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Topic: Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 199905 times)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #625
The consensus is over that AGW is happening, not necessarily how much or the exact impacts.
Does what we can actually quantify mean:

       
  • It's nothing to worry about

  •    
  • It's alarming, and potentially catastrophic

  •    
  • We can mitigate the impacts

  •    
  • We can't do anything (other than:)

  •    
  • We have to pauperize most of the world!

I'm still confused about what you believe, Sang. If it's the trivial "human activity affects the environment" or even "modern fossil fuel economies are warming the earth's climate" — your own "by how much" brings you back to what I'd call science…
Which -it seems to me- you'd like to see stopped: We have a consensus! Case closed.
I don't think science can work that way…
Likewise. I don't think you have (…or if not you, a great many who wield power in this "debate"…) a coherent plan; at least, not one they'd be willing to share openly.
How, I ask, will we find out the effects of CO2 as the result of burning fossil fuels?
(Might we continue to do science…? Nah! We got us a Consensus! We don' need more than our stinkin' badges!)

There have been many studies focused upon this. There have been little to no such showing anything that matches recent observations… (Of course, "observations" have to be adjusted — to accommodate the models which don't jibe with them… But -ahem!- the proxies won't cooperate! Oops! But -I ask you, as someone who appreciates science- shouldn't the models be fixed, rather than the data?)
Of course, the expected global warming got lost in the oceans! (Had not real scientists considered three quarters of the earth's surface, when ostensibly studying the global climate?
(Again, I ask: What supports the contention that there is a global climate? :) )
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Sang, I don't care about any measurement of "consensus". (You found the one social scientist who attempted to use the same silly measurement; and he failed! Much to your glee! His study was better than your 97% ones; but it was still silly: How many papers before Einstein's predicted the atom bomb? How many gave us a new understanding of space/time? I only care about the science and the bizarre political effects of the activist science…
Consensus is what people do, when they haven't a clue…
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Let's get back to this topic, after the Paris confab! (Will they do cospaly? :) ) You try so very hard to sound reasonable about this… But you always pole-vault from reasonable to extreme -and unsupported- positions…
Thanks for playing "Lefty-Righty" again! :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #626

Accusing science of group think only serves to make yourself look uninformed.

This is putting it too mildly. If one refuses to be informed by science in a scientific matter, then one is uninformed, scientifically. But one may be informed on the topic by something else instead, say, politics :)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #627
ersi, when matters scientific become so politicized that scientists are pressured to either agree with the consensus or quit doing science — well, you get Lysenko-ism.
You remember that, right? :)
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What about the AGW (I mean, CAGW…) trope so entices you? Is it the advent of a new apocalypse? :)
If your country (region) can't figure out how to deal with the pollution you've created — what? You want other countries far away to "feel your pain" and pay you for being stupid? :)

Do you really think that the world would be better off, reverting to feudalism? :) (I ask, because I don't see you offering anything else…)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #628
Sang: Let me 'splain somethin' to you, Lucy: If a scientific theory predicts, and those predictions fail to happen; that means that the theory is wrong.
Of course, if a "scientific" theory doesn't predict — it isn't a scientific theory…

Why does the IPCC view of AGW capture your attention? (You aren't likely to have read their reports — at least, not beyond the Summary for Policymakers.) I do understand that climatology is a difficult subject; it is fairly new, as seen by the tyros!
Are you just prone to apocalyptic scenarios? Or are you simply willing to use anything to support your political agenda?

I know what you've said: Free enterprise! Green technologies!
What, I ask, is keeping you from achieving such…? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #629

What about the AGW (I mean, CAGW…) trope so entices you?

What makes you think it's just a trope? In what scientific and non-ideological way did you arrive at this idea?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #630
Sang: Let me 'splain somethin' to you, Lucy: If a scientific theory predicts, and those predictions fail to happen; that means that the theory is wrong.
Of course, if a "scientific" theory doesn't predict — it isn't a scientific theory…


Let me 'splain something to you, big guy. It isn't just predications, it's actual observed temperatures.  But having said that, pop quiz, wise guy. Tell me which IPCC projections were within 0.1 degrees C of the actual global temperature and which were further away and "'splain' " why. What captures my attention more than the IPCC itself is the trope that "the predications" were wrong, when in fact many of them were pretty damn accurate (in some years a bit wrong for underestimating the amount of warming, but regardless of long-term climate change there are warmer years and cooler years.) Can you answer that, or does that involve checking too much actual science for you in lieu of political blogs?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #631
And yet it doesn't approach consensus thinking. The consensus is over that AGW is happening, not necessarily how much or the exact impacts. Accusing science of group think only serves to make yourself look uninformed. Meanwhile, I'm still eagerly awaiting any actual data from you.

Oakdale is not interested in that, he only wants some attention. And a lot of attention we've been giving to him.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #632
it's actual observed temperatures
Apparently, you've neither read chapter 4 of Longhurst's book nor followed the topic elsewhere. (I was relieved, when I read that our modern buoys specially designed to measure ocean temperatures -SSTs- were "corrected" to conform to the engine-intake and bucket-over-the-side figures from the previous two centuries! Way to go! team CAGW.

You do know (don't you?) that the mere correlation of atmospheric CO2 and "measured" surface temperature doesn't explain much of anything — except in a Cargo Cult sort of way?
The reason I discount alarmist claims of catastrophic global warming predicated upon rising levels of atmospheric CO2 is in part empirical and in part theoretical: To start with the latter, the models mostly focusing on CO2 predicted much more warming, and at a faster rate, than we've actually seen; to me, this means that their focus is, at best, blurry. (A theory that is dis-confirmed is wrong, and needs fixing.) The theory is deficient…
About the former: I'm sure the alarmists will attempt to "adjust" the data you and I have lived through, to save the theory…in 2050, if not sooner! :)
Tell me which IPCC projections were within 0.1 degrees C of the actual global temperature and which were further away and "'splain' " why? Blah, blah, blah…
There's no credible justification for that degree of accuracy; certainly not, given the massaging of the data we have…

Really: I don't understand why the usual suspects don't simply return to their earlier trope… "The models don't make predictions; they present scenarios!" That works, in Hollywood; and in the liberal press. What more is needed? :)

…Oh. Science!
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In the good news/bad news category, there's this… (HT, Judith Curry — just another "political" blogger.) And, perhaps good news: this. And this.

Sang, would you like to show those info-mercials of polar bears stranded on free-floating ice again? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #633
How do you know X? how do you know how do you know X? how do you know how do you know how do you know X?
Replace X for climatic change (and a few other things). Oakdale, you sound like a broken record.

You've been very useful to me, when people don't believe me when I say that there are Americans against stopping climatic change I always point them to your writings. You spare me a lot of of work, thanks. :)
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #634
The reason I discount alarmist claims of catastrophic global warming predicated upon rising levels of atmospheric CO2 is in part empirical and in part theoretical: To start with the latter, the models mostly focusing on CO2 predicted much more warming, and at a faster rate, than we've actually seen; to me, this means that their focus is, at best, blurry.
But did you know it's not all alarmist? Overall the science is sound and further, you're caught up in projections instead of empirical data of what's already happened, not adjusted in any way. In suchandsuch year, the average global temperature was X, the next year it was Y and these are the CO2 readings, taken in different locations and at different attitudes. Raw, unadjusted and non-projected data shows this. Right now we don't know the end result. The worst case scenario is temperature increases could cause presently frozen methane to release into the atmosphere, causing a run away greenhouse and mass extinction. But nobody credible is saying this WILL happen. You're confusing doomsday scenarios like that for mainstream climate science that continues to refine its methods, improve its models but mostly does field research.

Even though the doomsday scenario is unlikely, it seems foolish to continue using polluting technologies and miss out on the Third Industrial Revolutions economic benefits. I'd much prefer the GDP to rise instead of the temperatures.

And I also note Longhurst is a biological oceanographer not a climatologist. Don't ask am air conditioner repairman to fix your car or vice/versa. Why is that the skeptics are from other fields? Another example of what's so silly about this: you need to know about the fall of Rome. Do you ask the Literature Professor or the History Professor and why? I should hope the answer is obvious. Right now the people on your side are asking social anthropology professors about the climate instead of the climatology professor....  Just the Literature professor is liable to make make mistakes, so does Longhurst:

Quote
One fundamental! flaw!in! the! use! of! this! number!is!the!assumption! that! small!
changes!in!surface!air!temperature must!represent the!accumulation!or!loss!of!heat!by!
the!planet because!of! the!presence of!greenhouse!gases!in! the!atmosphere and,!with!
some!reservations,! this!is!a reasonable!assumption!on!land.!! But at!sea,!and!so!over!
>70%!of!the!Earth’s!surface, change!in!the!temperature!of!the!air!a!few!metres!above!
the! surface may! reflect!nothing!more! than! changing vertical!motion!in! the! ocean in!
response!to!changing wind!stress!on!the!surface;!consequently, changes!in sea!surface!
temperature!(and!in!air!a!few!metres!above)!do!not!necessarily represent significant!
changes in!global!heat!content although!this!is!the!assumption!customarily!made.


Extraneous exclamation points are a product of the copy/paste. Anyway, that's nice but most of the readings have nothing to do with the ocean :p So I'm off to go ask the Catholic priest about Methodist doctrine and the Methodist preacher about Catholic doctrine. They're both Christians, ministers and consider themselves men of God, so I see little need to ask the correct clergy about those denominations. In case you don't get it, people tend to lump all scientists together, but an expert in one field doesn't imply knowledge of all fields.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #635
In suchandsuch year, the average global temperature was X
Does an average global temperature have a meaning…that applies to reality? Or is it simply a case of mathematization? :)

And I also note Longhurst is a biological oceanographer not a climatologist.
Why do you keep repeating this? Are Oreskes, Cook or Lewandowsky climatologists? :)
By the same token, are Curry, Lindzen, Christy, Spencer…?
You protesteth too much!
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Extraneous exclamation points are a product of the copy/paste.
You might have fixed that…
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #636
Why do you keep repeating this?

Because we have all these "skeptics" who aren't even in the field. It seems like it would be easier be skeptical of a theory if you're not actually researching in it.
Are Oreskes, Cook or Lewandowsky climatologists?

But they conducted a survey, which is what people in their field do. They set out to disprove another field's theory without actually researching extensively collecting it's data.

Longhurst himself says:

Quote
All this leaves us in the uncomfortable  position of having two competing
mechanisms before us,  and a choice to make: (i) the observed heat gains are
attributable to anthropogenic heat that has entered the oceans or (ii)changes in solar
radiation received at the sea surface have been sufficient to cause the  warming.
The! IPCC asks no such questions, and rejects outright anything other than an
anthropogenic effect.!
Does he seriously think the IPCC doesn't know the oceans act as a heat sink? And surely he hasn't missed the studies in which the effects of solar solar radiation where examined. As said previously, the amount of solar radiation has actually been decreasing, not increasing, therefore if the oceans were relying solely on the sun for warming, they should actually be cooling for having received less energy from our star. Longhurst at least make some scientific arguments, but in this instance falls back to a long disproven idea that bizarrely remains a favorite in the skeptic community.

But obviously I wasn't with him when he wrote the book, therefore its easy for me to poke holes in it; as easy as it is for him poke a little hole in the arguments of thousands of climatologists when he wasn't there for the climatologists to consider if we're entering a new solar cycle in which global warming wouldn't come as surprise (and rejecting the notion upon examining solar data.)  Yup, being the critic is by far the easier path than being the creator of the work.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #637
Because we have all these "skeptics" who aren't even in the field.
And all "these skeptics" who are…which you choose to ignore.
[…] it would be easier [to] be skeptical of a theory if you're not actually researching in it
…Likewise, it's easier to accept a political consensus — without understanding or even being interested in the science (the practice and the results…) that should (but perhaps don't? :) ) support it.

BTW: Of course a marine biologist would know nothing of the oceans' workings… Why, he'd have to be a special specialist! :)

Seriously, Sang, why do you support so vociferously the mostly political output of a decidedly political UN group? (Thousands of climatologists? Try hundreds, and perhaps only a few score who hew to the extreme views supporting CAGW. But the politicized bureaucracies of various "associations" have no problem, taking political positions!) You don't even support their remediational strategies…
That leads me to believe that your hostility and animosity is ideological: Some of the so-called skeptics are political conservatives… A sin you can't abide.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #639
Oakdale brings up a point worth thinking about.

Way back when, I used to belong to Boilermakers/Blacksmiths union. Typical of most unions, they never saw a Democrat they didn't like nor a Republican they didn't hate with a passion. If you only got your information from the official paper of the union, you'd think the entire membership would vote Democrat.

Now, many members did in fact do just that. But then you have folk like me at the time, who think independent of what the union hierarchy was trying to push-- people who voted for somebody else. Some independent, some Republican and some mixed-ticket (separate from independent here because I thought maybe 3rd or even 4th party).

So--- when somebody here (I won't mention names, but you know who you are) puts up a long list of organizations that say we must do something to stop climate change, I openly wonder how many of the scientists within those groups stand with it heart and soul, and how many would openly question it IF their voices were allowed to be heard.

No, I don't trust "consensus". In my mind, it's just another word for censorship of any opinion that doesn't toe the party line.
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #640
Nobody tried to silence anyone else for having a different theory. It's just one hasn't been presented that can withstand peer review. When one claims climate change is because of increased solar activity and the opposite has been happening, it won't gain scientific traction for example. The consensus is because no other viable theories seem to exist and not because of some nefarious plots straight from the X-Files. In fact, this is not the only consensus in science regardless of field. Sometimes the data only points in one direction and not because it's been rigged to so.

It's just that this issue has been politicized by fossil fuel money. Did you hear about this corruption yet, Congressional Energy Chairs Form Fundraising Committee, Rake In Oil, Gas Cash As They Push Bills For Fossil Fuel Industry . Further down, the articles notes bills being pushed by those two to "streamline" the regulatory process allows omission of critical environmental impact data from fossil fuel companies about their activities. Then it turns out Exxon-Mobile may have been illegally surpassing data from its own researchers indicating the burning of fossil fuels causes global warming. If you're looking for censorship, lies, deceit and corruption, there's plenty to be had. It's just know where you think.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #641
Nobody tried to silence anyone else for having a different theory.
So: No one has called for RICO prosecutions of "deniers"? :)
It's just one hasn't been presented that can withstand peer review.
If you mean review by the "Hockey Team," you're correct… If you mean journal review, eh, not so much.
When one claims climate change is because of increased solar activity and the opposite has been happening, it won't gain scientific traction for example.
Yet when one claims "climate change" is because of increased anthropogenic COsub2[/i], a few inexperienced scientists (and a lot of leftist politicians!) pile on!
(Apparently, you still believe our atmosphere is warming… At this point, I'm ready to discount everything but satellite measurements; and I don't give them much credence, within proper error estimations.)
The consensus is because no other viable theories seem to exist[…]
You, of course, mean "politically viable"… Simple models using nothing more than the pre-industrial range of variations (of temperature) give better matches to current observations than the best GCMs. (The anomalous "trends" keep coming back, after previous data have been "adjusted" — and that doesn't make you suspicious? :) ) But I get your point: Politicians won't accept a theory -well, a certain kind of politician- that doesn't provide them the means of control…
It's just that this issue has been politicized by fossil fuel money.
Hansen's '88 congressional testimony doesn't count? :) (Anyone with a computer can look up how he rigged it…)
Then it turns out Exxon-Mobile may have been illegally surpassing data from its own researchers indicating the burning of fossil fuels causes global warming.
Most people recognize such charges as smear and innuendo; but not you, Sang.
Like Chicago's current mayor quipped some years back: Never let a crisis go to waste!
But what do you do, without a crisis, eh? :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #643
I liked this early-on trope:
Quote
As the comedian John Oliver so aptly put it in commenting on a recent Gallup poll that found that one in four Americans disbelieve in climate change: “You don’t need people’s opinion on a fact. You might as well have a poll asking: ‘Which number is bigger, 15 or 5?’ Or ‘Do owls exist’ or ‘Are there hats?’”
…Anyone else ever wonder why so many CAGW proponents quote comedians? (But they don't quote Al Sleet, the hippy-dippy weatherman! George Carlin, for those of you age-challenged… :))
Quote
To reject a cascade of scientific evidence that shows that the global temperature is warming and that humans are almost certainly perhaps might be, but we can't prove it, [nor] the cause of it, is not good reasoning, even if some long-shot hypothesis comes along in 50 years to show us why we were wrong. [And that's why we have to take drastic action, right now!]
But what about the children!? :tears: (I'd ask, what about the politicians?)
Quote
In scientific reasoning, there is such a thing as warrant. Our beliefs must be justified. This means that we should believe what the evidence tells us, even while science insists that we must also try our best to show how any given theory might be wrong. Science will sometimes miss the mark, but its successful track record suggests that there is no superior competitor in discovering the facts about the empirical world. The fact that scientists sometimes make mistakes in their research or conclusions is no reason for us to prefer opinions over facts.

True skepticism must be more than an ideological reflex; skepticism must be earned by a prudent and consistent disposition to be convinced only by evidence. When we cynically pretend to withhold belief long past the point at which ample evidence should have convinced us that something is true, we have stumbled past skepticism and landed in the realm of willful ignorance. This is not the realm of science, but of ideological crackpots. And we don’t need a poll to tell us that this is the doorstep to denialism.
"There is no pause… The pause you were looking for isn't here… Look elsewhere…" I know it's a slight problem, for True Believers, but the failure of all those multi-million dollar computer simulations to predict the actual climate -no matter how much it's been "adjusted" to match- is embarrassing. (One would think that trained scientists would be… Rather than yell pejorative epithets at those with whom they disagree.) But -of course- it's in the deep ocean, hiding! That global warming is hiding from scientists! Bad global warming!

Please read this again:
Quote
In scientific reasoning, there is such a thing as warrant. Our beliefs must be justified. This means that we should believe what the evidence tells us […]
True skepticism must be more than an ideological reflex; skepticism must be earned by a prudent and consistent disposition to be convinced only by evidence. [Not consensus opinion? :) ]

Now (but before, too…) any competent editor would have interceded:
Quote
When we cynically pretend to withhold belief long past the point at which ample evidence should have convinced us that something is true, we have stumbled past skepticism and landed in the realm of willful ignorance. This is not the realm of science, but of ideological crackpots. And we don’t need a poll to tell us that this is the doorstep to denialism.

But the NYT seems not to have any competent editors nowadays.
(BTW: "When we cynically withhold belief" are we pretending? You mean, author, that the climatologists are dissemblers…?* :) Myself, I just think most are self-deluded.
And the field of climatology is vigorously trying to relegate actual scientists to the realm of "Denialism"…if they don't toe the line of the consensus… Why?

Certainly, that's a good sign of a healthy "atmosphere" for science… :(
You don't need to be ashamed of yourself; I'm ashamed, for you.
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* No. You just mean anyone who disagrees with you must be evil… God help you!
The Devil already is… :)
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Sang, for your benefit I post this:
"Lee McIntyre is a research fellow at the Center for Philosophy and History of Science at Boston University" and not a climatologist… :)
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #644
Again, I ask you, Sang. As a professional, how do you support the "97%" consensus? :)
Quote
In social science, it's common to use trained human raters to subjectively rate or score some variable — it can be children's behavior on a playground, interviews of all kinds, and often written material, like participants' accounts of a past emotional experience. And we have a number of analytical and statistical tools that go with such rating studies. But we would never use human raters who have an obvious bias with respect to the subject of their ratings, who desire a specific outcome for the study, and who would be able to deliver that outcome via their ratings. That's completely nuts. It's so egregious that I don't think it even occurs to us as something to look out for. It never happens. At least I've never heard of it happening. There would be no point in running such a study, since it would be dismissed out of hand and lead to serious questions about your ethics.

But it's happening in climate science. Sort of. These junk studies are being published in climate science journals, which are probably not well-equipped to evaluate what are ultimately social science studies (in method). And I assume the journals weren't aware that these studies used political activists as raters.
(source)

But -of course- he's only a PHD candidate… So, what he says about papers in his field mean little or nothing, compared to what a BS grad says. (Why, I ask, are you so miffed? You don't like Mexicans?!) Durarte's bone fides seem -to me- to be pretty solid. But some people have to know an academic's position on certain politically "sensitive" subjects, before they can decide if they're — Oh. That's the point, for you. Isn't it?
Are they compliant? Are they agreeing with us? Are they amenable to peer pressure? Are they contrarians? Are they not "go with the flow" folk, like us? :)
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Yes, I'm hitting "below the belt" — which is what you've always done…
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #645
Yet when one claims "climate change" is because of increased anthropogenic COsub2[/i], a few inexperienced scientists (and a lot of leftist politicians!) pile on!

Bingo! Your tell is "leftist." You see this as a struggle between Left and Right. This is just science. As the link Belfrager shared points out:

Quote
True skepticism must be more than an ideological reflex; skepticism must be earned by a prudent and consistent disposition to be convinced only by evidence. When we cynically pretend to withhold belief long past the point at which ample evidence should have convinced us that something is true, we have stumbled past skepticism and landed in the realm of willful ignorance. This is not the realm of science, but of ideological crackpots. And we don’t need a poll to tell us that this is the doorstep to denialism.


Unfortunately you've joined the ranks of ideologically driven crackpots, kneejerking against what you incorrectly perceive to a liberal agenda. The article notes that you should attempt to debunk every given scientific theory. Every attempt to do so, be from earnest scientists or ideologically driven crackpots, has failed. Miserably.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #646
Quote
The politically driven push to manufacture a premature consensus on human caused climate change and create an argument based on bootstrapped plausibility has misdirected climate science for the past two decades.  The hockey stick attempted to wipeout secular variations prior to the 20th century, but even Mike’s Nature trick spliced the early 20th century warming as an integral part of the blade.  At most, only a small fraction of the early 20th century warming was caused by CO2 (this issue was recently addressed in a post by Vaughan Pratt).
(source)

Sang, you often go mute! I understand why: You don't know what to say! (Of course, you know what to say — when liberal bias is mentioned…)

What science says CO2 is a major driver of earth's climate?
————————————————————————————————————
As the link Belfrager shared points out […]
New York Times op-eds usually point out — what? :) Liberal talking points.
I read the piece: It was a political screed.
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman
 (iBook G4 - Panther | Mac mini i5 - El Capitan)

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #647
At most, only a small fraction of the early 20th century warming was caused by CO2 (this issue was recently addressed in a post by Vaughan Pratt).

At that time, there was an increase in solar activity, as opposed to a decrease which what's happening now. Nobody is silly enough to think the sun doesn't factor into climate trends. However, now we've entered in a period of increased average global temperatures but decreased solar activity. This article fails to bring any new data to light or example what's happening now. It's a political piece cloaked scientific language designed to sow seeds of doubt among the scientifically unsophisticated and nothing more.

Oblige me to make an analogy for you. Let's say there was a murder with multiple suspects. But Bill's alibi checks out and others can place him well away from the murder at the time it took place. Likewise for John, Paul and however many suspects in the crime you want. But witnesses can place Calvin at the scene when the murder took place. Further, the police discover he has a gun matching the type used in the crime. That alone does 100% prove Calvin did it, but there's a damn good chance he did and further investigation will fill in the five percent doubt of his guilt. But the "crime" in question is global warming. Was Solar Activity there? Nope. Variations Earth's orbit/ axis? Nope. Increased CO2? Yes? Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? Yes. Was there a nature reason for the increased CO2? Nopers. So anthropogenic CO2 emissions remains remains the prime suspect. I noticed the article you offered said "over 40% of the warming since 1911 occurred prior to 1944.” That means 60 percent of it occurred AFTER 1944. To stretch analogy, if a past murderer died, obviously he couldn't have committed the recent one, could he? That might sound like smartass question and maybe to some extent it is. But the fact is the suspect in global warming during the time periods discussed in the article "died."

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #648

At that time, there was an increase in solar activity, as opposed to a decrease which what's happening now. Nobody is silly enough to think the sun doesn't factor into climate trends.

But when the sun has an effect, then human activity doesn't! This is obvious, logical, and RIGHT, because Oakdale is a RIGHTist.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming

Reply #649
New York Times op-eds usually point out — what?  :)  Liberal talking points.
I read the piece: It was a political screed.

That was not an op-ed but an article in "The stone", a blog by contemporary philosophers at the NYT. The only part of the newspaper worthy of reading.

A screed? not only thousands and thousands of scientists are connected at some secret organization against Oakdale and the oil tycoons but philosophers have joined it as well...

because Oakdale is a RIGHTist.

Is he? doubt it very much, he doesn't even comprehend the concepts of Country, Nation and State, fundamental for real Right thinking.
I see him more as a JOKERist. I like him. :)


A matter of attitude.