have the kind of neighbour you have, you have to do it. Naive happy-go-lucky Swedes are easy prey.
The little reportage by NTV is here
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrfypC4wkTQ[/video]
The relevant moment is at 3:35. The section is about NATO and Swedish military forces building up an attack base in Gotland.
My wife informed me that Trump said Russia can have the Baltic states: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/21/trump-would-not-leap-to-defend-baltic-states-from-russian-attack-nyt.html
(Technically I suppose this is going on in America, but it seems more appropriate here.)
Way to show the world he plans on making the US an untrustworthy ally. Okay, GOP the joke's over. Nice long prank :lol: Now get that jackass off the stage and show us the real candidate. Or maybe I'm having a long nightmare that an assclown reality show star that is orange for some reason could become president. (maybe the orange is assclown face makeup? :confused: ) I hope the second option is the correct one, but fear it isn't even an elaborate prank by the GOP.
(Technically I suppose this is going on in America, but it seems more appropriate here.)
Why is it more appropiate here?
Is Trump a Russian citizen or have you got proof that Russia is planning to invade the Baltic states? :left:
Nobody has "proof." But Trump throwing around statements like that just to appeal to the GOP base makes it more likely that Putin would pull something during a hypothetical Trump presidency. The rest of us remember their wasn't "proof" of what Putin was doing in Ukraine and Crimea until it was too late.
@midnight raccoon
Firstly, my question was addressed to Frenzie. I don't think you're his alter ego.
Secondly, the entire mess we have now in the Ukraine is the result of the US staged putsch there. (F*ck the EU).
It was a signed agreement between representatives of the EU, Russia and the Ukraine. The USA blowed up that agreement with the help of the Right Sector 48 hours later...
Without Russian help the Crimeans would have never had a chance of a referendum. Thanks to Russia it was a peaceful secession without a single shot fired.
Too peaceful for some... Some would have preferred instead a bloody civil war as in Donetsk and Luhansk.
The Ukraine is bankrupt but its new 'democratic' leadership can still afford a civil war. Therefore part of my tax money is flowing thither. Yours not. Yours would be used at best to poison the situation there even more.
BTW, as disturbing it may sound to you, Crimeans are happy for leaving the mess and for enjoying their life in peace.
My wife informed me that Trump said Russia can have the Baltic states: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/21/trump-would-not-leap-to-defend-baltic-states-from-russian-attack-nyt.html
Actually, he said (and it's stated in the article too) "If [the Baltic countries] fulfil their obligations to us..." The politicians here are quite upset at the suggestion that any of the Baltic countries somehow owes something to the US or that somebody is not fulfilling their obligations.
Of course, it basically also means what you(r wife) said: If Russia attacked the Baltic countries, Trump would not care. As Jax once said, the Baltic countries have "not worth it" written all over them. Jax meant of course that this is why Putin would not attack, but now that Trump has indirectly declared that the Baltic countries are on their own, nevermind Nato, then why should Putin restrain himself?
Why is it more appropiate here?
Is Trump a Russian citizen or have you got proof that Russia is planning to invade the Baltic states? :left:
Because I forgot about our "Scandinavia, North Atlantic, Baltic States and Scotland" topic and it's a lot further down while skimming topic titles. Or more concretely, because it
concerns the Baltic states and Russia even if technically it isn't going on in either of those places.
And lest you forgot, the former Baltic provinces have faced increasing incursions by aircraft and submarines since 2014 (remember, e.g., this (http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/medialibrary/2014/11/09/6375e3da/Dangerous%20Brinkmanship.pdf)). The symbolically important NATO response you decry and Trump poopoos is meant to prevent such Russian provocations from one day turning into something more.
Actually, he said
Well, that's why I give my interpretation with a link to a source as opposed to *cough, cough* "I heard it on TV". :D But I should've written "Trump
effectively said.
but now that Trump has indirectly declared that the Baltic countries are on their own, nevermind Nato, then why should Putin restrain himself?
Because NATO - US = Canada + Europe? :P
Because NATO - US = Canada + Europe? :P
This is not how alliances work. Without USA there will be no NATO. Would there be EU without Germany? Or CIS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States) without Russia?
This is not how alliances work.
It seems you're confusing "alliance" with marriage, when you should be conflating it with civil partnership! :)
Firstly, my question was addressed to Frenzie. I don't think you're his alter ego.
Secondly, the entire mess we have now in the Ukraine is the result of the US staged putsch there. (F*ck the EU).
Firstly, this a public forum. Anybody can post.
Secondly, who was again occupied Crimea and held a bogus referendum and even lied that unmarked uniforms were there's and latter had to admit it.
Without Russian help the Crimeans would have never had a chance of a referendum.
That was conquest and annexation. Snatching up another country's territory is "help?"
The Ukraine is bankrupt but its new 'democratic' leadership can still afford a civil war.
A civil war egged on by Russian troops in the eastern part of the country, which also helped destroy the economy.
This is not how alliances work. Without USA there will be no NATO. Would there be EU without Germany? Or CIS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States) without Russia?
Perhaps Canada is too optimistic, but the tighter integration of European armed forces has little to do with NATO. EU without Germany? Hard to say given the original purpose of the EU was centered around Germany. I imagine a western EU (or perhaps rather, a 1980s EU without Germany and the UK) might well continue to exist. Much of the eastward expansion was under pressure from the UK anyway, even though now the hypocrites decided to leave instead of facing the (actually positive!) consequences of their own actions.
The CIS is a rather different story. I suppose you mean to imply that Russia is to CIS as the US is to NATO. Well, I guess there might be something to that. The Dutch army hasn't independently implemented a proper operation since Indonesia, and that was shameful. (Not militarily, but morally.) On the flip-side, when's the last time Russia did anything noteworthy since Afghanistan? The simple fact is that the American army is the most competent or at least the most practiced, but therefore also most overconfident army on the planet. Our chances may well be better without their expert certainty in supreme American military planning and technology. Remember, Americans train under the assumption that the enemy has inferior technology. The (potential) enemy does not, and neither do we.
More and more interesting, Frenzie… :) (And let's hope we all survive the next four years of Trump or Clinton! :( )
(And let's hope we all survive the next four years of Trump or Clinton! :( )
In practice, in spite of all the hubbub I don't think American policy really differs that much from one administration to the other. Regardless of your perspective, Bush or Obama was fairly unsuccessful at destroying or improving the place. Of course, under the separation of powers that is pretty much how it should be.
Of course, under the separation of powers that is pretty much how it should be.
So: You
do recognize that the American Congress has shirked its duties?
Putin is riding a bear. That's the last post about What's Going On In Russia.
The moderators are sleeping?
The symbolically important NATO response you decry and Trump poopoos is meant to prevent such Russian provocations from one day turning into something more.
Russia has enough Lebensraum. They don't need the Baltic states. Another thing they don't need are US nukes stationed in front of their nose.
As for the symbolic sabre-rattling which you call an important NATO response, its only aim is to poison European - Russian relations.
A strong Europe in good relations with Russia would be a partner more difficult 'to handle' than a divided one.
The moderators are sleeping?
Which moderators?
The admin has just successfully resurrected the thread, ;)
Another thing they don't need are US nukes stationed in front of their nose.
Ohh, they have already the German nukes ready for them...
By the way, are you already allowed to have just a simple army? last time I checked you were not. Consequences of your nazi past.
The moderators are sleeping?
Which moderators?
The admin has just successfully resurrected the thread, ;)
Psst,
@ersi posted first. :P In any case, it's policy not to moderate topics in which you're participating, excepting spam and other blatantly obvious violations of the rules. But in any case, looks like par for the course in my book.
anywhere that does not bend the knee to the corporate/political control that runs America can expect propaganda against them, economic sanctions, de-stabilising or even invasion. Small wonder the US has so many in uniform being so imperialist and hundreds of bases for "protection." How insulting to the intelligence but you can get away with that in America. When corporate America could not get control of the new capitalist Russia that was the scene for bashing the bear. Well good for russia that it maintains it's independence so well done Putin!
Have you heard of the Yarovaya Law (https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/06/23/draconian-law-rammed-through-russian-parliament)
The part about stripping Russian nationals of their citizenship has supposedly be taken out but:
Heated discussions around this scandalous amendment on the other hand diverted media and public attention from other extremely worrying provisions of the Yarovaya Law that require serious debate and evaluation for their compliance with basic human rights protections. They include:
- Requiring cellular and Internet providers to store all communications data in full for six months and all metadata for three years in the interests of the security services (who cares about the costs, not to mention the right to privacy);
- Making cryptographic backdoors mandatory in all messaging applications (who cares if WhatsApp and many others don’t even hold encryption keys… not to mention the right to privacy);
- Banning proselytizing, preaching, praying, or disseminating religious materials outside of “specially designated places,” like officially recognized religion institutions (who cares about freedom of conscience); and
- Reviving the infamous Soviet norm on criminal liability for failure to report to law enforcement authorities that someone else “has been planning, is perpetrating, or has perpetrated” certain types of crime, and yes, just like in the Soviet times, it could mean that a priest, for example, will be under obligation to report on what he hears during confession. At the same time, it’s not clear what “planning” stands for or what level of knowledge needs to be proved to hold a person liable.
Still well good for Russia? Keep in mind this just one of many laws.
I hope you don't somehow think Russia is somehow freer than the West or has a "wider democracy" because this clearly isn't the case. And don't bother just claiming this is propaganda without being able to demonstrate the info provided is not correct. (This site isn't loyal to any country, just to human rights. Here's an article about US police killings for example (https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/07/07/dispatches-us-police-killings-witnessed-around-world). )
Have you heard of the Yarovaya Law (https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/06/23/draconian-law-rammed-through-russian-parliament)
I mentioned the very same law earlier in this thread (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=549.msg63201#msg63201).
Irina Yarovaya is a Zhirinovsky-type figure in Russian politics. For example, here she carefully explains that learning foreign languages is a threat to Russian values https://youtu.be/uKCuBqKxApA Edit: Unfortunately she cannot be dismissed as a clown. This year she pushed through the data-spying law, but earlier she has pushed through a law on politically correct (in the Russian sense) history-writing. For example, the law states that Russia's role in WWII was to act as a liberator and failure to present history from this perspective is punishable with up to five years in prison. Here's some discussion about it http://www.lph-asso.fr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=73%3Ale-debat-russe-sur-les-lois-memorielles&catid=31%3Adossier-russie&Itemid=78&lang=en /edit
Whilst one is pushing a spying law on its own people, the other spies on the entire world without the need of any law. :devil:
Is it a democratic state or a floundering proto-Soviet empire wannabe? I'm sure there are many here who will be more than willing to enlighten me.
The idea for this thread came to me when I saw this photo in a journal that I subscribe to, Foreign Policy.
(https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/gettyimages-167414962.jpg)
The photo appears to have been taken in a Russian store.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/23/the-eu-moves-to-counter-russian-disinformation-campaign-populism/ (http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/23/the-eu-moves-to-counter-russian-disinformation-campaign-populism/)
Is [Russia] a democratic state or a floundering proto-Soviet empire wannabe?
Well, North Korea is an empire wannabe. Russia, as the greatest territory in the world, is no wannabe, but a state with imperial ambitions that can actually be enforced, if they play it right. Or, better said, if everybody else keeps playing it stupidly enough. And it looks like US/EU specifically are playing it stupidly enough. The force that can reasonably moderate Russia's ambitions is China who has very much the same ambitions.
Floundering? Not economically, surprisingly. I thought Russians would attempt a revolution when rouble shrunk in half in devaluations, while loans of the people are tied to USD, i.e. the people were officially robbed. Some mobs attacked banks in response, but for some reason this wave cooled down.
Democratic? There are hardly any democratic countries in the world. Where I live, the supranational entity called EU has eroded much of the power and distinction of nation-states by an undemocratic process. When/if EU begins critically failing, the countries who relied on it too much will have to re-orientate themselves or re-discover their own identity. The latter often means nazism to some degree and the former is not necessarily democratic either.
A country like Russia always found expansive opportunities under the rule of a Czar or Czar-like figure plus kleptocracy. Which is right now. About high time I went there again to see it all myself first hand.
Edit: And congrats for managing to open a third thread on Russia exactly with the same heading. The other two are here
https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=549.0
https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=260.0
We also have threads specifically dedicated to Putin. Hot stuff.
In general terms since the collapse of the USSR there has been a general improvement. Years ago I had a boss who was desperate to visit the USSR as if it was some place of inspiration (poor woman). However when she came back from her holiday she was a changed person. From poor hotel matters to everything controlled by the State. Outside of party bosses who had use of cars it was tram or bus. Shops were not very attractive. Personally i can remember the dreadful views inside shops and it never appealed to me at all. Shops had shortages and the lives of the population boring as hell. Even food shops had constant queues. Today the cities are crammed with traffic jams, wide variety of commerce, shops and competition so well moving in the right direction.
The place has vastly changed from the control, freakery of the Soviet nonsense and being so large has every right to make it's presence felt. Just nodded to my picture of the last Tsar.....
Edit: And congrats for managing to open a third thread on Russia exactly with the same heading. The other two are here
https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=549.0 (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=549.0)
https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=260.0 (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=260.0)
Merged the thread into thread #549, probably to be merged into #260.
Edit: And congrats for managing to open a third thread on Russia exactly with the same heading. The other two are here
Sorry, I couldn't find the earlier versions.
What's going on in the DnD Sanctuary? (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=767.0)
Merged the thread into thread #549, probably to be merged into #260.
What would be about us if not protected by buroucrats?
Putin has a law on the Russian nation (https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/putin-supports-law-on-russian-nation-55976) in the making.
"Nation" is an unfortunately ambiguous word in Indo-European languages. The ambiguity helps politicians to cover up their real intentions, enabling rhetorical retreat when challenged, while sending appropriate signals where needed. In the West, "nation" means more like country and citizenship, but in Russia it means more likely ethnicity.
To add to the ambiguity, Putin chose the foreign loan word to refer to the law plans. This has a double effect. The foreign loan word may convey to Western nations that the concept would be just like they in the West have it. On the other hand, the loan word in Russian is pronounced close to "Nazi" in English. Say no more.
It also has a direct connection to the hitherto shunned (shunned in Kremlin) word "nationalism". For Kremlin thus far, it's always those other countries, such as the Baltics, who are "nationalists" while Russia is cozy and peaceful and merely helping "compatriots" (=ethnic Russians abroad). Now it's evidently the turn for Kremlin to be openly nationalists themselves.
In other news, Steven Seagal visited Putin in Kremlin and ceremonially received his Russian passport (http://www.newsru.com/russia/25nov2016/seagal.html). Grab yours too while they are still hot.
(https://dndsanctuary.eu/imagecache.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.newsru.com%2Fpict%2Fid%2Flarge%2F2227270_20161125204237.gif&hash=f97c8010c931529f2b3b0ee9a6073ee0" rel="cached" data-hash="f97c8010c931529f2b3b0ee9a6073ee0" data-warn="External image, click here to view original" data-url="http://image.newsru.com/pict/id/large/2227270_20161125204237.gif)
A KGB at the left, an idiot at the right but who's the man in the statue?
Hope the statute was of a Tsar. As for the FORMER KGB man your country could do with someone like him.
The Tsar is the KGB man. The statue is there for giving him the ancestry he doesn't have.
Your cult of personality is turning into a maniac obssession for the man Rjhowie. I suppose you already started the Putinesque Fan Club at your village.
Dear oh dear, Belfrager. You re getting like the usual anti-Russian guff here and trying to take the distance by accusing me of ne--fanaticism.
What I have done is to show the advantages to Russia and the place is a hell of a lot different from Soviet days. Interestingly that country has looked back to the previous days with the pre-Revolutionary national flag, Tsarist emblems and dress uniforms. You have had your brain infiltrated by the usual Western media guff. Hey you could pass for a Yank. At least trump for all his question marks wants some sensible link with the Russians as they cannot take oer it's capitalism nor military!
You have had your brain infiltrated by the usual Western media guff. Hey you could pass for a Yank.
Hardly such thing could ever happen.
Well I dashed well hope not my amusing white socks man supporter! ;)
For quite a while I wondered if the weird passport regulations for foreigners had originated in Tsarist era. Because if they did, they would make sense. Now I found out that this is indeed so.
The passport must be exhibited on arrival to the local authorities (through the hotel-keeper or house-porter to avoid inconvenience), who will register it... Neglect of this rule may be punished by expulsion from the Empire... The passport regulations are now more strictly applied than ever, particularly at St. Petersburg. Tourists should keep this in mind, for any neglect of these regulations is visited with discomfort and annoyance, and even with penalties.
This applies even today, but is still commonly ignored by foreigners in Russia. Particularly journalists should know better, but then again, sometimes they have good reasons to try to circumvent it.
Source https://archive.org/details/handbookfortrave00john_24
Being a long Tsarist sympathiser very interesting...... :up:
This episode of "Under the maps" analyzes some of what's going on in the Caucasus region of Russia.
http://www.arte.tv/guide/fr/067846-012-A/le-dessous-des-cartes
Ukrainian state TV says that Tuva Republic (part of Russia) wants to become independent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WSwYISuvoM
(just a few activists talking about history of Tuva in the video)
Incidentally, Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defence of Russia, the main state official responsible for the war, is from Tuva. Cannon fodder for the war front is disproportionately drawn from remote regions of Russia, including Tuva. According to official statistics, Tuva has always been the poorest region of Russia.
And here is a map of Taiwan's territorial claims. Tuva is the bigger yellow patch. Not heard if Tuvans want independence from Taiwan also.
(https://www.populationdata.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/taiwan-revendications-territoriales.png)
Meanwhile things seems to be happening.
https://www.dw.com/en/live-updates-putin-threatens-punishment-for-wagner-mutiny/a-66018647
Meanwhile things seems to be happening.
https://www.dw.com/en/live-updates-putin-threatens-punishment-for-wagner-mutiny/a-66018647
In my assessment, there's much fakery/propaganda/fog-of-war going on.
Prigozhin is not complaining about the war because he think's the war is a mistake. Prigozhin is complaining about the war and the official war leaders because he is playing a role assigned to him. His role is to represent and channel the war extremists, to get people excited about the war. In case of failure in the "special operation" (the failure that became the case soon enough), the war extremists need to be channeled away from targeting Putin and towards targeting Shoigu and war generals - this is the role Prigozhin has.
Wagner's march on Rostov or Moscow or whichever was a calculated farce. There's only a semblance of mutiny. Putin's denunciation of Wagner was a continued calculated farce. The Belarus solution is as real as Minsk agreements of 2014. The idea of these moves is to make Westerners/Ukrainians think that the power of Kremlin is crumbling due to disagreements within Russian power elites. This would invite Westerners to attempt to identify and exploit different factions in Kremlin.
In reality, the are no factions in terms of internal disagreements. Russian business elite (oligarchy) has always been and still is united in one goal — the preservation of their wealth privileges. The oligarchy does not care about any other values besides hedonistic values. The oligarchy has no political preferences apart from having given away the political power to Putin's inner circle. There are no cracks in the inner circle worth mentioning, even considering the Prigozhin/Wagner shenanigans. There are, however, disconnects between what Kremlin does as opposed to how Russian oligarchy would like it. The oligarchy would prefer "business" — plundering Russia's wealth and stashing it in Western tax havens, which presupposes stable relations with the West — whereas Kremlin needs to consider some geopolitics — the post-Soviet continental drift away from Kremlin and the encroachment of Nato. The geopolitics needs to be managed by hybrid military means due to Kremlin's lack of prestige and lack of popular appeal among its neighbours.
The Kremlin's power is brittle due to this widening disconnect. Brittle is not the same as crumbling. Brittle means that it can collapse swiftly and unexpectedly, while there is no institutional decay, no political opposition versus coalition and no real internal "doves versus hawks" in Kremlin, i.e. the power is singular and uncontested all the way to the very end. It's similar to the way Gorbachev's power ended. Towards the end of Soviet Union, Gorbachev often provided a military response to any attempts to secede, it's just that the army did not stretch everywhere, and eventually having the army shoot Russians on Red Square thoroughly demoralised the army. A more managed response was to set up local "national front" movements around some figures of local nomenklatura. The anti-Gorbachev coup of 1991, mostly believed to be genuine in the West, was actually orchestrated with Gorbachev's consent, with his own participation. It was meant that he'd return to power in less than a week as a hero, but the orchestration failed as Russia itself (Yeltsin) seceded from Soviet Union, something that the conspiracy maestros failed to foresee.
Similarly right now, Kremlin's power is singular and uncontested; it's just that Kremlin is getting worse at its own game. The game needs to be refreshed occasionally, but Kremlin is only good at rigid repetitive routine. There are elements and aspects that they fail to consider and analyse properly, for example how they overestimated their own military capabilities and underestimated the West's readiness to support Ukraine. However, in all its badness it's still a game that Kremlin controls.
It's not real news that Lukashenko and Prigozhin and Putin came to an agreement. They were already in agreement, but now it's presented as if news or as if a development in events. In the "mutiny" maneuvring there was no good outcome for Prigozhin, so he was either doing as told/agreed or he went so out of his mind that it's unsafe for him (potentially leading to arrest or deposition). But the Belarus solution indicates that Kremlin's crisis managers foresee a continuation of the same role for Prigozhin.
If the mutiny was orchestrated, then what did Putin's regime gain from it? If there's not much gain, I guess it was not all that well orchestrated. It still was orchestrated though: Perceived betrayers, such as investigative journalists and West-friendly youtubers in Russia are beaten up, locked up or killed, but Prigozhin suffered none of the usual fate assigned to a betrayer. So evidently he was within the limits permitted to him. The limits were to not threaten Putin directly, but to whip Russian military leadership, hopefully urging them to better coordination, and making Russian war-blogosphere hold a similar rhetorical line. Unfortunately, the organisation and management of the war effort has been so bad, the lack of ammunition and provisions has been real, leading to mutual clashes so that Prigozhin could not keep things purely rhetorical any longer. Prigozhin is an actual criminal since youth and he has a criminal's code of honour, which demands an actual carrying out of some of the threats/promises, lest his own soldiers turn against him.
There was a severe downside in the eyes of general Russian public: Putin's power seems shaky and weak. Russians don't like a weak czar. However, in terms of his relations with the West, Putin in fact wants the West to think of his power as shaky and weak to a point. When Putin's power seems crumbling, it induces the West to shiver more about nukes and post-Putin market opportunities, and proportionally worry less about Ukraine, thinking that Ukraine needs less support than it is requesting.
Make no mistake: Ukrainians believe that the West is as hypocritical as Russian propaganda makes the West out to be. This is not because of the propaganda, but because of history. When the Warsaw bloc was falling apart, there were Western ambassadors in all the Soviet Union member states advocating the member states to stay in the union — because a bigger common market is more beneficial to everyone, the nukes would be safer etc. Ukraine got to experience the full onslaught of such Western ambassadors and the result was a confused political orientation of the country: One president of Ukraine leaned towards West, next towards Russia, and so on alternately until the current president. Nobody but the West must correct this now. The outcome of the war is not "for Ukrainians to decide". It's up for the West to correct their own hypocrisy: Stop rewarding Russian hybrid assaults and landgrabs. The latest Russian landgrabs are Donbass, Crimea, and invasion of Ukraine. These latest Russian landgrabs must, as a minimum, be fully reversed with the help of NATO countries and the EU, then Ukraine (along with post-Soviet countries that have already allied with the West) can forgive the Western hypocrisy and become a good member. If not, then the EU will crack along the Old/New or West/East faultline, because the Eastern members will conclude that the EU is more like a knife in the back instead of a safe roof. The Eastern members want to be safe from Russia and this is why they joined the EU. This is an existential need. This should not be hard to understand, but somehow has been beyond the comprehension of Western members.
As it stands now, the West still has not defined "victory". They say it's up to Ukraine in negotiations. This implies that Western plan is that Russia's evils will yet again be rewarded and rights of national self-determination will yet again not be respected. The West keeps doing this because of hypocrisy: Russia is a more lucrative market than Ukraine will ever be; to keep Russia a lucrative market, the more urgent concern is to hold Russia together whereas Ukraine is entirely negotiable. The Western mindset was the same when the Warsaw bloc was falling apart: Seek compromises with Russia over everybody else's rights and needs, a la Budapest Memorandum, the idea of which was to prevent things coming to a head, but things came to a head anyway and the value of the memorandum for Ukraine turned out to be exactly zero while Russia could again do as it pleased despite signatures and assurances and whatever. Western behaviour has been consistent on this throughout. For Russia it is a welcome vulnerability to keep exploiting.
An interesting point is that Wagner has been meddling in Syria and several African countries taking over, in particular, former French colonial possessions, and France has had essentially no response. Macron's plan seems to have been to "talk" with Putin. This is the level of servility of the West to Russia. And I suppose this is why Prigozhin is useful alive for Putin. Prigozhin has the experience of posing such direct threats against the West (remember that the troll factories are also Prigozhin's project) and the West's response, at best self-humiliating requests for "talk" which can only produce something ridiculous like Budapest Memorandum or Minsk Agreements, is a lovely dynamics that is reasonable to keep going from Russia's point of view.
Sergey Zhirnov (or Serguei Jirnov, as he lives currently in France, or Сергей Жирнов, as he is a former Russian KGB officer) says that Putin has already killed Prigozhin and it will be revealed within months. His theory is sound from the conspirological point of view (conspirology was his field of expertise when working for KGB) and ties neatly some ends that are loose in my own theory.
Namely, according to my theory Putin would acknowledge that Prigozhin is the best operative manager in the world (because he indisputably is) and the two would reconcile, which might make generals conclude something like "Hey, when you rebel with a whole fully-equipped army, then you won't fall out of the window..." Putin would not allow direct threats like this arise against himself.
On the other hand, the weakness of Zhirnov's theory is that, knowing that Prigozhin is more of an authority to Putin than the other way round, how would Putin be able to bring himself to conspire against Prigozhin. And what co-conspirators would he be able to find? And also, is it likely that Prigozhin would walk into a deadly trap? We'll see if Prigozhin turns out alive again, and if yes, in what shape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ-IJzTR9aU
We'll see if Prigozhin turns out alive again, and if yes, in what shape.
Turned up alive in a tent allegedly in Belarus.
https://t.me/rsotmdivision/8946
A tent? Well then.
Basically, my theory discounts Putin's abilities and assumes that Prigozhin is about equal to Putin. The conspirologist's theory discounts Prigozhin's abilities and assumes that Putin has the upper hand.
The tent pic fits the conspirologist's theory better. Prigozhin has stopped publishing bravadocious videos of mighty Wagner and friends. The tent pic indicates that a new image and reputation is being built for Prigozhin, so that by the time his death is announced nobody will feel sorry.
This fall from grace is particularly hard for the likes of Dugin (the one whose daughter was killed) who proclaimed Prigozhin as nothing short of Christ the Saviour of Mother Russia. I personally still think Prigozhin is alive and his abilities will still be useful to rob gold and diamonds in some third continents at least, if not meddle in elections and serve rotten food.
Igor Girkin has been arrested in Russia. To those not in the know, he is Mr. Donbass, the person tasked with and leading "militant separatism" in Donbass. As an aside, whenever somebody says that there are militant separatists in Donbass in Ukraine, you are being fed Russian propaganda. A separatist would be a local, but the events in Donbass were an operation of green men from Russia, a Russian invasion, exactly like in Crimea at the same time.
Igor Girkin is a citizen of Russia, always was, and his background is — might come as a surprise — FSB. He has been sitting more or less put in Donbass ever since he shot down MH17 (yup, there's your culprit, if you wanted him), but he has been vocally pro-expansion of Russia on the Telegram thingie. He has been the sweetheart of Russian warbloggers along with Prigozhin.
Why was he arrested? He did not like that Prigozhin survived the march on Moscow unscathed. He pointed out, correctly, that Prigozhin had conducted something that very much looked like a coup attempt or insurrection and that should be followed up with death penalty or similar, instead of exile. Different from Prigozhin, Girkin has been sharply dismissive against Putin directly when decrying the failures of the "special operation". Thus he is now finally under arrest for "extremism" (see the new anti-extremism laws of Russia).
What may follow? Perhaps Russia will use Girkin as a negotiation pawn à la "see, we are prosecuting war criminals" in order to deflect accountability away from bigger war criminals, such as Prigozhin, the generals, or Putin himself. Girkin's arrest indicates that the voices of Russian militarists (who are far more militant than the army) have become uncomfortable for Putin (something that was understood by observers as soon as the larger invasion stalled). It does not indicate that Putin's power is crumbling, however. The vocal hypermilitants are a very narrow group, consisting of "influencers" from among the rubble, not army people or state officials. Their leader Girkin and some of his closest fighters were the only ones in that group who are derived from among Russian state institutions, such as FSB, and they were that because they were originally specifically tasked with the occupation in 2014 and feeding to journalists that there was local militant separatism going on. This task is now over as the place is overrun by the larger official Russian army, so the former green men can be scrapped.
Prigozhin was effective at the front. Prigozhin took Bakhmut. Girkin was effective at the front. He held Donbass for years. For Putin, something else is more important than being competent or effective, and he proves it whenever things become critical. Since competence does not matter, the generals have remained the same all along (their heads were rotated for a while, but there were no new faces, they were all together at the front from the beginning as the same team), while those who have been competent and effective and demanding more competence and efficiency are being decommissioned or reassigned. That such reassignments occur and that Girkin is being scrapped is a demonstration that Putin can wield arbitrary power like an autocrat.
If one wants to think of some people in Putin's circle as his potential future replacement, then the closest to it is Prigozhin. Not Girkin. Girkin is expendable. Prigozhin has a proper army and other para-state institutions of his own that he has managed to keep. Overall it is not a good idea to entertain the notion that there is somebody in Putin's circle who wants to become the next leader of Russia. Definitely there is nobody pro-Western or with democratic tendencies. Putin himself was mistaken as pro-democracy by the West for far too long. And there is nobody autocratic either who would be able to administrate the autocracy — effective ambitious people are dangerous and they have already been purged. What remains are unambitious people, some more effective than others, but the more effective the less ambitious.
If there is someone ambitious and administratively effective, he is definitely outside of Putin's circle and has not revealed his ambition yet. Since we do not know who they are and even whether they exist, don't bet on them.
"influencers" from among the rubble (sic)
A Freudian slip? :)
Wagner chief Prigozhin listed as passenger on plane that crashed with no survivors, Russian authorities say (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-killed-private-jet-crash-north-moscow-tass-2023-08-23/)
So, Prigozhin is presumed dead now, due to an airplane crash near Tver, Russia. If true (the source for now is Russian media), it is not a coincidence, even though assuming that it's not a coincidence makes Putin too much of a mastermind plotter. Then again, his plotting is hollowing out whatever still keeps him standing.
Just before this news, Prigozhin published a video of himself in a desert, promising to make Russia great in Africa. So he was starting to get bravadocious again.
When I was trying to figure out earlier what might follow from Prigozhin's march on Moscow, I factored in Prigozhin's undeniable service to Russia and to Putin personally. For example,
- troll factories and cyber campaigns to warp Western media space and elections process
- redirecting Africa's gold, diamonds and other mineral wealth to Russia instead of the West
- battle gains in Syria and Ukraine
These alone are quite substantial achievements, right? But additionally, Prigozhin was a personal friend of Putin since early 1990's, if not earlier. As so-called Putin's cook or chef, Prigozhin served as Putin's food taster, literally, and for other people as food poisoner via his catering companies.
By this very public execution, Putin indicates that none of this matters. Hopefully everybody will interpret this "message" correctly. When the service for the country does not matter and personal friendship also does not matter, then absolutely nothing matters. Therefore Putin cannot be trusted in anything whatsoever. The lesson for his inner circle is that there is no way to please Putin and earn his trust. Even Prigozhin could not maintain it to the end. The lesson for the world at large is that there is no way to appease Putin and ensure something like peace for our time. Handing the victory in Ukraine war to Putin and helping him save his face will not make Putin your partner, reliable or otherwise. It will just make you look stupid, trusting the least trustworthy autocrat in the world, and he will be sure to show it to you.
Putin has played all his cards now. Everybody should see that he is ready to go out with a bang. Putin is not worth sparing and Russia as it is is not worth sparing. Getting rid of Putin and of Russia as it is will be more of a relief than a regret, including to Russians.
Yes, there is only one way a change of government can happen in Russia now.
Introducing the Russian Presidential election 2024 (a year also the EU and US can vote for Pro-Putin candidates, or not):
Kremlin Handpicks Putin’s 2024 Election Opponents (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/28/kremlin-handpicks-putins-2024-election-opponents-meduza-a82266)
Should be safe for now, but while the oligarchs are largely out of power, pitting the other groups he depend on against each other is getting harder.
A somewhat dated (but Europeans tend to be behind the curve...) interview with an American general:
https://youtu.be/iMUAaWK79Vc]https://youtu.be/iMUAaWK79Vc
(I'm especially interested in hearing ersi's reaction...
I know about the interview. Since Tucker Carlson's intro is a complete lie and the retired colonel is also solidly on the wrong side, there is no point watching it too closely.
My reaction was some relief when Tucker Carlson was fired from Fox and had to move to Twitter. Except Musk rebranded it so Tucker cannot be said to be tweeting, but rather X-creting or such.
At first Tucker got rather high-profile guests to his interviews, such as Trump, Pence, Orbán, Robert F Kennedy and the retired colonel here, but more lately his guests are becoming laughable, such as the guy who claims to have dated Obama. Laughable and ridiculous guests are more appropriate to Tucker's own profile.
Good to see you've found a new word, ersi! Although using turpitude in the context of Russian/Ukrainian "conflicts" is outré... :)
I wonder what will happen if Biden (for whatever reason) doesn't have a second term?
You are obviously asking because in USA you guys are far behind the curve. You personally do not even grasp what the curve is. Biden's second term is irrelevant. Right now the most relevant event is that the House of Reps has no speaker. All aid to Ukraine needs to be approved by the House, but this procedure has broken down now.
Due to this, the momentum of Nato support to Ukraine can be expected to rapidly diminish. There is nothing to be said of EU's support for Ukraine. It was only kept up in the wake of USA's support for Ukraine, to not look too bad, so with USA's support gone, the EU will get back to its ordinary strategic partnership with Russia.
For me the EU has proven itself utterly worthless. I have been talking about Russia's drang nach Westen on this forum at the latest since Sochi olympics, based on geopolitical observers, intelligence experts and opinionated historians I have been reading. This tendency of Russia's should be decisively countered by the EU, because it is aggression happening at the EU's doorstep, but the EU has only been making it worse by negotiating with Putin the order in which he'd prefer to pick up pieces of land in his neighbourhood.
The EU has hardly ever attempted anything in response to real aggression close by. They had no clue what to do about the war in Bosnia, and whatever they have been doing ever since has been fruitless. Same with Kosovo. When Baltic countries were under hybrid attack, the EU kept encouraging pro-Russian moves. And in Nagorno-Karabakh right now, all Armenians have to flee or else they will be massacred. The EU does not even have a rhetorical statement regarding this. Instead the EU, Russia and US held secret talks days before Nagorno-Karabakh blitz (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-and-russia-held-secret-talks-days-before-nagorno-karabakh-crisis/).
This is simply not correct, both on the EU and the US.
For the latter, the question is how much the Putin faction really rules Congress and the GOP. I think this was a Pyrrhic victory and that their influence will weaken rather than increase. But we are in the middle of the election campaign 2024, and that can affect the outcome in unpredictable ways. That said, expect a lot of new shipments to Ukraine and other supports in new ways. Now, 2025 and beyond may be a different story. Voting matters.
The EU has made the Baltic states secure, Ukraine is a more challenging story. Facts are: European military aid is increasing month by month, year by year. Non-military aid as well, but that goes without saying. It's the military aid that is new territory for the EU. Mind you, even with recent re-armament, there is no way we can compete with the absolutely humongous US stockpiles of weaponry.
However, in a reversal of the old joke, while Europe cannot outrun the US, we don't have to. We only need to outrun the bear.
That is a worst case though. A US capitulation would prolong the war in Ukraine with years. In part because we are less capable, the European re-armament will take a decade on average, in part because it would give Kremlin the glimmer of hope they somehow could win a losing war just by stubbornness and disinformation.
The Republican party used to make hawkishness their brand. The old party would have portrayed Biden as a lily-livered peacenik. How things have changed.
This is simply not correct, both on the EU and the US. [...] Voting matters. [...] A US capitulation would prolong the war in Ukraine with years.
These statements do not cohere. If the political orientation can change after a voting, then it is not sure whether I am correct or not. If USA capitulates, then I am correct about USA at least.
Anyway, I presented a forecast and I have solid reasons for it. The fatigue of war in the West is visible by now. Public opinion about the war has been divided since day one (another triumph of Russian propaganda) and this matters as far as voting matters.
I also take particular issue with the claim that the EU has made the Baltic countries safer. Not too long ago you casually suggested (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=2927.msg87135#msg87135) "Russia picks up Estonia, we pick up Königsberg." This thinking is pretty mainstream in western EU and this is exactly my point: The western EU does not perceive eastern EU as EU's border whose integrity it should be the EU's responsibility to protect. The EU thinks its borders are freely negotiable. The only feeling the western EU members have about the eastern members is the way Germany feels about them: A buffer zone with Russia. Russia matters more than the buffer zone and the buffer zone is negotiable. This is also the thinking of Russia. So, between EU and Russia, who is making Baltics safer? Neither. Nato maybe.
If my forecast is correct, then things are very bad. I do not want my forecast to be correct, but I have no reason to forecast differently.
Biden's second term is irrelevant. Right now the most relevant event is that the House of Reps has no speaker. All aid to Ukraine needs to be approved by the House, but this procedure has broken down now.
Due to this, the momentum of Nato support to Ukraine can be expected to rapidly diminish. There is nothing to be said of EU's support for Ukraine. It was only kept up in the wake of USA's support for Ukraine, to not look too bad, so with USA's support gone, the EU will get back to its ordinary strategic partnership with Russia.
Sometimes it
really sucks to be a Eastern European... But what you call "Biden's second term" is
not irrelevant: Here in the States, the consensus is coalescing around the likelihood that Ukraine's
компромат of Joe Biden will be meaningless, since the Democ-rats will abandon ship -to various non-extradition countries- and (sort-a) Republicans will have an extended chance to (sort-a) regroup — that is, see if they can reestablish the Republic.
Some people here are quite upset with (former) Speaker McCarthy. (He's from my state, and I know he's been a "professional" politician for his entire adult life — a bad sign! But he's been reliable and steadfast: And what he just did, refusing to run again for Speaker, shows that he quite understands the Democrats!) But I'm not.
He put the conservatives in Congress on point!
They now have to deliver...
Of course,
ersi, you want the U.S. to supply Ukraine funds and weapons (because you know the EU is feckless...), and you have legitimate fears of Russian aggression. Your hope that NATO membership means what most people thought it meant may be naive.
All I can say is that you have a better chance with American republicans than American democrats. And an America continually weakened is not in your best interest.
All I can say is that you have a better chance with American republicans than American democrats.
Really? Republicans of this century have been very bad for Nato. First they (W) rallied an alliance around Article 5 based on lies, making Nato an alliance of false causes, bringing about divisions with those who did not want anything to do with the false cause. Baltic countries of course went along enthusiastically, hoping to earn brownie points with Nato. (And now is the time to redeem the points.) Anyway, raising Article 5 based on lies was very damaging to Nato's image.
By now Republicans have devolved into Trumpites whose plan is to dissolve Nato. This is not what I'd call a better chance.
And an America continually weakened is not in your best interest.
The problem with America is that it is geographically too far away and will never care about anyone else's best interest, except via America's self-interest. Americans convert any and all issues into their own domestic policy, and if it doesn't convert, then it doesn't exist.
It is in Estonia's best interest to have a geopolitically self-conscious EU. This is not likely to happen ever, so we have to resort to second-rate and third-rate workarounds and fend off counterproductive baits like Macron's strategic autonomy. Unfortunately there is too much to fend off in the EU. The EU insists on shooting itself in the foot with a machine gun.
By now Republicans have devolved into Trumpites whose plan is to dissolve Nato. This is not what I'd call a better chance.
As many in my country would ask, What is the purpose of NATO? Was it
not to defend Europe from the Soviet Union?
With the Soviet Union dissolved, Europe might resume its fascination and repugnance with Russia... But Europe is
somehow incapable of either treating honestly with Russia or defending itself from an aggressive (and irredentist) Russia? Hence NATO (
i.e., the U.S.) must support (finance) the frustration of Russia's aims.
ersi, the United States has long preferred a neutrality regarding the perennial squabbles of Europe. (Those between the East and the West are of more recent origin, and compelling; but the ideology of Communism has so muddled the waters that what lies beneath the surface does not appear -clearly- to anyone.) Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?
As Ed Whelan noted (https://www.confirmationtales.com/p/joe-biden-embarrasses-elena-kagan) in his most recent "Confirmation Tales" column:
If you ever wonder why a senator seems ill-prepared for a confirmation hearing, just remember that even a very talented teacher can do only so much for some students.
You presume that the U.S. is a pupil, to be taught — but most Americans (rightly) assume they've graduated to "free agent" status.
Europe can do what it wants. Russia can do what it wants. So, too, can China. But -while the Leftists decry it- the United States still says "Don't Tread on Me!"
Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?
I know it is very hard for you, but try to understand: This is not about you. It is about the country called USA. USA does its own thing without asking you.
Europe can do what it wants. Russia can do what it wants. So, too, can China. But -while the Leftists decry it- the United States still says "Don't Tread on Me!"
So, a few things have slipped under the radar for you. Namely, USA also does what it wants, always has. And nobody ever trod on USA. Nobody. Ever. It's USA who keeps treading. Examples from only this century: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia and Syria. All ended disastrously. And Trump's jab at Iran could have brought about another disaster.
Treading on others may bite back one day, the way it is biting back at European ex-colonial powers. For example, UK used to colonise India, but now they have an Indian prime minister.
Here (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=2362.msg87161#msg87161) I wrote a messy two-post review of two books by Peter Zeihan. He aims to forecast the future based on strong geographical determinism and a presupposition that USA is voluntarily retreating on the world arena. The forecast is that disaster follows for most countries because USA is no longer there to help, but some countries, most notably USA itself, are saved and will be happy due to blessed geography.
I happen to disagree. I do not see any signs of USA retreating. Packing up the military bases is not an easy or quick matter or even reasonable. There are no signs of it happening.
USA has strong colonial instincts and keeps behaving accordingly. USA is mostly happy and eager to meddle in other nations' affairs, even though it does so inconsistently, in phases, sometimes changes sides, loses interest or simply loses. A good tactic in these meddlings is to have a coalition of shared guilt. That's Nato.
Why, I'd ask, as an American, should I care about European matters?
I know it is very hard for you, but try to understand: This is not about you. It is about the country called USA. USA does its own thing without asking you.
Your attitude is quite understandable: You think no factions of the U.S. electorate have consequential effects on U.S. policy, let alone determinative effects... That's how
all good Europeans think — or else you fear some faction of the electorate may actually succeed in retrieving the republic from the current mess.
You might be wrong!
———————————————————
What I think most confuses your analyses of U.S. politics is your failure to recognize the impact of the American Left's Maoist bent; and how badly that will affect the polity.
What I think most confuses your analyses of U.S. politics is your failure to recognize the impact of the American Left's Maoist bent; and how badly that will affect the polity.
You are not in position to assess anybody's analysis because you do not have any facts on U.S. politics. Instead of facts you have completely ludicrous alternative facts, such as in this case American Left's Maoist bent.
The fact is that there are two right-wing parties in USA. Nobody in U.S. politics is left, much less Maoist. Or can you name somebody? At least one name? Yup, thought so.
Why not worry about the dictator wannabe in your politics, instead of non-existent Maoists? It would get you onboard with some facts for a change.
As usual, you wave your hands — and ignore the reality that exists outside of you entrenched biases...
Sobeit.
(I must say I'm surprised to find no mention of this weekend's Hamas incursion into Israel on this site. Care to comment, on the lack of comment? :) )
As usual, you wave your hands — and ignore the reality that exists outside of you entrenched biases...
Sobeit.
Classic Trumpite/MAGA/Qanon projection.
I must say I'm surprised to find no mention of this weekend's Hamas incursion into Israel on this site.
There would have been no comment on Tucker either or the retired colonel without your opening it up for comments. You can do the same for the Israel/Palestine topic.
I also take particular issue with the claim that the EU has made the Baltic countries safer. Not too long ago you casually suggested (https://dndsanctuary.eu/index.php?topic=2927.msg87135#msg87135) "Russia picks up Estonia, we pick up Königsberg."
Exactly. The Baltic States existed at the pleasure of whoever were the tsar of Russia (or not, when that tsar was Stalin). Without European friends they would not exist at all.
Estonia's total population is 1,321,365. That is the population of a suburb. The area is 45,339 km², that is half the size of a large farm, or the same area as Russia occupied in 2014. In early 2022 they grabbed three more Estonias, and then in the following year Ukraine has taken one Estonia back.
The best hope for Estonia would be Finland's Cold War strategy: arm to the hilt to make an invasion costly, while not aggravating Russia too much, and being useful. However Finland has four times the population of Estonia and almost eight times the land. As long as the tsar was friendly (at least not too belligerent), or couldn't be bothered Estonia should be fine. But he could show displeasure with Estonian policies by e.g. having a really big military exercise really close to the border.
In 2004 Estonia joined NATO and EU. That greatly improved the country's security and economic prospects. However it also gave the two organisations a serious headache. Joining them didn't in itself give Estonia any more weapons or soldiers, the protection was in the articles 5 and 42.7 respectively, promising that the others should consider coming to their aid if attacked.
NATO's strength and EU's reputation depends on fulfilling that promise, and Estonia became the Achilles heel. If Russia did attack, NATO wouldn't be able to stop them. Harass, certainly, NATO has air superiority even that far east. But Russia would get to the coast relatively speedily. NATO would have to make an "Operation Overlord"? Would NATO risk that, and a potential nuclear war, for a small, barely populated piece of land. A gambling tsar might just try.
In that context Estonia as a NATO and EU member might be more sovereign, able to make more decisions displeasing the tsar, but more at risk. Even an imperialistic Russia doesn't really need the Baltic States much, but could be a distraction if Russia was struggling with NATO elsewhere. Ukraine perhaps.
A likely wargaming outcome before the Russian invasion would be a swap: Russia could likely take and hold Estonia and good chunks of Latvia and Lithuania, but lose Kaliningrad.
Now the Estonian position is stronger, and the Russian weaker. Putin or successor might worry less about getting angry glares if they were to "denazify" the Baltic States, their relationship with the West is as bad as it gets, but their position is weakened.
If will be far easier to reinforce Estonia from Finland than from Poland (especially with a Suwalki capture). Russia can't expect air superiority or naval superiority over the Baltic Sea, and Sweden is a good staging point.
I think the tripwire strategy would have been sufficient, given that Russia has far too much other to lose. But you are moving up rank from level 1 to level 2, maybe in time touching 3.
Level 0: Full Finlandisation
Level 1: An invasion would not be cost-effective
Level 2: An invasion would cost the invader more than the defender
Level 3: Outcome of an invasion would be unpredictable
Level 4: An invasion would not be feasible
But that distraction, gaining Estonia, would not be worth it if Russia lost Kaliningrad, a naval base they actually need(ed).
We are beyond that now. An invasion of Estonia would be risky on its own terms. They could, and probably would, try some form of hybrid warfare, but probably only with implausible deniability.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-govt-says-estonia-has-linked-baltic-cable-pipeline-damages-2023-10-23/
The Baltic States existed at the pleasure of whoever were the tsar of Russia (or not, when that tsar was Stalin). Without European friends they would not exist at all.
Russia kinda cares if Estonia exists or not. Namely, when Estonia exists, Russia wants it to cease to exist. In contrast, our Western "friends" don't care at all. And your entire line of reasoning is a solid proof of it.
Historically, there was a conference at Yalta. At that conference our Western "friends" gifted away to Stalin far more than Hitler had given. Moreover, Hitler really did not mean to gift away anything. He stabbed Stalin in the back and tried to take all Russia to himself. Whereas our Western "friends" casually stabbed in the back ALL countries between Germany and Russia, giving them away to Stalin, narrowly missing Austria. They gifted all those countries away and sincerely meant it so. This is how little they care about any of those countries, Estonia included. Our Western "friends" do not care whether any of those smaller countries exist, but they love to prop up Russia.
It is good to know facts and have no illusions. It's an illusion to think that Estonia has Western friends. Westerners are who they always were: colonists, just like Russia. They play the game they always played: the colonial game with Russia. Despite their rhetoric, Westerners don't care about the colonised. Their complete cold-heartedness is clear from the fact that Westerners pretend as if the colonial times were in the past and no longer happening, when they clearly continue to colonise even now. They pay more attention to Russia who is a potential competing colonist. Colonists care about each other. They don't care about the colonised. So no, Westerners are not friends.
Over the past decade we have seen how Ukraine is being fed to Russia. All other countries between Germany and Russia can reasonably expect the same fate, if they make the mistake of relying on Germany, France, UK, or USA. The best Estonia can do is to stir up some historical conscience to invite Westerners to stop repeating their past mistakes, but thus far this has only resulted in consistent evidence that Westerners have no conscience and are hell-bent on repeating past mistakes.
Would NATO risk that, and a potential nuclear war, for a small, barely populated piece of land. A gambling tsar might just try.
Being a nuclear coward means that there are no principles and no conscience. The West only has colonial instincts and respects the instincts of other colonial countries, dictators, autocrats and despots. Countries and peoples who never harmed anybody do not matter to our Western "friends".
But that distraction, gaining Estonia, would not be worth it if Russia lost Kaliningrad, a naval base they actually need(ed).
Assuming that Russia gives a damn about what anything is worth is a persistent delusion in the West. In reality, Russia only thinks "it's mine/ours" ("Наша!") and that's it. And in the big picture they think everything is theirs, somewhat like USA thinks. Worth it or not does not enter their mind.
We are beyond that now. An invasion of Estonia would be risky on its own terms. They could, and probably would, try some form of hybrid warfare, but probably only with implausible deniability.
Yet another very sad delusion in the West, as if hybrid warfare by Russia could or would happen at some point, instead of having been constantly battled for the past 20 or so years, if not longer. Russia's plausible deniability is there only for the useful idiots. With our Western "friends" so fast asleep and so hopelessly blind, there really is nothing left to say.
You never read before you answer, do you? That may be efficient, but it is also like talking to a mirror.
Your post pretended to be an answer to my points. It wasn't, so I take the liberty to return the same service.
Your main thrust is that the West, and somehow Germany in particular, is some sort of security guarantee in Europe. The historical test of this assumption was how WWII unfolded. UK and France had promised to ensure Poland's safety and independence. They failed at their promises in 1939 and UK betrayed all semblance of such promises at Yalta.
This century, similar promises to Ukraine (Budapest memorandum) were put to the test and failed in 2014 and are failing right now. This is how much such promises are worth.
The best we, the betrayed countries, can do is to remind the fact that there were promises and can you please try better. Or at least not repeat the same mistake again. The result is that the mistakes are being repeated as we speak.
At any rate, there is no denial that such were the promises and that there was a complete and utter betrayal. Repeatedly. Oh, and what has Germany been doing all this time? In 1939, Germany was Hitler. This century, Germany has been Schröder and Merkel and Scholz. Your only ground for assuming that Germany is any sort of security guarantee in Europe is absolute delusion.
At first Tucker got rather high-profile guests to his interviews, such as Trump, Pence, Orbán, Robert F Kennedy and the retired colonel here, but more lately his guests are becoming laughable, such as the guy who claims to have dated Obama. Laughable and ridiculous guests are more appropriate to Tucker's own profile.
Putin strongly opposes Tucker Carlson fading into oblivion, so he invited Tucker over for an interview (https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-tucker-carlson-interview-6fb00b1f2d5f4bc639518b4a3445e1f8), due out today. It's not Putin being interviewed by Tucker. It's Tucker amplifying Putin's message to the MAGA-hats. Obviously there will be a message regarding Ukraine so obvious that I won't mention it here. Rather, I predict that Putin will issue a near-direct endorsement of Trump. Lifting Tucker's profile serves the same purpose.
Edit: The interview is out now. Tucker says right up front that he found it shocking that Putin's justification for the Ukraine war is a discourse in Russian mythical history. Whereas I find it somewhat surprising that Tucker claims to find this particular feature, which happens to be Putin's defining feature, shocking. After all, in his own mind Tucker went to interview Putin and one would assume that, as a self-proclaimed journalist, Tucker was prepared about his subject. Evidently not. All Tucker's pretensions to journalism are gone now, if anybody still entertained any. It was not Tucker interviewing Putin. It was Putin getting his message out to the world at large and to the MAGA-hats, and Tucker getting his profile upgraded from a basement conspiratorialist to a collaborationist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOCWBhuDdDo
I have not watched the whole interview, so I am not sure if my prediction about Putin endorsing Trump hit the mark. The Ukraine bit was so obvious that it does not qualify as a prediction.